Super Tuesday Results Thread

[2016]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!

You're not telling the TRUTH here. Yes, from a Percentage Point of View Sanders Margin in CA was cut from 8+ to 6.8. His Raw Vote Total increased though and I suspect it will still increase until everything is counted.

[Bidenworth2020]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!

You're not telling the TRUTH here. Yes, from a Percentage Point of View Sanders Margin in CA was cut from 8+ to 6.8. His Raw Vote Total increased though and I suspect it will still increase until everything is counted.

Raw vote margin doesn't matter. Yes, Bernie is winning by more vote because there are more votes, but Biden has gained in Bernie in terms of percent margin (aka how they determine statewide delegates)

[2016]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!

This isn't true at all. The Statewide Delegates are determined by the Raw Vote and not by Percentages.
According to Green Papers Sanders leads the CA Delegate Count 221/170/14/10.
You're not telling the TRUTH here. Yes, from a Percentage Point of View Sanders Margin in CA was cut from 8+ to 6.8. His Raw Vote Total increased though and I suspect it will still increase until everything is counted.

Raw vote margin doesn't matter. Yes, Bernie is winning by more vote because there are more votes, but Biden has gained in Bernie in terms of percent margin (aka how they determine statewide delegates)

[JerryArkansas]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!

You're not telling the TRUTH here. Yes, from a Percentage Point of View Sanders Margin in CA was cut from 8+ to 6.8. His Raw Vote Total increased though and I suspect it will still increase until everything is counted.

Raw vote margin doesn't matter. Yes, Bernie is winning by more vote because there are more votes, but Biden has gained in Bernie in terms of percent margin (aka how they determine statewide delegates)

This isn't true at all. The Statewide Delegates are determined by the Raw Vote and not by Percentages.
According to Green Papers Sanders leads the CA Delegate Count 221/170/14/10.

You're both wrong, so stop arguing and stop trying to spin it one way or the other.

[NOVA Green]

So, do we reckon that they'll be done counting in time for the convention?

Well considering it is mandated by State law to have the election certified within the next Week and some change....

But more seriously California is not as slow as some folks imply, so for example to pick one random large County such as Santa Clara County, a bit more efficient than most which is almost done completely counting (86% of the ballots through today) were Counted by Monday 3/9.

Orange County on 3/9 almost done counting as of 3/16 was at 78% of quasi-final votes....

Los Angeles County, not only the largest County tends to count slower, and provide less frequent updates, which creates the appearance of slow vote counting, despite the fact that votes continued to get counted regardless of slower updates...

Many of the really small rural counties tend to actually count the vast majority of their votes on Election Night or the following day, but we don't really see that reflect until later on bcs they haven't uploaded status to the state data bases....

Still, get where you are coming from....

[NOVA Green]

We are now starting to see Provisional and Late Ballots kick on, as many larger Counties move towards finalizing votes...

Contra Costa County--- 3/16 Update

2016 GE:                       473k Votes (68-25 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:            182k Votes (57-43 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/16):  209k Votes (115% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(29-31-14-16 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/16/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 21.1k***

Of those ballots remaining, roughly are 20k Provisional.

Currently Biden leads by 6.6k DEM ballots, so although this does not look like a flip, the % margins will likely narrowly considerably considering that these are heavily DEM ballots outstanding....

Still let's look at the Raw Vote numbers, which includes some ancestral heavily Republican $150k+/Yr Commuter Communities on the East Bay Outer beltway (As well as many heavily Working-Class Black, Brown, and Asian American Communites in the Flats, not to mention many lower-income White Workers)....





So here we are starting to see some results from one of Bloomberg's best Counties, but additionally also starting to observe the impact of late breaking Younger Ballots, including many Minority Working-Class Voters....

There were an additional 9.5k ballots added since the last count:

+3,502 Sanders    (37% Sanders)
+3,500 Biden       (37% Biden)

Although the remaining ballots, even assuming they are heavily DEM and skew heavily Sanders will not be enough to flip the County, Contra Costa County may well go from a current 2.7% Biden lead to something closer to a 1.5% Biden lead (or closer)....

[NOVA Green]

Let's look at another Biden County within the Bay Area that is shifting a bit as later results come in...

