Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why's a Mid Wales/North Shropshire football club conducting polls of Scottish voting intentions?

[minionofmidas]

They're thinking of relocating again. Oswestry is too close for comfort to Llansantffraid.

(And I didn't have to look up what you're talking about. That's pretty sad, I think.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're thinking of relocating again. Oswestry is too close for comfort to Llansantffraid.

A lot of Welsh clubs have been trying to move grounds of late, without much success. Bangor City were supposed to move away from Farrar Road to a new site on the outskirts years ago, but things have fallen through a couple of times. Will probably happen at some point because the stadium is falling to pieces and the area it's in is a bit of a shithole these days.

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[afleitch]

Aww. What a cute little poll Did you make it yourself TNS? Oh wait you did.

[Хahar 🤔]

They're thinking of relocating again. Oswestry is too close for comfort to Llansantffraid.

(And I didn't have to look up what you're talking about. That's pretty sad, I think.)

To be fair, TNS is the only Welsh club that I can name off the top of my head.

[redcommander]

How likely are the Tories to pick up seats?

[Leftbehind]

They're certain to. Scottish Parliament is elected using AMS, so its PR regional seats will convert into a few for them even if they did miss out on seats through the FPTP constituency votes.

[RodPresident]

Question is: Labour will get a majority government in coalition with greens or will have to go to a minority government...Now, LibDems in Scotland are more isolated in cordon sanitaire than BNP and Tommy Sheridan...

[afleitch]

How likely are the Tories to pick up seats?

Notional results for the new seats have them on 18 or 19 seats; already an improvement before a vote has been cast. Opinion polls understimate the Tories (in I think all but a few polls conducted before and during the last 3 campaigns); if their voters are motivated they may make an improvement. Their target is 20 seats, but then again it has been for a while.

Question is: Labour will get a majority government in coalition with greens or will have to go to a minority government...Now, LibDems in Scotland are more isolated in cordon sanitaire than BNP and Tommy Sheridan...

Trust me, if any party need the Lib Dems to govern they will ask them! Both Annabel Goldie the Tory leader and Tavish Scott the Lib Dem leader have said they won't allow 2007 to happen again; i.e a single party minority government relying on abstentions. Given that neither the SNP or Labour will get a majority and with the smaller parties unwilling to abstain (during the election of an FM for example) a deal with have to be struck; the Lib Dems will be the attractive option even now. However if Labour have the edge over the SNP but can't strike a deal, the possibility of an SNP-Tory coalition is suprising strong (a few privately have admitted they should have made this happen in 2007)

The SNP are likely to 'give up' on independence at least formally (though they are waiting for Nicola Sturgeon to become leader to do it officially; she has never been one to talk up independence to as fantastical levels as Alex Salmond) in exchange for 'Devolution Max' which the Tories in Scotland and the Coalition would be favourable to.

It's worth noting that the main parties have backed the extension of the next term to 2016 (5 years) in order not to clash with the Westminster Election. So this is a big election.

[minionofmidas]

Extension of the term? Is that dried & dusted?

[afleitch]

Extension of the term? Is that dried & dusted?

Not legislatively; there has to be an amendment to the Scotland Act which co-incidently is up for discussion anyway.

The problem is that a 2016 election would clash with the Council elections which have already been brought forward from 2011 to 2012 (and then every 4 years after) in order not to clash with the 2011 Holyrood elections. So they might have to be put forward again.

[tpfkaw]

The SNP are likely to 'give up' on independence at least formally (though they are waiting for Nicola Sturgeon to become leader to do it officially; she has never been one to talk up independence to as fantastical levels as Alex Salmond) in exchange for 'Devolution Max' which the Tories in Scotland and the Coalition would be favourable to.

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tories don't want to at least privately encourage Scottish independence, since that would give them very nearly a permanent majority (yes, I understand that they are the Conservative and Unionist Party, but still).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tories don't want to at least privately encourage Scottish independence, since that would give them very nearly a permanent majority

Probably one of the sillier myths about British politics and also one of the most popular.

[afleitch]

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tories don't want to at least privately encourage Scottish independence, since that would give them very nearly a permanent majority

Probably one of the sillier myths about British politics and also one of the most popular.

Essentially if the Conservatives in Scotland ceased to be unionist, then it would have no impact on the parties fortunes anywhere but in Scotland. Moving away from unionism would kill the party in Scotland.

The Scottish Tories still have to deal with a small but significant fringe who simply don't vote at Holyrood at all and have spent the past 3 elections trying to legitimise the Parliament (and opposing the settlement in 1997 didn't help) The Tories have managed to make progress, particularly in 2007.

There are also those who vote may consider voting Tory at Holyrood, but don't believe that they take Holyrood seriously so there is a fine balancing act. On that note there seems to be more of the latter infact, given past results in West Renfrewshire, Cunninghame North and Stirling.

