Super Tuesday Results Thread

[NOVA Green]

San Francisco gave an idea of how strong provisionals are going to Sanders. Biden was trimming the margin up until Friday (percentage, not raw margin), then the margin started going up again this week as they counted provisionals, with Sanders winning some batches by upwards of around 30 points.

Not sure if you ever checked out the '16 DEM PRIM link which I posted somewhere up-thread, but interestingly enough the Provisional ballots in the heavily Latino Counties of the Central Valley, as well as Latino and Youth precincts in LA, were not only some of the last to report, but also tended to dump most heavily Sanders.

I would again caution against following the CA Election Office "Estimated Unprocessed Ballot Report" as some sort of "official result", since as I discovered in '16 doing daily updated reports this is a *lagging indicator*, whereas the local County election numbers tend to be *leading indicators*

The total number of unprocessed total CA ballots is likely much lower than the CA "official numbers", hence my learning curve in terms of trying to at least identify any potential discrepancies between the two data sets (Alameda County '16 NOVA Green schooling)....

[NOVA Green]

Santa Clara County

2016 GE:    708k Votes (73-21 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  278k Votes (57-42 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/12):  315k Votes (+113% increase from '16)

(33-27-14-15 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/11/20- Uncounted Ballots- TOT EST 30.5k***

https://www.cocovote.us/election-results-march-3-2020/

"Below are the estimated number of ballots that remain to be counted as of March 11.

500          Other
29,200     Provisional
800          Conditional Voter Registration
30,500     Total Estimate"


Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....






So in Contra Costa County it appears that initially we saw a "Biden Surge", but that once we started to see later VbM's arrive numbers started to shift a bit with the latest vote dump.

The reality is that now that it appears we are Provisional voting ballot material, with Biden only holding a +5k lead, I would not be surprised to see Contra Costa County becoming something closer to a 50-50 race between Biden & Bernie within a Binary contest....

I would certainly expect to possibly see a slight Warren "bump" % wise, and Bloomberg to quite possibly drop beneath 15% within the County.

[/quote]

[NOVA Green]

Orange County

Looks like this county is getting close to a wrap...

2016 GE:    1.2 Mil Votes (51-42 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  331k Votes (52-47 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/12):  371k Votes (+112% increase from '16)

(36-28-14-11 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/12/20- Uncounted Ballots- TOT EST 20,048***

Looks like this is virtually a wrap unless OC posted numbers on the State Site before their official numbers.... would not be expecting much in the way of ballots coming 'otta OC anymore....


Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....






Here is a County where we can clearly see the Biden surge....  (Perhaps part of some of those reports about many DEMs holding off on late voting until after ST).

Again precinct level results should be extremely interesting, especially a compare and contrast vs '16....




 

[/quote]

[Holmes]

Don't be an idiot. He's taking his time to breakdown the vote as it comes in and you're being an asshole. And it's pretty well established that he supports Sanders. Stop acting a fool.

[2016]

What NOVA GREEN does is totally useless IMO. Everyone knows Sanders won CA. That's it - Period. Most Biden Supporters here on Atlas expected a big Biden Surge in CA with the late Mail Ballots. It didn't happen.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

NOVA, can you crop off all the empty white space from the chart images?

[Holmes]

What NOVA GREEN does is totally useless IMO. Everyone knows Sanders won CA. That's it - Period. Most Biden Supporters here on Atlas expected a big Biden Surge in CA with the late Mail Ballots. It didn't happen.

I'm sorry you're upset about people discussing election results on an election website I guess.

[n1240]

San Francisco gave an idea of how strong provisionals are going to Sanders. Biden was trimming the margin up until Friday (percentage, not raw margin), then the margin started going up again this week as they counted provisionals, with Sanders winning some batches by upwards of around 30 points.

Not sure if you ever checked out the '16 DEM PRIM link which I posted somewhere up-thread, but interestingly enough the Provisional ballots in the heavily Latino Counties of the Central Valley, as well as Latino and Youth precincts in LA, were not only some of the last to report, but also tended to dump most heavily Sanders.

I would again caution against following the CA Election Office "Estimated Unprocessed Ballot Report" as some sort of "official result", since as I discovered in '16 doing daily updated reports this is a *lagging indicator*, whereas the local County election numbers tend to be *leading indicators*

The total number of unprocessed total CA ballots is likely much lower than the CA "official numbers", hence my learning curve in terms of trying to at least identify any potential discrepancies between the two data sets (Alameda County '16 NOVA Green schooling)....