Solano County--- 3/16 Update

2016 GE:                       168k Votes (61-39 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:              61.9k Votes (55-44 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/16):    68.7k Votes (111% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(30-35-10-14 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/16/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 650 Votes***

Contra Costa County--- 3/16 Update

2016 GE:                       473k Votes (68-25 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:            182k Votes (57-43 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/16):  209k Votes (115% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(29-31-14-16 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)





So look at the 3/9 to 3/16 dump where 2,347 DEM ballots were added and the results in one of the bigger Biden Counties places something like this with a handful of votes remaining....

Bernie: 1,094     (47%)
Biden:    707      (30%)

[2016]

Another big Vote Dump from LA County. Sanders has increased his lead in CA both, on Percentages (now 7.2 Points over Biden) and also in the Raw Vote where he now leads by nearly 400K.

[NOVA Green]

Another big Vote Dump from LA County. Sanders has increased his lead in CA both, on Percentages (now 7.2 Points over Biden) and also in the Raw Vote where he now leads by nearly 400K.

Thanks for beating me to this....

I was fully expecting to see statewide numbers jump a bit in CA Raw Votes and % considering where the ballots are out from, and where we are moving towards in the voting contest...

Although, I'm not done crunching where the outstanding votes are coming from I would expect to consider both Raw Vote and % numbers to creep up as remaining provisional ballots get counted, plus a few Sanders heavy counties that appear to still have a decent chunk of votes out there....

[NOVA Green]

Since they locked us out of the Factory because of COVID-19 related concerns, looks like I'll have at minimum a two weeks off on furlough/unemployment if not longer, which will give me more time to bombard this thread with useless "updates", considering the current state of the Democratic Primary Election....

Oh well, guess it will keep me entertained, as my Wife still needs to work as a caregiver in a sector which cannot shut down....

So back to Los Angeles County (and I'll rip off some of my 3/13/20 Update for a few items).

Los Angeles County--- 3/17 Update

2016 GE:    3.434k Votes (72-22 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  1.435k Votes (54-45 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/17):  1,437k Votes  (100% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(39-29-13-10 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/13/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 219.5k***

The *actual* number as of 3/13/20 is obviously much lower since we had 106.2k DEM ballots counted alone since after LA Counties latest upload to the State system....    although LA County is heavily Democratic, some of these ballots will be Republican ballots where there are pockets of local Republicans support....  My theory is that maximum we are looking at maybe 80k TOTAL DEM ballots outstanding.

I would imagine that this latest dump probably includes the last of the VbMs, plus possibly some provisional ballots.

Let's look at the total RAW VOTE for the DEM PRIM in LA COUNTY.

Again right click and open in new window to see a better quality chart....



So based upon the RAW VOTE numbers, it does not appear that LA County will over-perform 2016 DEM PRIM numbers, maybe somewhere in the order of 105% of the '16 baseline, but lower than in many other larger Counties within California.

Now let's look at the increase in support over the past few reporting periods...



Now, let's look at the % of total DEM PRIM Vote Share by Reporting Date...



As I posted on 3/13, LA County initially mirrored what we were seeing in other places within Cali, where effectively Sanders remained flat on % from Election Night through 3/10.

After 3/10 we start to see a slightly different story, with Sanders gaining 1.2% and Biden gaining 0.5%, and Warren picking up 0.5%.



Basically the purpose of this chart is to examine how these late waves of DEM ballots are breaking down:

3/13---  199k new DEM PRIM ballots counted (42-31-8-15) (Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren)
3/17--    106k new DEM PRIM ballots counted (46-28-7-15) (Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren)

Overall Biden performed a bit better than I thought we would with these dumps, but again according to the LA County Website, these would likely have been heavily late VbM's, and Provisionals and Conditionals is likely all that is out there, which should even be more favorable to Sanders.

As I posted on 3/13:

"Now although we don't really have any current precinct results, we do have a "baseline" precinct result data published from the LA Times on 3/6, although it appears these numbers are likely more from after the 3/4/20 County Update.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/2020-california-primaries-precincts-results/



Let's take a brief peek around LA County....

Black Voters--- although only representing about 8% of the population of this sprawling County of 10 Million, with CNN Exit Polls estimating in CA AA Voters broke down 42-20-15-10 (Biden-Bloomberg-Sanders-Warren), AA Voters most likely represent a significantly larger share of the total LA County Voting Population.

The largest City in LA County within the largest % of Brothers & Sisters is Inglewood (43% Black and 49% Latino).

