UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Mike Smithson has said that there's "rumours", of some sort, about tonight's YouGov Poll.

People are tweeting "YouGov: CON 34% (-1), LDEM 30% (+2%), LAB 28% (+1)" Nothing official yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours about rumours = ...

[Phony Moderate]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

[Phony Moderate]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

Twitter.com/Bob501

[You kip if you want to...]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

Twitter.com/Bob501

Just seen it on the feed. Wonder if it'll get any RTs.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

Twitter.com/Bob501

Just seen it on the feed. Wonder if it'll get any RTs.

It's already appeared on UKPR and PB.com

[You kip if you want to...]

Tonight's YouGov:

[Hash]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

Twitter.com/Bob501

Just seen it on the feed. Wonder if it'll get any RTs.

It's already appeared on UKPR and PB.com

link?

[Хahar 🤔]

Meh, now nobody will take that seriously.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just to be kind of annoying, i might tweet that the YouGov Poll shows Labour in the lead.

You should! The reaction would be hilarious.

Twitter.com/Bob501

Just seen it on the feed. Wonder if it'll get any RTs.

It's already appeared on UKPR and PB.com

link?

It was in the comments on the site.

[You kip if you want to...]

SKy's latest poll of polls:

[Gustaf]

So, with the likely outlier of Mori, the changes in the polls out today are within MoE.

Disregarding Mori as an outlier there seems to be a clear indication of Tories gaining and Labour declining a little bit.

MIGHT be noise of course, but still bad news for Labour, imo.

Day-to-day changes don't mean a lot, usually.

Ah, I didn't realize they were all trackers. In that case, no, not too much importance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that the Mori poll seems to have been getting a suspicious amount of attention from certain sections of the media.

[bullmoose88]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/labour-danger-uniform-swing.html

Interesting read.

[redcommander]

There's still time for Cameron to seal the deal with voters who are still skeptical of voting for the Tories. It would be hard to pull of a majority, but if there is a hung parliament, it would probably be best for the UK if the Lib Dems are not part of the government. It would be more beneficial for the Tories to ask for the support of smaller parties such as the Democratic Unionists.

[Joe Republic]

Maybe [the Tories] should get the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists to be in a coalition instead.

Uh...

[redcommander]

Maybe [the Tories] should get the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists to be in a coalition instead.

Uh...

I changed that, I realized they aren't in the House of Commons anymore.

[Joe Republic]

Maybe [the Tories] should get the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists to be in a coalition instead.

Uh...

I changed that, I realized they aren't in the House of Commons anymore.

That's not the only issue.  You do know that the UUP is already officially allied with the Tories, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/labour-danger-uniform-swing.html

Interesting read.

He's quite correct that UNS is deeply flawed, but his own assumptions are questionable as well (and not a new idea). The real problem with UNS is that swings are never uniform, not that they are uniform and multi-dimensional.

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8643348.stm

The news today is that the Tories think that the Lib Dem rise opens up to them another 20+ Labour seats that they had not previously targeted. There is a hope that the Tories can 'come through the middle' and take advantage of the current situation.

Problem is....why trumpet this publically?

[Gustaf]

Maybe they want people to think that an anti-labour vote in these constituencies is best spent on the Tories? Best thing I can think of.

[bullmoose88]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/labour-danger-uniform-swing.html

Interesting read.

He's quite correct that UNS is deeply flawed, but his own assumptions are questionable as well (and not a new idea). The real problem with UNS is that swings are never uniform, not that they are uniform and multi-dimensional.

I spent a good portion of time this past week watching the 1979 election on youtube (Search for something like Election 1979-Part X, this guy has a few of those taped from BBC Parliament).  I guess I chose that one because of the big change in seats (coulda gone 1997 too), and the swings in the regions of Britain varied greatly, a swing from Tory to Lab in Scotland, only a 3-4% swing in the north (Northeast was like what % swing) up to 7% in Greater London and Southeast etc.  And in those areas the swing diverged, east London seemed to have bigger swings than the rest....yadda yadda yadda...Lobster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Problem is....why trumpet this publically?

Yes, that's a little odd. If they were actually going to do this (and is there even enough time left to do that properly, I wonder) surely the last thing they'd do is say so?

[minionofmidas]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8643348.stm

The news today is that the Tories think that the Lib Dem rise opens up to them another 20+ Labour seats that they had not previously targeted. There is a hope that the Tories can 'come through the middle' and take advantage of the current situation.

Problem is....why trumpet this publically?

Probably because it's not true.