UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM sez: Con 33 (-2), LDem 30 (-1), Labour 28 (+2). Poll done over the weekend.

Looks like more MoE bouncyness. Grauniad are trying to make a story out of a 'dull' poll by playing around with poll internals. lol.

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM sez: Con 33 (-2), LDem 30 (-1), Labour 28 (+2). Poll done over the weekend.

Looks like more MoE bouncyness. Grauniad are trying to make a story out of a 'dull' poll by playing around with poll internals. lol.

The Sun does it everyday, more or less.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM sez: Con 33 (-2), LDem 30 (-1), Labour 28 (+2). Poll done over the weekend.

Looks like more MoE bouncyness. Grauniad are trying to make a story out of a 'dull' poll by playing around with poll internals. lol.

The Sun does it everyday, more or less.

I wouldn't know, but I'll take your word for it

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM sez: Con 33 (-2), LDem 30 (-1), Labour 28 (+2). Poll done over the weekend.

Looks like more MoE bouncyness. Grauniad are trying to make a story out of a 'dull' poll by playing around with poll internals. lol.

The Sun does it everyday, more or less.

I wouldn't know, but I'll take your word for it

Not that I read it... I have some standards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

[Meeker]

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

Plaid Cymru surge!

[redcommander]

Maybe [the Tories] should get the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists to be in a coalition instead.

Uh...

I changed that, I realized they aren't in the House of Commons anymore.

That's not the only issue.  You do know that the UUP is already officially allied with the Tories, right?

Not in the House of Commons, but yeah I knew that they were already in an alliance. It seems like it would be more beneficial to the Tories in the long term to govern without the LibDems.

[minionofmidas]

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

Plaid Cymru surge!

Harry Hayfield to the rescue to post the PC battleground, complete with Ochil on a 15 pt swing, well before many Welsh constituencies!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

ICM sez: Con 33 (-2), LDem 30 (-1), Labour 28 (+2). Poll done over the weekend.

Looks like more MoE bouncyness. Grauniad are trying to make a story out of a 'dull' poll by playing around with poll internals. lol.

The Sun does it everyday, more or less.

I thought The Sun was more interested in playing around with Page 3 than with polls.

[Verily]

ComRes:

Con: 32 (-2)
LD: 31 (+2)
Lab: 28 (nc)

[Verily]

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

That should be -2 Con, +1 LD, +1 Lab, nc Others. (The numbers are right, though.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite how close all three parties are to each other in most of todays polls is pretty funny.

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

That should be -2 Con, +1 LD, +1 Lab, nc Others. (The numbers are right, though.)

Yeah, should be. Could have sworn that it was originally reported as it was posted here, though.

[The Mikado]

Quite how close all three parties are to each other in most of todays polls is pretty funny.

YouGov... Con 33 (-1), LDem 29 (-1), Labour 28 (-), Others 10 (+2)

That should be -2 Con, +1 LD, +1 Lab, nc Others. (The numbers are right, though.)

Yeah, should be. Could have sworn that it was originally reported as it was posted here, though.

I've said it before, but a 30-30-30 election would be absolutely hilarious and fairly unpredictable (something like Lab 270 Con 260 Lib 90 would be  my guess).

[Verily]

YouGov's regional breakdown for all of last week is very interesting and might reveal some surprise LD gains on election night.

The biggest LD gains were in the Northeast. LDs gain Hexham, perhaps? The LDs surged there in 2005, while the Tory vote fell, and the Labour vote is quite large. The LDs are still in third, of course, but Labour is clearly out of the running, having failed to win the seat even in 1997 (by a hair).

Hexham is one of those seats with a lengthy party pedigree, too, having voted naught but Tory since 1924.

I'd be interested in a discussion of which unlikely gains (for the LDs and for the Conservatives, and maybe also for the SNP and PC--and Labour, perhaps (ha!)) might happen. By "unlikely", I mean, "on a substantially larger swing than UNS". Think Solihull 2005 or Enfield Southgate 1997.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The biggest LD gains were in the Northeast.