Yeah I recall the 2016 vote breaking hard for Sanders and I think he may have even won the last 1 million or so votes counted statewide.

I do understand there are some counties lagging behind on the unprocessed ballot report, my personal count is 1.2 million, mostly a result of SF having not updated in a week.

[catographer]

According to unofficial results from North Carolina's Board of Elections, Sanders has flipped Jackson county near Asheville by 1 vote in updated tallies.

[NOVA Green]

Los Angeles County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    3.434k Votes (72-22 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  1.435k Votes (54-45 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  1,331k Votes (93% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(38-29-13-11 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/10/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 493k***

The *actual* number as of 3/13/20 is obviously much lower since we had 200k DEM ballots counted alone since after the counties latest upload to the State system....    although LA County is heavily Democratic, some of these ballots will be Republican ballots where there are pockets of local Republicans support....  My theory is that maximum we are looking at maybe 270k TOTAL ballots outstanding.

Someone might be able to pull up LA County info on this from elsewhere, but there is still clearly a significant number DEM ballots to be counted, although we don't really have an idea of the breakdown by VbM, Provisional, Conditional, and "other" ballots.

That being said, time to pull up a chart and look at what was a pretty decent vote dump now that LA is slowing down their reporting pace...

Again right click and open in new window to see a better quality chart....



Let's look at the % of total DEM PRIM Vote Share by Reporting Date...



So here one of the most remarkable things is the consistency thus far of the reporting results if we look at the trend-lines

Sanders starts at 37.8% on Election Day, bumps up a bit on 3/4 as the early VbMs come in, drops down slightly on 3/5 as Bloomberg,Warren, & Others tick up slightly, picks up a bit more on 3/6 as Others lose market share (possibly post NV or SC?). The 3/10 batch drops down a bit, quite possibly late VbMs (post SC) starting to trickle in and Biden ticks up, Warren ticks up, and others drop....

The large 3/13 vote dump was the first update where Sanders gained market share over Biden.

The 3/13 vote dump, also shows some of invert relationship between the Biden-Bloomberg campaigns... Biden gains 0.5% and Bloomberg loses 0.5%....

It is possible that we are seeing some same late day absentees where CA voters watching Bloomberg's collapse in EST States changed their minds and decided to switch to Biden.

The 3/13 update is also interesting in that Warren's numbers in LA County hit the highest level to date....

Now although we don't really have any current precinct results, we do have a "baseline" precinct result data published from the LA Times on 3/6, although it appears these numbers are likely more from after the 3/4/20 County Update (Meaning it's only about 65% of current numbers).

https://www.latimes.com/projects/2020-california-primaries-precincts-results/



Let's take a brief peek around LA County....

Black Voters--- although only representing about 8% of the population of this sprawling County of 10 Million, with CNN Exit Polls estimating in CA AA Voters broke down 42-20-15-10 (Biden-Bloomberg-Sanders-Warren), AA Voters most likely represent a significantly larger share of the total LA County Voting Population.

The largest City in LA County within the largest % of Brothers & Sisters is Inglewood (43% Black and 49% Latino).

The Blackest parts of Inglewood are in the NE part of the City, which range from 70-88% AA...

Generally rolling through these precincts we are seeing Biden numbers in the high 40% to low 50% range, with Bernie hitting in the 20-25% range & Bloomberg floating around somewhere in the 7-10% range.

Drift over to the heavily Latino precincts of SW Inglewood these numbers essentially flip....

Now we roll into another working-class historically Black community of Compton.... (31% Black & 66% Latino)....

We can see the overall numbers here appear to indicate that working-class Black voters consist of much larger % of the electorate than sheer demographics alone would appear to represent, especially in a CA DEM PRIM.

Although the largest Census Tract in Compton is 62% Black, and generally you only get above 50% Black in NW Compton, overall within the City you don't see Sanders start winning until you hit the NE side of the City above Compton Blvd (75% Latino), and even there it was only narrow Sanders wins....

Although obviously with overall a huge DEM AA Vote in LA County, my intention is not to showcase these cities (well known through popular music) as representative of the Black POP of LA County, there are only so many places within LA County where we can potentially connect precinct level data with election data....