The Blackest parts of Inglewood are in the NE part of the City, which range from 70-88% AA...

Generally rolling through these precincts we are seeing Biden numbers in the high 40% to low 50% range, with Bernie hitting in the 20-25% range & Bloomberg floating around somewhere in the 7-10% range.

Drift over to the heavily Latino precincts of SW Inglewood these numbers essentially flip....

Now we roll into another working-class historically Black community of Compton.... (31% Black & 66% Latino)....

We can see the overall numbers here appear to indicate that working-class Black voters consist of much larger % of the electorate than sheer demographics alone would appear to represent, especially in a CA DEM PRIM.

Although the largest Census Tract in Compton is 62% Black, and generally you only get above 50% Black in NW Compton, overall within the City you don't see Sanders start winning until you hit the NE side of the City above Compton Blvd (75% Latino), and even there it was only narrow Sanders wins....

Although obviously with overall a huge DEM AA Vote in LA County, my intention is not to showcase these cities (well known through popular music) as representative of the Black POP of LA County, there are only so many places within LA County where we can potentially connect precinct level data with election data....

Next stop... wealthy white "Beach Areas".... look at another chunk of Biden Gray.... places like Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, etc where we start to see a lot of precincts that are Biden>Bloomberg>Sanders places.

Also noteworthy that Warren did pretty well in some of these beach towns....

Santa Monica is interesting....

Warren frequently places 2nd to Sanders in other places Biden places 2nd, but overall Santa Monica is a relatively close Sanders-Warren race (3/6 LA Times numbers)...."


It will be interesting to look at greater precinct level data once it becomes available, but unless somebody can find a relatively updated precinct map, at least it gives us an idea of breakdowns...

It could be that the LA County Statement of Votes Cast if downloaded into an Excel file, might provide us with more updated numbers at least by municipality, pending the final SoVC.

Although I have download the Zip file, I haven't played around yet with crunching the numbers by jurisdiction....

My recollection is that from the '16 DEM PRIM, there were some major shifts in LA County, which is usually one of the last in the State to finally count the votes... (Especially in much more heavily younger and Latino communities)....

[NOVA Green]

Let's look at other recent updates from SoCal....

Riverside County--- 3/17 Update

2016 GE:    754k Votes (50-44 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  201k Votes (56-43 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/17):  218k Votes (108% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(34-30-13-8 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/17/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 32k***

These are overwhelmingly provisional ballots, and although there might be some PUB ballots mixed in and maybe something like 50% of Provisionals might be rejected for whatever reason, there are still a decent chunk of outstanding CA votes remaining from Riverside.



So let's take a look at the past few batches---

3/12--- 3k DEM Ballots (49-27-8-10)     Bernie-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren
3/17-   11.7k  DEM Ballots (48-33-9-6)  Bernie-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren

So with the last batch of Riverside we should assume at MIN that Sanders will get at least 50%, if not quite a bit higher (55-60%?), which will likely boost county numbers at least by a 1% additional Sanders-Biden spread....

The only map that I believe we have is the old map from the LA Times from a few days after ED....

[NOVA Green]

San Bernadino County--- 3/17 Update

2016 GE:    654k Votes (52-41 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  176k Votes (55-44 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/17):  185k Votes (105% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(39-32-12-8 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/17/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 11.5kk***

VbM---          2.0k
Conditional-   9.5k

So not looming there are tons of votes out here, but of what is left should break heavily DEM and likely fairly heavily Sanders > Biden.

From 3/13 > 3/17:

+ 1,050 DEM Ballots---

Sanders---  +640    (61%)
Biden---      +242   (23%)
Bloomberg-- +71    (7%)
Warren---     +62    (6%)
Others---       +12   (1%)

So depending upon how many ballots are DEM, and how many are valid looks like what is left out of San Bernadino will like break very heavily Sanders.

[NOVA Green]

San Diego--- 3/17 Update

2016 GE:    1.306k Votes (56-37 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  418k Votes (52-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/17):  468k Votes (112% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(35-28-13-13 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/18/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 25k***

Of those ballots remaining,  21k Provisional, and 3kk Conditional.

Let's look at the current raw vote count


Let's look at the % numbers...



