UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Torygraph has confirmed the figures as Con 36, Labour 29, LDem 27. I actually went onto their website to check; the things I do for you people!

[You kip if you want to...]

Yup, confirmed.

Another one:
Angus Reid/Sunday Express
35 (+2)
29 (-1)
23 (nc)

ComRes, YouGov and BPIX still to be released.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also been a poll (if you can call it that) from OnePoll. I couldn't post it here without laughter, maybe someone else could.

[You kip if you want to...]

There's also been a poll (if you can call it that) from OnePoll. I couldn't post it here without laughter, maybe someone else could.

I have no shame.
Lib Dem 32%, Con 30%, Labour 21%

Hilarious result.

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes/Indie on Sunday

38 (+2)
28 (-1)
25 (-1)

Personally, I think Cameron could scrape a majority on that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also been a poll (if you can call it that) from OnePoll. I couldn't post it here without laughter, maybe someone else could.

I have no shame.
Lib Dem 32%, Con 30%, Labour 21%

Hilarious result.

And others on 17%. Don't leave out that part.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Personally, I think Cameron could scrape a majority on that.

He certainly could, yes. Could do on the ICM figures as well. Frankly, I'm starting to suspect that it might happen after all.

[You kip if you want to...]

Also, from UKPR:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[You kip if you want to...]

There's also been a poll (if you can call it that) from OnePoll. I couldn't post it here without laughter, maybe someone else could.

I have no shame.
Lib Dem 32%, Con 30%, Labour 21%

Hilarious result.

And others on 17%. Don't leave out that part.

It's probably a "voodoo" poll and it's for The People. Their BNP readership can't be that low... it's The People.

[Phony Moderate]

There's also been a poll (if you can call it that) from OnePoll. I couldn't post it here without laughter, maybe someone else could.

I have no shame.
Lib Dem 32%, Con 30%, Labour 21%

Hilarious result.

I wonder what the figures for the "Others" are....

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh, so still a hung parliament from the ICM marginals:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/05/exclusive-marginals-poll-shows-a-slim-tory-majority.html

And of course, a majority of 4 (especially a coalition majority of 4) would be on shaky ground, should he try and get through to 2014 or 2015.

[Phony Moderate]

Oh, so still a hung parliament from the ICM marginals:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/05/exclusive-marginals-poll-shows-a-slim-tory-majority.html

And of course, a majority of 4 (especially a coalition majority of 4) would be on shaky ground, should he try and get through to 2014 or 2015.

1964....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More oddness. The BBC report that YouGov shows Con 35, LDem 28, Labour 27. But there's no mention of this on the YouGov website or that of the paper (Sunday Times) that the poll is due to be published in; this is odd as the BBC tends to be very 'conservative' when reporting anything to do with opinion polls.

In other news, UK Pollingreport has apparently crashed.

[afleitch]

Com(edy) Res(ult) gives

Con 38
Lab 28
Lib 25

I really wish that was true.

Angus Reid

Con 35
Lab 23
Lib 29

[You kip if you want to...]

More oddness. The BBC report that YouGov shows Con 35, LDem 28, Labour 27. But there's no mention of this on the YouGov website or that of the paper (Sunday Times) that the poll is due to be published in; this is odd as the BBC tends to be very 'conservative' when reporting anything to do with opinion polls.

In other news, UK Pollingreport has apparently crashed.

Political Betting is reporting it to.

[You kip if you want to...]

BPIX/The Mail on Sunday

34 (nc)
30 (nc)
27 (+1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 34 (-1), LDem 29 (+1), Labour 28 (+1)

And, surprisingly, an ICM for tehgraun: Con 33 (-3 on the ICM for the Sunday Torygraph, level for the last one done for the Grauniad), Labour 28 (-1, level), LDem 28 (+1, -2).

The fieldwork for the new ICM overlaps - though not totally - with yesterday's ICM. As a caveat; this is bank holiday weekend polling.

[afleitch]

YouGov: Con 34 (-1), LDem 29 (+1), Labour 28 (+1)

And, surprisingly, an ICM for tehgraun: Con 33 (-3 on the ICM for the Sunday Torygraph, level for the last one done for the Grauniad), Labour 28 (-1, level), LDem 28 (+1, -2).

The fieldwork for the new ICM overlaps - though not totally - with yesterday's ICM. As a caveat; this is bank holiday weekend polling.

Weekend polling in general is suspect. However the 'its tight' narrative is better; I think the media were getting a bit carried away late last week.

[Phony Moderate]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

Depends on how much ££££ the papers are shelling out. There will be a lot on Wednesday, of course.

[afleitch]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

Depends on how much ££££ the papers are shelling out. There will be a lot on Wednesday, of course.

Those on Weds will probably be the least helpful actually; a bit of massaging by the new pollsters to bring them in line with the established pollsters though the divergence between the phone and the interweb posters will remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

Depends on how much ££££ the papers are shelling out. There will be a lot on Wednesday, of course.

Those on Weds will probably be the least helpful actually; a bit of massaging by the new pollsters to bring them in line with the established pollsters though the divergence between the phone and the interweb posters will remain.

You know, the chances of them all getting it horribly wrong are probably higher than usual; the biggest fuck up before 1992 was in 1974 and they didn't exactly cover themselves with glory in 1983. Probably the only people more nervous than the Party Leaders are the polling firms

[Phony Moderate]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

Depends on how much ££££ the papers are shelling out. There will be a lot on Wednesday, of course.

Those on Weds will probably be the least helpful actually; a bit of massaging by the new pollsters to bring them in line with the established pollsters though the divergence between the phone and the interweb posters will remain.

You know, the chances of them all getting it horribly wrong are probably higher than usual; the biggest fuck up before 1992 was in 1974 and they didn't exactly cover themselves with glory in 1983. Probably the only people more nervous than the Party Leaders are the polling firms

Perhaps OnePoll will end up being the most accurate....

[afleitch]

So which day in the next 3 and a bit days can we expect the most polls to be released on?

Depends on how much ££££ the papers are shelling out. There will be a lot on Wednesday, of course.

Those on Weds will probably be the least helpful actually; a bit of massaging by the new pollsters to bring them in line with the established pollsters though the divergence between the phone and the interweb posters will remain.

You know, the chances of them all getting it horribly wrong are probably higher than usual; the biggest fuck up before 1992 was in 1974 and they didn't exactly cover themselves with glory in 1983. Probably the only people more nervous than the Party Leaders are the polling firms

True, but probably most of the polls will fall in the MOE range. All pollsters need to do is get close...and certainly not try to predict the seats share I'm not even sure the BBC/ITV exit poll will be able to do this successfully.

[DL]

Actually, the biggest screw up ever for the polling industry was not in 1974 - it was in 1970. ALL the polls in 1970 projected an easy Labour re-election with as big a margin as in 1966 - but the Tories under Heath won in a shock upset. Some say people were pissed off because the UK lost the world cup two days before the election.