Next stop... wealthy white "Beach Areas".... look at another chunk of Biden Gray.... places like Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, etc where we start to see a lot of precincts that are Biden>Bloomberg>Sanders places.

Also noteworthy that Warren did pretty well in some of these beach towns....

Santa Monica is interesting....

Warren frequently places 2nd to Sanders in other places Biden places 2nd, but overall Santa Monica is a relatively close Sanders-Warren race (3/6 LA Times numbers)....

Could go on a bit more, but just some initial musings and fuel for thought since I know there are many skilled Atlas posters more qualified to look at the data and start slicing and dicing election results....   

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Shasta County has flipped to Biden. CA-07 has as well per CA's SoS site.

[NOVA Green]

Shasta County has flipped to Biden. CA-07 has as well per CA's SoS site.

Calaveras County flipped as well.... 

Went from a Sanders 2 Vote lead on 3/6 to a 12 vote Biden lead with the 3/13 update....

Don't have a handle yet on how many votes are still out there, but still looking like it is coming down to the wire here with maybe a handful of provisional ballots to decide the lead???

[NOVA Green]

Currently looking like most CA Counties are moving into Provisional Ballot mode, with a relatively small number of counties still counting VbM's...

Many huge dumps on 3/13 from both larger Metro Counties, as well as Rural Counties, where typically local election offices try to get the numbers aligned to meet CA reporting requirements...

Although the CA SoS lists the math as some 1.9 Million ballots in total outstanding, as of the current reports, these are not accurate numbers, because of how the counties report numbers to the State of California....

1.) There are not 112k uncounted ballots in SF County (at most there might be 10k ballot remaining....)

2.) There are not 493k outstanding ballot in LA County (maybe 250k max)

3.) Humboldt, Kern, San Diego County numbers to not match actual results posted at the
county level....

4.) Numbers are rolling down and the 3/13 numbers are taking us into Provisional Zone....

[n1240]

Currently looking like most CA Counties are moving into Provisional Ballot mode, with a relatively small number of counties still counting VbM's...

Many huge dumps on 3/13 from both larger Metro Counties, as well as Rural Counties, where typically local election offices try to get the numbers aligned to meet CA reporting requirements...

Although the CA SoS lists the math as some 1.9 Million ballots in total outstanding, as of the current reports, these are not accurate numbers, because of how the counties report numbers to the State of California....

1.) There are not 112k uncounted ballots in SF County (at most there might be 10k ballot remaining....)

2.) There are not 493k outstanding ballot in LA County (maybe 250k max)

3.) Humboldt, Kern, San Diego County numbers to not match actual results posted at the
county level....

4.) Numbers are rolling down and the 3/13 numbers are taking us into Provisional Zone....

My current estimate having tracked the ballot reporting numbers on the SOS website are that there are about 661k ballots left with 284k VBM and 377k provisional.

SF claims virtually no ballots left and LA claims 219k ballots left.

[NOVA Green]

Riverside County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    754k Votes (50-44 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  201k Votes (56-43 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  207k Votes (103% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(34-30-14-8 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/10/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 56k***

DEM ballots alone since 3/10 were 3k votes, and quite frankly suspect that the Riverside Co numbers are closer to the gap between 3/6 & 3/10.

Maybe I am off mark, but looking like actual ballots are much lower than the uncounted ballot numbers posted on 3/10.





Really looking like Provisional ballots are starting to kick in, or if not the late ballot are starting to heavily favor Sanders, where he is gaining against Biden in terms of % with a relatively small vote dump.

[NOVA Green]

San Bernadino County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    654k Votes (52-41 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  176k Votes (55-44 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  184k Votes (104% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(39-32-12-7 Sanders-Biden-Bloomberg-Warren-)

*** 3/13/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 14k***

VbM---          2.5k
Conditional-  11.5k







So not looming there are tons of votes out here, but of what is left should break heavily DEM and likely fairly heavily Sanders > Biden.

Still can't imagine that it would shift the results much more than a few decimal points...

[MillennialModerate]

I know there were a number of “if you told someone Biden would ...” scenarios

But I’m not sure there is one more extreme then if I told you BiDEN would only lose California by 5-7 points.... he was looking at not being viable. Losing by 20 points. To lose by mid single digits is crazy impressive in a state like California

[NOVA Green]

San Diego--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    1.306k Votes (56-37 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  418k Votes (52-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  446k Votes (107% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(34-28-13-13 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/12/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 70k***

Of those ballots remaining, 1k were VbM, 60k Provisional, and 8.5k Conditional.