Sanders has increased dramatically since 3/9 going from 33.1% to 34.5% (+1.4%)
Biden has gained since 3/9 an anemic 0.1% of vote share going from 28.1% to 28.2%, despite an additional 46k DEM PRIM Votes added to the ballots.

Now without graphs, we need to look at the most recent election results from SD County in the DEM PRIM.

3/13 Batch:    14,130 DEM PRIM Votes (46-30-13-8)----   (Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)
3/16 Batch:    17.1k  DEM PRIM Votes  (50-29-9-9)----     (Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)
3/17 Batch:     4.9k   DEM PRIM Votes  (54-25-10-7)----   (Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

Needless to say it would not be unreasonable to suspect that the last batch of Provisional ballots will break even more heavily Bernie > Biden)

Here is a precinct map from roughly mid-day 3/9 from the San Diego Tribune (Link Below), since which approx 50k+ additional DEM ballots have been counted.

I'll let someone with a larger monitor size scroll through the results, but still worthwhile to examine in greater detail...



https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-03-09/san-diego-county-primary-results-by-precinct

Anybody that wants to hit the pipe and explore precinct level data for the 2020 DEM PRIM in SD County, can always check out this source, download it into Excel and slice and dice by place...

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/SanDiego/LiveResults/en/Index_8.html

Run the numbers turn it into a Pivot Table and match results by Municipality against the SoVC official results from '08 and '16.... no time for that now, but giving some avenues for folks that want to check it out a bit further....

[/quote]

[NOVA Green]

Orange County---

Looks like this county is getting close to a wrap...

2016 GE:    1.2 Mil Votes (51-42 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  331k Votes (52-47 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/18):  383k Votes (+116% increase from '16)

(37-28-14-11 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/18/20 5:00 PM PDT- Uncounted Ballots- TOT EST 704***

As I posted back on 3/13, we are getting close to a wrap, although there were still an additional there were still an additional 12,821 DEM ballots counted since.

These would have been predominately provisional ballots which broke down:

(52-22-10-8-7)---   Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-OTHERS

Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....

Let's look at the Raw Vote numbers by day:



So what we see here is a gradual climb in TOTAL votes, with a massive 50k vote gain between 3/9 and 3/11 from 300k to 350k and a slower trickle off with less than 30k votes counted over the past week.

Orange County is one of the more efficient large Metro counties when it comes to counting votes rapidly (despite all of the grumbling on Atlas about how long it takes California to count their ballots).

Let's look at the % by Candidate by day....



So if we look at Election Night through the 3/7 report, we see a huge Biden surge, which clearly reflects the growth of his support among undecided voters waiting to cast their ballots until the last minute.

It wasn't until 3/11 when Sanders started to have a higher net vote share than Biden, gaining +0.9% vs Biden's +0.7% from the 3/9 update.

From 3/11 to 3/18 Sanders gained +0.7%, while Biden stayed stagnant at 27.9% total (+0%).

Haven't found an updated precinct map yet, but here's a link to the OC County Reporting site that breaks it down by precinct which can be downloaded into Excel via a CSV or XML file format....

Haven't taken a drive yet, but probably wouldn't be too difficult to pivot table... doesn't look like they sort out precincts by municipality, so that might involve some hard coding.

Anyways.... gives something to look at while currently I am out of work until they reopen the Plant...

https://www.ocvote.com/vc/web/results/current-election-results

[NOVA Green]

While I am still idled and strolling around CA election results from SoCal....

Ventura County--- 3/18 Update

2016 GE:    356k Votes (55-37 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  118k Votes (51-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/18):  122.6k Votes (104% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(34-31-12-12 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/18/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 13.4k***

Counting like snails in the outside areas of Western Metro LA....

At this point other than Los Angeles and San Diego County, small Ventura has the next greatest number of ballots outstanding...

Of those ballots remaining, 10.8k Provisional, 2.1k Conditional and 570 "Other".

As I posted after the last County Update:

"This was a county on my potential Biden flip list, considering the relatively close margins on Election Day and since, but considering how provisional ballots tend to break, it appears that Sanders will likely gain some extra raw margins, as well as an uptick in % margins, once all of the votes are counted."



There were 4,741 DEM PRIM Ballots added since the last update (Which were all provisionals & conditionals) out of roughly 6k TOTAL Ballots:

Sanders:      + 2,325
Biden:          + 1,503
Bloomberg:   +383
Warren:        + 397
Others:         + 133

(49-32-8-8-3)      Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-Others

I would anticipate the remaining valid ballots to be heavily DEM and at min +20% Sanders over Biden.

