Super Tuesday Results Thread

[JerryArkansas]

Got done voting here in Arkansas, was able to convince a relative who was for Bloomberg and convinced by the ads to go for Biden instead. 

[JerryArkansas]

Since this is the first big day in the primary, can someone give me a quick rundown on which exit poll questions offer the biggest clues as to who is doing well? I remember in 2016, a key indicator that trump was going to win was if more people say they were angry than dissatisfied.

What is the clue questions this time around?

Maybe in the south look at candidate approval numbers.  That could point in what direction people aren't going. 

MFA seems like a bad metric at this point due to the large support even in areas hostile to Sanders. 

[JerryArkansas]

Since this is the first big day in the primary, can someone give me a quick rundown on which exit poll questions offer the biggest clues as to who is doing well? I remember in 2016, a key indicator that trump was going to win was if more people say they were angry than dissatisfied.

What is the clue questions this time around?

Maybe in the south look at candidate approval numbers.  That could point in what direction people aren't going. 

MFA seems like a bad metric at this point due to the large support even in areas hostile to Sanders. 

If MFA is near partiy or underwater, that's a good sign for Biden. Might be a good sign for Sanders if the suppor is massive.

Maybe, but depending on region that might not be too much of an indication.   Biden won both those who support and oppose in South Carolina. 

[JerryArkansas]

According to the NYT, out of 10 votes counted in Virginia so far, Bloomberg is winning with 33.3%!

God damn the polls haven't even closed yet ._.

Someone either released early vote, or its a test and it accidentally got published.

[JerryArkansas]

Vermont exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/vermont?xid=ec_flip_hz_vermont_d

Sanders 57%
Biden 17%
Warren 13%
Bloomberg 9%

Damn didn't expect that.  Not bad.

[JerryArkansas]

Biden winning in Albemarle and in the city of Charlottesville. Bernie winning in Richmond city.

Richmond is also a very young City in terms of age....

49% Black, 40% White

And just like that, Biden's ahead with 42% of the vote.

[JerryArkansas]

Oklahoma exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/oklahoma

Biden 41
Sanders 25
Warren 16
Bloomberg 15

How is that not a call worthy?

[JerryArkansas]

There is an error in Dallas County before anyone comes in here saying Biden is only up 3% with half the precincts in.  That looks like early vote that they mislabeled.

[JerryArkansas]

What the NYT has in Dallas County is just the early vote, not 99% of precincts.

I was saying this earlier.  It's a huge mistake.

[JerryArkansas]

NBC isn't though

[JerryArkansas]

Tonight is chaos. Bernie prob wins California Texas and Mass. Biden wins Maine () and Minnesota. We're looking towards a a very tight and bloody primary season.

Texas and Mass are best is a tossup right now.  Its not a probably

In Texas we have no election day vote in Tarrent, Dallas, and Harris

[JerryArkansas]

Anyone notice the Texas needle slowly slipping away from Biden? Sanders has a pretty good lead there now.

They're still saying the early vote is election day vote, so I'm just ignoring the nettle at this point.  Texas reporting is a sh**tshow right now

[JerryArkansas]

Anyone notice the Texas needle slowly slipping away from Biden? Sanders has a pretty good lead there now.

They're still saying the early vote is election day vote, so I'm just ignoring the nettle at this point.  Texas reporting is a sh**tshow right now

Just wait when California starts reporting their numbers

I know.  Its so damn bad there, and it will be in California.

[JerryArkansas]

Election Day Harris County is coming in at 48% for Biden.

If true yeah it might be over.  I'll wait for Dallas though before making a comfortable call.

[JerryArkansas]

Yeah, I think Biden has Texas.  He's winning election day 46-30 over Bernie in Dallas

[JerryArkansas]

I have to say I'm pissed off more than anything. Biden didn't win this himself. Some last minute shady deals between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Beto, and the entirety of the media did.

Or, just hear me out, people don't really like Bernie.

[JerryArkansas]

Sanders is only up .63% with 32% reported in Texas on the SoS site.

How much of the Metro areas are still out?

Also take with salt, but Biden might be winning election day votes out of freaking Travis.

[JerryArkansas]

It's not over,  folks, Steve said after votes are counted in Cali, Bernie will have a 150 vote lead over Biden

Even if Bernie wins by 20 in California, he won't have a 150 vote lead.  At best out of California he can pull about a 60 to 70 vote lead, and that could be erased by other states.

[JerryArkansas]

I'm sure someone has pointed this out already, but perhaps the highlight of the night for me is Sanders winning Orange County, and by so much. So much for this county flipping back in 2020.

#OrangeCoLovesSocialism

I imagine he'll still win it, but I'd imagine things might look a bit different once all the votes are in.

He's already close to losing the 48th and 49th to biden right now, and those should both flip within the next two updates.  It looks like its going to be an inverse of what happened in 2016 all over the state. 

[JerryArkansas]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!

You're not telling the TRUTH here. Yes, from a Percentage Point of View Sanders Margin in CA was cut from 8+ to 6.8. His Raw Vote Total increased though and I suspect it will still increase until everything is counted.

Raw vote margin doesn't matter. Yes, Bernie is winning by more vote because there are more votes, but Biden has gained in Bernie in terms of percent margin (aka how they determine statewide delegates)

This isn't true at all. The Statewide Delegates are determined by the Raw Vote and not by Percentages.
According to Green Papers Sanders leads the CA Delegate Count 221/170/14/10.

You're both wrong, so stop arguing and stop trying to spin it one way or the other.