Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories may pick up some Quebec City seats they lost in 2011, and might win a couple unexpected seats due to a lot of 4-way vote splits in rural Quebec.

I absolutely agree, but I also think that would happen if they got 15% in Quebec given the NDP's decline there.

[DC Al Fine]

So what does Trudeau get out of this? Why would he want a damaged goods Tory?

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=10820072

Ujjal Dosanjh calls for a national licensing scheme for organized religion. 

That man can be oddly nuts at times. 

In a similar light, Francois Legault wants mosques to be investigated before they are allowed to open

Well, good to know my support of PLQ last time wasn't misplaced.

[DC Al Fine]

"fundamentalist multiculturalist".

lolololololol

Why is that funny? Seems like an adequate description.

I understand than white supremacy is the default position in Denmark (which have been often called in Quebec news, the most racist country in Western Europe), but Canada is multicultural. Made of French (1600), English (1700), Scottish (1700), Irish (1850), German (1900), Polish (1925), Italian, Black (1950) and now Arabs cultures.

Blacks started showing up in Nova Scotia around the same time the English did.

[DC Al Fine]

This story has come to the forefront of the news in the last several days.  A judge in Montreal refused to hear a Muslim woman's case about her car being impounded because the woman refused, on the judge's insistence, to remove her hijab in the courtroom. 

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.2975615/a-montreal-judge-refused-to-hear-a-muslim-woman-s-case-because-she-was-wearing-a-headscarf-1.2976498

If we're so concerned about the causes of radicalization, making people feel as little at home in a society as possible merely for wearing certain kinds of clothing should be on the radar screen.  This kind of thing is only counterproductive.

Has anyone noticed that an increasing number of stories coming out of Quebec resemble what you'd expect to come out of the Deep South?

[DC Al Fine]

This story has come to the forefront of the news in the last several days.  A judge in Montreal refused to hear a Muslim woman's case about her car being impounded because the woman refused, on the judge's insistence, to remove her hijab in the courtroom. 

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.2975615/a-montreal-judge-refused-to-hear-a-muslim-woman-s-case-because-she-was-wearing-a-headscarf-1.2976498

If we're so concerned about the causes of radicalization, making people feel as little at home in a society as possible merely for wearing certain kinds of clothing should be on the radar screen.  This kind of thing is only counterproductive.

Has anyone noticed that an increasing number of stories coming out of Quebec resemble what you'd expect to come out of the Deep South?

Don't blame the French nationalists for once, the judge is Italian (and Italians really don't go well with French nationalists).

Ah, but I'm being critical of Quebec not Quebec nationalists.

[DC Al Fine]

That judge should be fired. Clearly contradicts the charter. 

Indeed. This laicite crap coming from (admittedly only some of) Quebec needs to stop.

[DC Al Fine]

Quarterly Atlantic Canada polls are out.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 58% (-6)
PC:  20% (+2)
NDP: 18% (+4)

New Brunswick
Lib: 54% (+2)
PC:  27% (+4)
NDP: 9% (-5)
Green: 9% (-1)

Newfoundland
Lib: 56% (-4)
PC:  31% (+2)
NDP: 13% (+3)

PEI
Lib: 58% (+8)
PC:  26% (+3)
NDP: 12% (-3)
Green: 4% (-7)

Of note:
1) The Liberal honeymoon in NS might finally be starting to ahead. However, they are still 13 points over what they got in the last election.

2) The NB NDP's horriawful result.

[DC Al Fine]

Do you think there will be high level casualties in the federal election? (i.e. MacKay, Shea, other Cabinet Ministers losing their seats losing their seats)

There will be some in Atlantic Canada, yes. Gail Shea will probably go down. Bernard Valcourt almost certainly will. Peter MacKay on the other will probably be ok. His seat is reasonably safe, and the Liberals had some of their worst results there in the recent provincial election.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't be that pessimistic Hatman. Here's the Atlantic NDP seats from most to least vunerable.

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: Barely won last time during the worst Liberal result ever, and the Liberals have a popular city councillor who represents a heavily NDP area running. Bob Chisholm is a goner.

Acadie-Bathurst: Only votes NDP due to ridiculously popular incumbent who's not running. Also a goner.

Halifax: A reasonably strong NDP area but Leslie is somewhat less loved than her predecessor, and the seat is vulnerable to a "bourgeois bloc" mentality, and Leslie is prone to making statements that foster that effect. The Liberals will probably when this seat and lose it again the next time they falter in Atlantic Canada. However it isn't a total write off for the NDP

Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook: Stoffer is ridiculously popular here and the most anti-NDP part of the seat was risdistributed out of the riding. Will stay NDP until Stoffer retires.

St. John's East: Harris is popular and the seat has a long anti-Liberal history. The only way the Liberals would win if there was a Tory incumbent.