Considering that another 14k DEM ballots were counted on 3/13, we are clearly moving into Provisional ballot counting zone in San Diego County.






So as we can see, San Diego exhibits similar patterns as some other places with both Sanders & Biden increasing their vote shares as ballot counting progressed, with Warren peaking and stabilizing at about 13.4% on 3/9.

Since Election Day, Sanders has gained 3.1% and Biden 3.2%.

However, the last batch counted of some 14k votes was roughly 50% Sanders and 30% Biden.

I would anticipate the remaining ballots to continue breaking heavily Sanders, with Sanders current 5.5% spread over Biden to continue to expand.

This pattern will likely replicate itself in other places in Southern California that are further behind in their provisional / late ballot counting.

Here is a precinct map from roughly mid-day 3/9 from the San Diego Tribune (Link Below), since which approx 50k+ additional DEM ballots have been counted.

I'll let someone with a larger monitor size scroll through the results, but still worthwhile to examine in greater detail...




https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-03-09/san-diego-county-primary-results-by-precinct

[NOVA Green]

Ventura County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    356k Votes (55-37 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  118k Votes (51-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  118k Votes (100% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(33-31-12-12 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/13/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 19.4k***

Of those ballots remaining, 13k Provisional, and 5.1k Conditional.

Ventura only updates once a Week, so there is a good chance we will have close to final results by 3/20.

This was a county on my potential Biden flip list, considering the relatively close margins on Election Day and since, but considering how provisional ballots tend to break, it appears that Sanders will likely gain some extra raw margins, as well as an uptick in % margins, once all of the votes are counted.

[NOVA Green]

San Luis Obispo County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    137.2k Votes (49-40 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  46.4k Votes (53-47 Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  51.9k Votes (112% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(31-27-16-11 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/13/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 3.4k***

3.1k Provisional ballots

https://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Departments/Clerk-Recorder/Forms-Documents/Elections-and-Voting/Current-Elections/2020-03-03-Presidential-Primary/Documents/Ballots-Remaining-Report-2020-03-03.aspx

Voting will most likely be pretty much close to complete by end of week

Here is another example where you see a significant decline of Sanders support among a relatively White, Older, and affluent electorate, in this case with Warren likely taking a decent bite out of the Sanders '16 Coalition.



So, the overall trajectory heavily favored Biden up and including the 3/9 batch, as Biden gained 3.9%, with Sanders gaining only +0.6%....

The relatively small 3/13 dump of 1.7k Votes added +0.3% to Sanders, with Biden staying flat....

Although we aren't talking about tons of Provisional ballots, and some of them may well be PUB ballots, and of course not all Provisional ballots are accepted, I would not be surprised to see the Sanders final lead being only some like 3%, instead of the +6.2% lead on Election Night.

Haven't been able to track down any real type of precinct map yet....

[NOVA Green]

Fresno County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    287k Votes (49-43 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  81.1k Votes (56-43 HRC)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  88.2k Votes (109% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(36-28-8-13 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/13/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 1.2k***

400 VbM, 120 Provisional, 680 Conditional....

Looking like we are close to the endgame here....




Fresno County looks like it is most likely done, and the 3/11 > 3/13 results indicate this is virtually the end of the road in terms of DEM margins here, with maybe a +0.1% to 0.2% shift when it comes to Biden/Bernie

[NOVA Green]

Kern County--- 3/13 Update

2016 GE:    244.2k Votes (40-53 HRC-Trump)
2016 DEM PRIM:  53.2k Votes (54-44 HRC)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):  52.4k Votes (98% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

(36-28-8-13 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/10/20- Uncounted Ballots Report- TOT EST 42.7k***

29.7k VbM, 13k Provisional....

Still, we had an additional 11k DEM Ballots counted before the 3/13 update, next time we see results from Kern County will likely be overwhelmingly Provisional.

Stay tuned, even without a graph and charts...

+5.6% Sanders now +8.2% Sanders, looks like at min it will be something closer to a +10% Sander win....

[BlueSwan]

So, do we reckon that they'll be done counting in time for the convention?

[2016]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Sanders GAINED a little over 100K since Election Night when his lead was only 260K. Now it's 363K and the Biden Campaign didn't expected this.

His margin was also cut in half and is less than Biden's in Massachusetts which Bernie was supposed to win!