Now let's look at the % support for DEM Candidate over reporting periods...



If we look at the trendlines, we see a similar pattern as elsewhere with Sanders only gaining +1.4% from ED reporting and Biden gaining +3.1% (In what I had suspected would be Biden's best County in SoCal).

The latest vote dump shows Sanders gaining +0.6% (to 33.5%) and Biden staying flat at 31.2%.

Assuming Provisionals continue the trend we have seen elsewhere, it appears that at minimum we will something like an additional +0.5% spread beyond the current 2.3% Sanders > Biden lead in Ventura.

Unfortunately, we don't have a precinct map of Ventura, but anyone curious can at least take a peek from an LA Times precinct map, which essentially will only include Election Day +1 precincts within Ventura.

Simi Valley appears heavily Sanders Country, Thousand Oaks Biden/Bloomberg Country, Oxnard heavily Sanders.

Again correlation between the "Latino Belt" of Ventura and Sanders support appears strong...

https://www.latimes.com/projects/2020-california-primaries-precincts-results/

[Bidenworth2020]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

[n1240]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

They just haven't updated any results since election day, probably won't add anything until certification and will end up close to exceed 2016 numbers most likely

[NOVA Green]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

Unfortunately although I do not have any immediate answers, it does appear that not only do they have a new "Boss" who oversees the Election Department, in what is after all a pretty small and rural County in California (Even by California standards).

My understanding is that currently the entire County Gvt offices are shut down as a result of the Coronavirus, so we might not see official results until State Mandated certification deadlines.

Although it is true that I have seen some extremely unusual activity in a handful of extremely small and very rural parts of Northern California, where many Registered Democrats/NPP voters likely wrote in DJT (Lassen County jumps out for example), I would be extremely surprised to see this being the case in Lake County.

Although I confess, it's been quite some time since I visited Lake County, the Northern Part of the County is more like "Emerald Triangle" or Southern Mendocino, and the Southern Part of the County a bit more like Napa County.

Lovely "Redneck-Hippy hybrid" on the Eastern slopes of the Mountain Range that goes all the way down the North Coast Country.     

As I have experienced before, frequently County level Gvt officials in tiny rurals, will provide information if emailed directly (Which sometimes includes precinct level data where some counties charge a fee for the service).

I sent an email out a few minutes ago inquiring about election updates to the Election Office and will update accordingly in the event that I receive reports not currently posted on the official reporting websites.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

Unfortunately although I do not have any immediate answers, it does appear that not only do they have a new "Boss" who oversees the Election Department, in what is after all a pretty small and rural County in California (Even by California standards).

My understanding is that currently the entire County Gvt offices are shut down as a result of the Coronavirus, so we might not see official results until State Mandated certification deadlines.

Although it is true that I have seen some extremely unusual activity in a handful of extremely small and very rural parts of Northern California, where many Registered Democrats/NPP voters likely wrote in DJT (Lassen County jumps out for example), I would be extremely surprised to see this being the case in Lake County.

Although I confess, it's been quite some time since I visited Lake County, the Northern Part of the County is more like "Emerald Triangle" or Southern Mendocino, and the Southern Part of the County a bit more like Napa County.

Lovely "Redneck-Hippy hybrid" on the Eastern slopes of the Mountain Range that goes all the way down the North Coast Country.     

As I have experienced before, frequently County level Gvt officials in tiny rurals, will provide information if emailed directly (Which sometimes includes precinct level data where some counties charge a fee for the service).

I sent an email out a few minutes ago inquiring about election updates to the Election Office and will update accordingly in the event that I receive reports not currently posted on the official reporting websites.

Thanks!. It is interesting in that it is very close in proximity to the progressive bastion of Medocino (I think Warren and Biden are roughly even here, Bernie far ahead), yet seems to be a lot less progressive in its tendencies, both in the primary and in the general. It doesn't seem like an area where Biden would do very well, yet he is outperforming his statewide average here. Maybe an area with some anti-Hillary democrats that artificially inflated Bernie's topline in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

Unfortunately although I do not have any immediate answers, it does appear that not only do they have a new "Boss" who oversees the Election Department, in what is after all a pretty small and rural County in California (Even by California standards).