Seriously Hatman, Stoffer and Harris would need current NDP support in Atlantic Canada to be cut in half to lose their seats. Their seats are safe, and Halifax isn't a total write off yet.

[DC Al Fine]

"Anyways, Shea might lose her seat, but Mackay might be safe. It'll be the last Tory seat to go down in Nova Scotia. "

The Liberals trying to beat MacKay is a case of 'be careful what you wish for"  Should the Conservatives lose the next election and Harper step down, MacKay would be the frontrunner if he is still an M.P
Without him, Jason Kenney would be the likely frontrunner.  While Kenney is competent and capable, MacKay is a total incompetent and is stupid.

MacKay's past his best by date. I'd say Moore is a better candidate for the Reds.

[DC Al Fine]

I moved this month. My new provincial riding is Bedford. Still in Halifax West federally.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP would tax stock-options, as more and more executives are paid in stock-options to evade taxes. Would be interested to hear Liberal and Conservative reaction to that.

What exactly are they doing?

All the articles and press releases say things like close the loophole, but they could mean three or four different things by that since stock options are such an odd sort of income from a taxation perspective.

[DC Al Fine]

EDIT: on the topic of Alberta, the government tabled the budget for this year today.  Notable amongst the changes is the abandonment of the flat income tax; starting in 2016, new higher tax brackets will come into existence for incomes between $100,000 and $250,000 per year, and for incomes over $250,000 per year.

One small quibble. I wouldn't really call Alberta's taxation truly flat in the first place. I count 18 tax credits on their provincial return

[DC Al Fine]

NDP would tax stock-options, as more and more executives are paid in stock-options to evade taxes. Would be interested to hear Liberal and Conservative reaction to that.

What exactly are they doing?

All the articles and press releases say things like close the loophole, but they could mean three or four different things by that since stock options are such an odd sort of income from a taxation perspective.

Well, I'm not part of the NDP leader ship and they don't seem to have described in details how they would do it (which is normal, you want to convince voters, not explain fiscality to specialists).

Ok. One small quibble. The reason why stock options are so popular is because they are a cheap form of compensation for the company, not because of the favourable tax treatment the employee receives.

[DC Al Fine]

Why did she join the PCs again?

Because she's dumb and massively overestimated her popularity with a party she spent several years attacking?

Seriously though, how the hell do you engineer a mass floor-crossing and not negotiate guaranteed nominations?

[DC Al Fine]

Why did she join the PCs again?

Because she's dumb and massively overestimated her popularity with a party she spent several years attacking?

Seriously though, how the hell do you engineer a mass floor-crossing and not negotiate guaranteed nominations?

She tried, but from what I gather, the PC caucus would have revolted if that was carried out.

I understand up to that point, but it still baffles me that she didn't break off negotiations when Prentice couldn't guarantee nominations. After all, if you are killing your party to gain access to power, you better make damn sure you actually get access

[DC Al Fine]

A more reputable Alberta poll is out.

PC: 46%
Lib: 18%
NDP: 17%
Wildrose: 16%

Well this has all the makings of a PC landslide

[DC Al Fine]

Re: Above. It's Environics for Feb. The link on wiki makes you download a zip, so I didn't post it.

[DC Al Fine]

How does a creationist get elected in Vancouver Island of all places?

Did you know he was a creationist say a year ago?

If you don't go around advertizing it, I imagine its fairly easily to be elected as a creationist with any party.

[DC Al Fine]

I was watching videos from around the world, take a look to Canada and !!! I'm so clueless about Sikhs as MPs. And even the conservatives have at least one member! Someone knows some article or book of sikh integration in Canadian politics? Sorry for my English, I'm quite drunk.

Don't know of anything Sikh specific, but here's a quick general analysis:

Canadian politics is somewhat different than other Western nations in part because the main right wing party actually does ok with immigrants. In fact, the Tories did better with immigrants than natives last time.



Canadian politics is better understood by viewing each ethnic/religious group individually, rather than looking at a white vs. minority divide. For example, Jews & Chinese tend to vote Conservative, Arabs tend to vote Liberal, and I believe Aboriginals mostly vote NDP.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think Sikh's are somewhere in the middle.

[DC Al Fine]

In light of Bevan-Baker's recent win, what strategy should to expand their beachheads federally and in NB/PEI?

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories are contemplating allowing voluntary contributions to CPP.

I'm glad to see them come around on this issue. I only wish it was mandatory

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories are contemplating allowing voluntary contributions to CPP.

I'm glad to see them come around on this issue. I only wish it was mandatory

I suppose than, as usual, Quebec would be exempted?

It was a trial balloon so no details yet... but yeah I'd assume that.

[DC Al Fine]

L+1

The Liberals managed one weak win in 1993. They might get Central Nova if they win a heft majority, but not when they're at 30% in the polls.