UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[Meeker]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

[afleitch]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

[Torie]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

What would be your wild guess as to the number of seats each of the parties gets with these numbers?

[afleitch]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

What would be your wild guess as to the number of seats each of the parties gets with these numbers?

Tories 280-290
Labour 150-160
Lib Dem 150-160

Somthing like that...and that's not using UNS.

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov  / Sunday Times poll:
Con 35 (+1)
Lib Dem 28 (nc)
Lab 27 (-2)

[You kip if you want to...]

BPIX

Con - 34 (+3)
Lib - 30 (-2)
Lab - 26 (-2)


Mori
Con - 36 (+4)
Lab - 30 (+2)
Lib - 23 (-9)

Mori HQ admit that they think that theirs is an outlier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, with the likely outlier of Mori, the changes in the polls out today are within MoE.

[Torie]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

What would be your wild guess as to the number of seats each of the parties gets with these numbers?

Tories 280-290
Labour 150-160
Lib Dem 150-160

Somthing like that...and that's not using UNS.

I guess the lib dems get screwed by being somewhat competitive in most places, while the Tories and Labour have more concentrated pockets of support, while fading away to close to irrelevancy in other places. Is there much ideological difference between Lib Dems running in right of center districts versus left of center ones? Blair once made that charge in PM  question time, that the lib dems went chameleon in their individual constituencies (centrist in Torie [Tory] leaning areas and very left of center in Labour areas) to the point that the party lacked coherence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blair was wrong. It's quite common for LibDems to run to the right in Labour areas and to the left in Tory ones

[Sbane]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

What would be your wild guess as to the number of seats each of the parties gets with these numbers?

Tories 280-290
Labour 150-160
Lib Dem 150-160

Somthing like that...and that's not using UNS.

Do you see any evidence in the polls to suggest that the libdems are getting their swing in the "right" areas in order to pick up more seats than what they get with UNS?

[afleitch]

What would a parliament look like elected with these numbers I wonder?:

Con: 32 (+5)
LD: 32 (-1)
Lab: 23 (-2)

UNS has Tories 265, Labour 211, LibDems 145, Others 29. But UNS would probably be completely worthless with those numbers.

Numbers like that would probably relegate Labour to third party status in terms of seats...just.

What would be your wild guess as to the number of seats each of the parties gets with these numbers?

Tories 280-290
Labour 150-160
Lib Dem 150-160

Somthing like that...and that's not using UNS.

Do you see any evidence in the polls to suggest that the libdems are getting their swing in the "right" areas in order to pick up more seats than what they get with UNS?

I'm only going by the figures that Torie presented me with; I don't think that will be the end result by any means. UNS was probably 'broken' anyways prior to the Lib Dem surge. A governing party slipping into 3rd probably means they will suffer a bigger decline than UNS would suggest.

[afleitch]

For the record this is the sort of result you would get based on the Labour poll drop and Lib Dem vote rise alone with the assumption that the second party in each seat benefits.

[Torie]

Other than history (I know the Liberals were strong in Cornwall back when for some reason), why is Cornwall so Liberal Dem now, other than tradition emanating from the Liberal Party days? 

[Hash]

Other than history (I know the Liberals were strong in Cornwall back when for some reason), why is Cornwall so Liberal Dem now, other than tradition emanating from the Liberal Party days? 

and my related question is why the Liberals and now LibDems are strong in neighbouring Devon.

[Torie]

Other than history (I know the Liberals were strong in Cornwall back when for some reason), why is Cornwall so Liberal Dem now, other than tradition emanating from the Liberal Party days?  

and my related question is why the Liberals and now LibDems are strong in neighbouring Devon.

Devon I think used to be a Tory stronghold; it was not an area the old Liberal party cracked (at least not after the party became a relatively small third wheel).

[Verily]

Other than history (I know the Liberals were strong in Cornwall back when for some reason), why is Cornwall so Liberal Dem now, other than tradition emanating from the Liberal Party days?  

Tradition is a lot of it...

Cornwall is more similar to rural Scotland in many ways than it is to rural England. It doesn't have a tradition of powerful local lords or large estates, and the petty farmer survived in Cornwall somewhat more than elsewhere. That in turn led to a disinclination to side with the Tories, who represented landed interests, and somewhat more left-wing tendencies.

However, Labour, with its union connections and industrial city appeal, could never hope to break into Cornwall (except the tin mining areas around Camborne and Redruth) in the long run. Therefore, the territory stayed Liberal later than other areas and was then easier for the Liberals/Alliance/Lib Dems to gain ground in once they reemerged as a serious force.

I think this translates a little bit into Devon as well, but I'm not totally sure. It is worth pointing out that the strong Tory areas of Devon are the "urban" hinterland outside Plymouth and Exeter, while the rural areas tend to be Lib Dem, which would suggest a similar pattern to Cornwall. (Plus Torbay. It's a mystery to me why Labour is so weak-to-nonexistent in Torbay.)

[Torie]

That suggests the base of the Liberal Party (at least after the Labour party came along), were yeoman farmers. Did religion play a part? Was Cornwall historically full of "dissenters" from the Anglican suzerainty? Or tribalism?  Isn't Cornwall mostly inhabited by Celtic stock, since it was a bit too far for the Anglo Saxons to conveniently subdue and displace, and assimilate? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main reason for LibDem strength in the West Country is tradition, which, in turn, is mostly the result of religion; which was, once, the main influence in voting patterns in rural areas.

[Hash]

The main reason for LibDem strength in the West Country is tradition, which, in turn, is mostly the result of religion; which was, once, the main influence in voting patterns in rural areas.

Be there any place with maps or subnational data of old religious data (Anglican vs. non-conformist)?

[Gustaf]

So, with the likely outlier of Mori, the changes in the polls out today are within MoE.

Disregarding Mori as an outlier there seems to be a clear indication of Tories gaining and Labour declining a little bit.

MIGHT be noise of course, but still bad news for Labour, imo.

[afleitch]

So, with the likely outlier of Mori, the changes in the polls out today are within MoE.

Disregarding Mori as an outlier there seems to be a clear indication of Tories gaining and Labour declining a little bit.

MIGHT be noise of course, but still bad news for Labour, imo.

What is probably key is the gap between Tory and Labour (excusing the Lib Dems for just a second)

8pts with YouGov, 9pts with ICM. Even 6pts with 'Comedy Result.' That is important when you look at the 100-150 seats etc where it's a contest between the Tories and Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, with the likely outlier of Mori, the changes in the polls out today are within MoE.

Disregarding Mori as an outlier there seems to be a clear indication of Tories gaining and Labour declining a little bit.

MIGHT be noise of course, but still bad news for Labour, imo.

Day-to-day changes don't mean a lot, usually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main reason for LibDem strength in the West Country is tradition, which, in turn, is mostly the result of religion; which was, once, the main influence in voting patterns in rural areas.

Be there any place with maps or subnational data of old religious data (Anglican vs. non-conformist)?

There are (or at least there used to be) some maps of the religious census taken in the middle of the nineteenth century up on the Vision of Britain website.

[Torie]

The main reason for LibDem strength in the West Country is tradition, which, in turn, is mostly the result of religion; which was, once, the main influence in voting patterns in rural areas.

Be there any place with maps or subnational data of old religious data (Anglican vs. non-conformist)?

There are (or at least there used to be) some maps of the religious census taken in the middle of the nineteenth century up on the Vision of Britain website.

Here is the link to the part of the website to which Al refers that contains British religious maps.

Below is a map based on the percentage of Wesleyan Methodists.

[Phony Moderate]

Mike Smithson has said that there's "rumours", of some sort, about tonight's YouGov Poll.