My understanding is that currently the entire County Gvt offices are shut down as a result of the Coronavirus, so we might not see official results until State Mandated certification deadlines.

Although it is true that I have seen some extremely unusual activity in a handful of extremely small and very rural parts of Northern California, where many Registered Democrats/NPP voters likely wrote in DJT (Lassen County jumps out for example), I would be extremely surprised to see this being the case in Lake County.

Although I confess, it's been quite some time since I visited Lake County, the Northern Part of the County is more like "Emerald Triangle" or Southern Mendocino, and the Southern Part of the County a bit more like Napa County.

Lovely "Redneck-Hippy hybrid" on the Eastern slopes of the Mountain Range that goes all the way down the North Coast Country.     

As I have experienced before, frequently County level Gvt officials in tiny rurals, will provide information if emailed directly (Which sometimes includes precinct level data where some counties charge a fee for the service).

I sent an email out a few minutes ago inquiring about election updates to the Election Office and will update accordingly in the event that I receive reports not currently posted on the official reporting websites.

Thanks!. It is interesting in that it is very close in proximity to the progressive bastion of Medocino (I think Warren and Biden are roughly even here, Bernie far ahead), yet seems to be a lot less progressive in its tendencies, both in the primary and in the general. It doesn't seem like an area where Biden would do very well, yet he is outperforming his statewide average here. Maybe an area with some anti-Hillary democrats that artificially inflated Bernie's topline in 2016?

Over 37% of the Population are 55+ and 20% of the POP are under the age of 17....



https://statisticalatlas.com/county/California/Lake-County/Age-and-Sex

Although I suspect these numbers will shift dramatically once the final results come in from Lake County, these are Demographics where Sanders has struggled from IA to NH, and even small rural NorCal....

Meanwhile, personal stories from way back in the Mid '90s, once you start hitting the split range of the Coast Range in the North Coast, you start moving into a different scene.

I was in a campground in Lake County circa '95 with a bunch of other College Students and was awoken in the early hours of the Morning with Semi-Automatic Rifle fire, in a camp site where bullet holes riddled the outhouse.

On our drive towards the campsite, we had already passed "rednecks" in pickup trucks with KC lights waiting to "spotlight deer" on the opening day of hunting season.

Back in the Early/Mid '90s Redwood Summer was still going strong, while the Timber Mills are getting shut down, not because of Environmental Activism, but because of over-logging in Prive Timber Plantations in Mendocino County.

One of the biggest songs playing for Months on the largest local Country Music Station was actually sung by Environmental Activists: "Potter Valley Mill"

Can't find the song right now on YouTube, but if you to 4:51 on the video from a concert in Southern Oregon, you will hear the song.

Places like Southern Mendocino were just starting to see the expansion of the vineyards rolling up from Sonoma, Timber Mills getting shuttered.

Last time I rolled through Mendocino in the early 2010s, the places where the proud union mills once stood had turned into discount shopping centers...

https://ecology.iww.org/texts/SteveOngerth/RedwoodUprising/13

Potter Valley Mill words by Darryl Cherney & Judi Bari
music by Darryl Cherney

Now the (C) mill in Potter Valley
It's (F) been here 50 (C) years
Milling all those fir trees
That used to grow 'round (G) here
But now they're (C) running out of timber
And the (F) mill is shutting (C) down
They're (F) packing up their (C) band saws
And they're (C) moving (G) out of (C) town

And they're (F) closing down the mill in (C) Potter Valley
(F) Leaving all us good folks in a (G) bind
They're (F) closing down the mill in Potter (C) Val--(F) ley
And I (C) can't be-(F) lieve the (C) mess we'll (G) leave be-(C) hind

Now Ray says there's timber back there
They'll haul it right past town
Sam says they'll only reopen if another mill burns down
The company says it's environmentalists crimpin' up their style
But as I look out on the Mendocino Forest--can't see a tree for miles

Chorus

Now when they doubled our shift five years ago
I knew we soon would see this day
And now our property values are dropping
I can't sell and can't pay
That machinery ought to stay right here
To move it would be a crime
We've kept it fixed and running for 50 years
We ought to fix it one last time

Copyright 1989 by Darryl Cherney and Judi Bari, PO Box 34, Garberville, CA 95542. All rights reserved. dc@asis.com

[NOVA Green]

Official CA SoS numbers indicate that there are 458.8k ballots yet to be counted.