Which is also the region with the smallest sample size and (a related point of course) the region that has seen the most volatile patterns since YouGov started releasing this data. Caution, in other words, caution.

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Doesn't seem likely, but then there are freak results every election. A lot of the seat is Newcastle commuterland; if the Tories can do as well with middle class Newcastle suburbanites who live outside the city proper as inside, they might be able to do it. The potential is there, anyway.

[Eraserhead]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8643348.stm

The news today is that the Tories think that the Lib Dem rise opens up to them another 20+ Labour seats that they had not previously targeted. There is a hope that the Tories can 'come through the middle' and take advantage of the current situation.

Problem is....why trumpet this publically?

Because it's just spin (?)

[2952-0-0]

Given the closeness in this election, is turnout expected to be significantly higher than in recent elections when the result was not seriously in doubt? Who will benefit most from higher turnout?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, one wonders how much of the Tories increase in percentage will come in the form of piling on votes in safe seats... in which case they might be doing a good bit worse than UNS calculators allow.

[Serenity Now]

I've heard rumours that ICM were conducting a poll in Brighton Pavilion yesterday, not sure who for or if it will be public though.. Would be interesting..

[You kip if you want to...]

I've heard rumours that ICM were conducting a poll in Brighton Pavilion yesterday, not sure who for or if it will be public though.. Would be interesting..

I assume the Greens. They've used ICM for constituency polling before...

[Verily]

I've heard rumours that ICM were conducting a poll in Brighton Pavilion yesterday, not sure who for or if it will be public though.. Would be interesting..

Indeed. I'm curious how the LD surge has affected the situation in Brighton, where the Greens are really relying on LD voters from 2005 that it used to look certain they would get. On the other hand, all of first-hand accounts I've heard suggest that the Greens have completely plastered Brighton with posters while the LDs have evacuated the area, signs of an informal pact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 33 (-), Labour 29 (+1), LDem 28 (-1)

Populus: Con 36 (+6), LDem 28 (-3), Labour 27 (-1)

[Serenity Now]

I've heard rumours that ICM were conducting a poll in Brighton Pavilion yesterday, not sure who for or if it will be public though.. Would be interesting..

Indeed. I'm curious how the LD surge has affected the situation in Brighton, where the Greens are really relying on LD voters from 2005 that it used to look certain they would get. On the other hand, all of first-hand accounts I've heard suggest that the Greens have completely plastered Brighton with posters while the LDs have evacuated the area, signs of an informal pact.

That's correct, I've seen a hell of a lot of Green posters lately (although they were slow to appear) and only 1 Lib Dem one. There are also a fair few Labour posters, in fairly affluent residential areas like Preston Park (where many active members live). I haven't seen any Tory posters as fair as I can recall, although I haven't been to many areas of the outskirts in the last few weeks except for Hollingbury where there are almost no posters for any party. I imagine there are plenty of Tory posters in older, better off suburban areas like Withdean (where Tories are less shy).

Of course the 'poster wars' don't mean a spectacular amount but are fun to think about. I guess one could find significance if there are significant changes in prevalence of posters for a certain party in a certain area: One such observation is that there are about 10 times as many green posters in the area I grew up than there were back in 2005.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 34 (+1), LDem 31 (+3), Labour 27 (-2)

Looks about the same as the one they released this time last week, oddly enough.

[Verily]

ICM/Guardian poll of the 42 closest LD target seats (mix of Conservative- and Labour-held), those where the LDs need a swing of 6% or less and were already in second. (So excluding Ealing Central and Acton, Aberconwy, Colne Valley, St Albans, and a few others.)

LD: 39 (+4)
Con: 35 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-5)

Changes are from 2005. Note that the original breakdown was odd because the group contains mostly Con-LD marginals with low Labour votes but also a number of Lab-LD marginals with low Conservative votes.

Interesting news overall, really. On those numbers, the LDs would win all of their easiest Labour targets and most of their easiest Conservative ones, but the swings are smaller than the national swing. However, the swings are much larger than the national swing in the Lab-LD marginals specifically, suggesting that there may be some huge swings in some Lab-LD seats with much larger Lab majorities than those polled.