Abandoning unionism would see unionist voters stay at home and drive other Tory voters into the hands of the other parties.

There is never a 'win' situation for the Tories in Scotland. Plain and simple

[You kip if you want to...]

Which of the following is most likely?

Labour/Green coalition
Labour/Liberal
Labour minority
SNP minority
SNP/Green
SNP/Tory
SNP/Liberal

I've been reading about Labour/Green or SNP/Tory trying to form if the numbers are there...

[Leftbehind]

Lab + Green, if the polls are anything to go off. On a seat calculator, the predictions are that SNP could only get away with governing via a three-party coalition, and that'd have to inevitably be SNP-Tory-Liberal - which, as you might have guessed, would have very toxic connotations for SNP.

I doubt Labour would be daft enough to coalesce with the Lib Dems, as it'd rob them of some very useful ammunition, and essentially legitimise the Lib Dems enormously on the national stage, in that they'd look centrist, and able to work with both, rather than the Tory stooges that they do currently.

Labour & Green is the logical coalition.

[joevsimp]

even with a potential and feasable return to 6 or 7 seats, will the greens want to go into a more solid relationship with labour than they did with the snp though?

[afleitch]

The 'Scottish Opinion' Poll
 
Constituency

Lab 43%, SNP 37%, Con 11%, LD 5%

Regional

Lab 44%, SNP 37%, Con 11%, LD 4%

---

I have no idea who that outfit are (BPIX spin off?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

[afleitch]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

I will

Based on general feeling and various other things (including some doorstep stuff i've done) I'd say.

            C    L
Labour 35 - 33
SNP     33 - 32
Tory    16 - 15
Lib       12 - 10
Oth       4 -  10 = of which - Green 4, Trots/Swingers 2

Give me 5 grand The Scotsman and they are all yours.

[Insula Dei]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

I will

Based on general feeling and various other things (including some doorstep stuff i've done) I'd say.

            C    L
Labour 35 - 33
SNP     33 - 32
Tory    16 - 15
Lib       12 - 10
Oth       4 -  10 = of which - Green 4, Trots/Swingers 2

Give me 5 grand The Scotsman and they are all yours.

Is someone being a tad bit optimistic about the National Government's performance?

[afleitch]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

I will

Based on general feeling and various other things (including some doorstep stuff i've done) I'd say.

            C    L
Labour 35 - 33
SNP     33 - 32
Tory    16 - 15
Lib       12 - 10
Oth       4 -  10 = of which - Green 4, Trots/Swingers 2

Give me 5 grand The Scotsman and they are all yours.

Is someone being a tad bit optimistic about the National Government's performance?

No.

The Lib Dems may fall short of 12% share (which would be only around 75% of the vote they polled in 2007), however the Tories are currently polling above what opinion polls in the past 3 elections (when conditions were better for them...) predicted, which leads me to predict their vote share will remain steady. It may even increase.

[Insula Dei]

Might there not have been some degree of on-the-day anti-Government voting benefitting the Tories in the past few elections? (honest question)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might there not have been some degree of on-the-day anti-Government voting benefitting the Tories in the past few elections? (honest question)

The Scottish Tories are no longer in a position to be able to benefit much from that. What they ought to be concerned about is something a little different; changed turnout patterns (as in partisan, not geographical) now that Labour are in opposition in Westminster. Though that's more a threat to their position out here than up there.

[afleitch]

Might there not have been some degree of on-the-day anti-Government voting benefitting the Tories in the past few elections? (honest question)

The Scottish Tories are no longer in a position to be able to benefit much from that. What they ought to be concerned about is something a little different; changed turnout patterns (as in partisan, not geographical) now that Labour are in opposition in Westminster. Though that's more a threat to their position out here than up there.

True. Though I think the seats the Tories hold (including or excluding the notional gain in Eastwood; I haven't made up my mind on that one) are safe enough that they should return their Tory MSP. Of course they are now perhaps over-reliant on 'names'; which is why McLetchie is still an MSP and why they aren't so keen to let him stand down. I think this strategy is going to do some long term damage to the party but that's another issue.

I feel, and this is felt a little on the ground, that the Tory vote in Scotland as stripped back as it is (and only varying by the odd percentage point over the past 14 years) is not de-motivated by the Tories either in Westminster or in Holyrood and we should perform well. It's certainly not in the mood to vote tactically to oust the SNP or passively put Labour in power.

The SNP are probably stronger amongst the Managerial/Professional economic class than they were in 2007. This is the Tories main danger. If the SNP pile on votes in Eastwood it might mean Labour may just have it's head above the water enough to take the seat on a split vote. That's why I found the council result in East Kilbride West a few months back, interesting (the ward is the top 5% managerial/professional wards in Scotland) as it seemed to allay my fears somewhat.