Reality is that TOTAL outstanding CA ballots are way smaller and likely much less than 300k TOTAL ballots.....

SF County numbers are bunk, and unless folks are still tripping on "4 Way Window Pain", which ended up shifting from the Bay Area to Vancouver, Canada, is def not believable .

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=4%20Way%20Window%20Pane

CA is almost done counting outside of a handful of Counties, which other than Contra Costa & Placer will likely continue to increase the Sanders Margins within CA in terms of RAW VOTES....

Looking at the % margins Sanders is currently up 35.4% > 28.0% Biden.

Percentage margins will continue to grow as the last of the Provisional Ballots roll in...

Biden is not particularly popular on the West Coast, regardless of the results from the '20 WA DEM PRIM....

He is more like a "reluctant DEM" where we put the cloth-pins upon our noses, but will support him for the $15.Hr Min Wage and some of the other cooptation of Sanders '16 positions, as part of an existential battle to defeat DJT, while most likely we will still be getting screwed over from the same "DEM Bosses" just like the same "PUB Bosses" as part of the Global Race to the Bottom....

[NOVA Green]

ALAMEDA County--- 3/18 Update

Alemeda County appears to have completed all vote counting with no outstanding uncounted ballots

2016 GE:    659.5k Votes (78-15 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  320.4k Votes (51-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/18):  370.1k Votes (116% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders-   37.4%
Biden-       24.9%
Warren-     19.6%
Bloomberg- 10.4%
Others-        7.8%

Let's look at the RAW VOTE #s by Candidate from Election Day to Present:


Initially the trajectory of the TOTAL vote count was fairly rapid, accelerating from 125.5k on Election Night, to 209.9k by 3/7, and then hitting a hefty 317.7k by 3/9.

Results slowly trickled in on 3/10 and 3/12 and then spiking with a 44k Provisional ballots counted and complete by 3/18.

Let's look at the percentage support by Candidate as results came in.


So if we look at the trend-lines here, we see Biden running relatively flat from election day through final counting gaining only +0.5%, with Sanders gaining +2.6% from Election Night results.

Warren initially gained significantly more than Biden from Election Night Results through 3/9 gaining +1.9% before dropping -0.7% from her 3/9 peak as absentee ballots were counted.

Bloomberg peaked at 12.2% on Election Night, and collapsed -1.8% by the final tally.

If we look at the 43,873 Ballots counted after 3/12 and through the final 3/18 Count (Mostly Provisional Ballots).

Sanders- +22,201 (50.6%)
Biden-     +11,466 (26.1%)
Warren-   + 6,610  (15.1%)
Bloomberg- +2,723 (6.2%)
Others-       + 873  (2.0%)

Unfortunately, I have not yet been able to locate any precinct level data, but considering that Sanders narrowly won Oakland in '16, I would imagine that he comfortably won Oakland in 2020. Berkeley should also be comfortable Sanders country, although I would imagine that Warren did quite well there, as she did in other "Town & Gown" communities.

I'm not so sure on Fremont which is pretty heavily Asian-American, Upper Middle-Class, and a high % of individuals with College degrees. I suspect we might see similar patterns as some communities with comparable demographics within Santa Clara County.

Hayward--- I would imagine should have a Sanders lean,

Livermore, Pleasanton would probably skew a bit more Biden one would imagine....

[NOVA Green]

Time to take a brief break from some of the large Metro Areas, and hit some smaller communities...

Imperial County--- 3/19 Update

2016 GE:    48.1k Votes (68-26 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  15.1k Votes (65-34 HRC >Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/19):  12.6k Votes (83% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders-   42.7%
Biden-       29.2%
Warren-     5.4%
Bloomberg- 12.0%
Others-        10.7%

After the last vote dump, there are only 1,634 Votes remaining to be counted, the vast majority of which are provisional ballots, meaning that if even all of these happened to be valid DEM ballots, Imperial County would still be significantly below the 2016 DEM PRIM numbers.

Imperial County has a much larger population than it's voting numbers would suggest (~175k POP), although 50k of the population is under the age of 18.

It is a heavily Agricultural based County, where an estimated 30k are non-citizens, many likely working under guest-worker based programs.

Overall over 80% of the total population are Latino, as are likely much of the DEM electorate.

