UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

How good are British exit polls? I seem to remember them being pretty poor historically.

I know the 1992 and 1997 ones were miles off. The 2005 exit poll got it dead on though.

[Phony Moderate]

How good are British exit polls? I seem to remember them being pretty poor historically.

1992 was infamous for having inaccurate exit polls. In terms of seats, pretty much every exit poll since then has been accurate, although the percentages are still known to be slightly wrong.

[Phony Moderate]

Tweeters are going to have a field day tomorrow, that's for sure....

[You kip if you want to...]

Tweeters are going to have a field day tomorrow, that's for sure....

Tweeters will have a fit when Nick Clegg doesn't become Prime Minister on 80% of the vote.

Tonight's YouGov is trending and the Liberals are calling YouGov unreputable...

[Verily]

Tweeters are going to have a field day tomorrow, that's for sure....

Tweeters will have a fit when Nick Clegg doesn't become Prime Minister on 80% of the vote.

Someone needs to unbunch his panties.

[afleitch]

Any Exit Poll rumours released prior to the 10pm closing time on Thursday are bull. In 2005 the results were still coming in and being calculated as BBC's election night programme came on the air at 9.55. In 1992, as wrong as they were they were still coming through even as Dimbleby was about to announce them.

[Hash]

Tonight's YouGov is trending and the Liberals are calling YouGov unreputable...

OMGZ ONE POLL HAS LIBDEMS DOWN 4!!!!!11 THE LIBDEMS WILL GETS TR4OUNCED!!!111

[You kip if you want to...]

Tonight's YouGov is trending and the Liberals are calling YouGov unreputable...

OMGZ ONE POLL HAS LIBDEMS DOWN 4!!!!!11 THE LIBDEMS WILL GETS TR4OUNCED!!!111

Well they seem to think so. I still think Labour's gonna come a close third.

[Silent Hunter]

Just when you thought it was safe to make predictions...

YouGov: Con 35 (-), Labour 30 (+2), LDem 24 (-4).

I officially give up trying to understand this election.

Which would make Labour the largest party in a hung parliament on UNS...

[afleitch]

No change with ComRes

Harris

Con 36 (+4)
Lab 26 (+1)
Lib 28 (-1)

[hawkeye59]

So, the first real results come in at like 12?
(Which, of course, would be like 6 here in Illinois.)

[Silent Hunter]

So, the first real results come in at like 12?
(Which, of course, would be like 6 here in Illinois.)

Basically. You get a big rush from 1am to 3am local time; with a seat about every thirty seconds.

[afleitch]

So, the first real results come in at like 12?
(Which, of course, would be like 6 here in Illinois.)

Basically. You get a big rush from 1am to 3am local time; with a seat about every thirty seconds.

Also if you're watching the BBC results service they only declare when seats are declared. SKY and ITV usually call them based on 'X has won but the returning officer is in the loo so we won't declare for another 15 minutes' type feeds.

[afleitch]

The Harris poll is apparently their final poll.

They only polled once in 2005. And didn't do too 'badly'.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Harris poll is apparently their final poll.

They only polled once in 2005. And didn't do too 'badly'.

Was that Harris online or by phone though? :/

[Smid]

So, the first real results come in at like 12?
(Which, of course, would be like 6 here in Illinois.)

Basically. You get a big rush from 1am to 3am local time; with a seat about every thirty seconds.

Excellent! I think I'm GMT+10, so I'll be getting results throughout the day here.

[DL]

The problem with the Harris poll is that it was in field April 28 to May 3 - meaning that much of it was done last week and it would be missing any late breaking trend that that may be happening if YouGov is right and Labour is getting a bit of a last minute bump!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 35 (+2), Con 27 (+4), LDem 23 (-7), Plaid 10 (+1)

Changes are with the last one they did (mid April). Usual remarks about the difficulties of polling Wales, etc.

[hawkeye59]

So, basically when we get our presidential results here in the U.S.

[Hash]

I'm surprised by the near total lack of constituency polls, except for those in NI and that old one in Norwich South. Have there been any others?

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm surprised by the near total lack of constituency polls, except for those in NI and that old one in Norwich South. Have there been any others?

There's been a few for Brighton Pavillion, showing the Greens way ahead.

[Phony Moderate]

Neither UKPollingReport or PoliticalBetting have crashed....yet.

[You kip if you want to...]

Opinium/Express:
Con - 35 (+2)
Lab - 27 (-1)
Lib - 26 (-1)

TNS-BMRB:
Con - 33 (-1)
Lib Dem - 29 (-1)
Lab - 27 (nc)

[afleitch]

Mike Smithson may have just sent PoliticalBetting into meltdown as he's currently 'buying' a Conservative majority.

[Verily]

YouGov:

Con: 35 (nc)
LD: 28 (+4)
Lab: 28 (-2)

So yesterday was an outlier.