This was HRC's best County in CA in 2016, and now in 2020 it is one of the few places in California where Sanders actually improved (in this case significantly) on his 2016 % of Total DEM PRIM Votes.



Considering that Sanders was roughly 2:1 over Biden in the last batch of votes counted, I would not be surprised to see these percentages grow significantly higher as the last 1.6k ballots are counted.

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- so for anybody curious here is a map that I made which shows what I believe to be all counties that are either fully counted, or those with <100 TOTAL ballots remaining to be counted as of 03_20,

DARK GRAY=Counties with 0 ballots remaining to be counted
LIGHT GRAY= Counties with either less than 100 listed on State or County websites, have submitted their "final results", or in the case of San Francisco are clearly done counting, but just haven't bothered to upload their ballots remaining reports to the State of California.

That being said, we are also starting to get into the zone, where some huge Counties such as Orange & Santa Clara appear to virtually complete with maybe only a few hundred DEM votes yet to trickle through the system.

Some of the rurals not colored are likely close to completion, but we don't have clear visibility on what is outstanding.

Looks like we still have a chunk of ballots floating around in Humboldt, Mendocino, & Sonoma, which should all be relatively Sanders friendly.

Some votes still out in the Sacramento & Placer Counties (Both of which were more Biden friendly than Statewide), so we will see how it progresses there.

Got some spare change out in college places like Yolo, Santa Cruz, & Butte Counties, which should skew heavily Sanders with Warren getting a decent cut.

Bay Area is mostly done with about 10k Provisionals out in Contra Costa (Narrow Biden County), about 6k in Marin (Biden Country), San Mateo (Narrow Sanders), so overall would imagine the Provisional Breakdown won't be as heavily Sanders % wise as we have seen elsewhere...

Probably another 120k DEM ballots out of SoCal, with Los Angeles being the bulk, most of the rest San Diego,Riverside, with a smattering from Ventura and San Bernadino.

Looks like there is still some change out on the Central Coast, but there's a bit of a gap with the Monterey County numbers and haven't crunched the math since the latest SLO and Santa Barbara County updates.

Another 10k Conditional votes left out in Kern County, as well as a small number in a few other counties in the Central Valley.

 

[NOVA Green]

Nova-- Any insight on what is happening in Lake County? Atlas is only reporting about a third of the ballots cast in 2016 for the democratic primary right now, 3.3k to 9k. The county is trending R, but not THAT fast. It is also an interesting county in that it voted Bernie 55-42 in 2016 but now Bernie barely leads Biden with Bloomberg above viability. Any information you, or anyone else can offer, would be greatly appreciated.

Unfortunately although I do not have any immediate answers, it does appear that not only do they have a new "Boss" who oversees the Election Department, in what is after all a pretty small and rural County in California (Even by California standards).

My understanding is that currently the entire County Gvt offices are shut down as a result of the Coronavirus, so we might not see official results until State Mandated certification deadlines.

Although it is true that I have seen some extremely unusual activity in a handful of extremely small and very rural parts of Northern California, where many Registered Democrats/NPP voters likely wrote in DJT (Lassen County jumps out for example), I would be extremely surprised to see this being the case in Lake County.

Although I confess, it's been quite some time since I visited Lake County, the Northern Part of the County is more like "Emerald Triangle" or Southern Mendocino, and the Southern Part of the County a bit more like Napa County.

Lovely "Redneck-Hippy hybrid" on the Eastern slopes of the Mountain Range that goes all the way down the North Coast Country.     

As I have experienced before, frequently County level Gvt officials in tiny rurals, will provide information if emailed directly (Which sometimes includes precinct level data where some counties charge a fee for the service).

I sent an email out a few minutes ago inquiring about election updates to the Election Office and will update accordingly in the event that I receive reports not currently posted on the official reporting websites.

Thanks!. It is interesting in that it is very close in proximity to the progressive bastion of Medocino (I think Warren and Biden are roughly even here, Bernie far ahead), yet seems to be a lot less progressive in its tendencies, both in the primary and in the general. It doesn't seem like an area where Biden would do very well, yet he is outperforming his statewide average here. Maybe an area with some anti-Hillary democrats that artificially inflated Bernie's topline in 2016?

*** LAKE COUNTY UPDATE- 3/20 ***

The Deputy Registrar of Voters got back to me and said they will be releasing updated final results on 3/31 or 4/1.

Stay tuned....