Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (user search)
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159579 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #175 on: June 03, 2015, 04:04:44 PM »

I was an impressionable child during the mid 1990s, so separatists where very much a boogeyman to me. That era of Canadian politics still feels nightmarish to me. I hope you understand why so many anglophones have irrational feelings about Quebec nationalism.

Doubly so out East, where Quebec nationalism aimed to turn us into an exclave cut off from the rest of the country. Anti-Quebecer sentiment runs deep here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #176 on: June 09, 2015, 04:43:19 PM »

Question for Hatman, RogueBeaver, MaxQue, and any others who may wish to contribute.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Canada is headed toward a United Kingdom type political landscape, that is, with a conservative or center right party, the Conservative Party, and a socialist party, or moderate leftist party, the New Democratic Party, as the two dominant parties, with the Liberal Party basically going the way of the U.K. Liberal Party?

Do you see the above scenario happening any time soon, or at some time in the future?


It's conceivable and almost certainly would have happened had Justin Trudeau not ran for leader.

That said, anything is possible. At this point, any of the big three could win a majority.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #177 on: June 09, 2015, 04:52:33 PM »

The rest of the quarterly Atlantic polls are out

Nova Scotia
Lib: 50% (-8)
NDP: 27% (+9)
PC: 19% (-1)

New Brunswick
Lib: 38% (-16)
PC: 28% (+1)
NDP: 23% (+14)
Green: 11% (+1)

This is good news for the NS NDP as they are defending two narrow wins in by-elections soon. Also, holy crap look at that NB swing.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #178 on: June 10, 2015, 04:21:24 PM »

The rest of the quarterly Atlantic polls are out

Nova Scotia
Lib: 50% (-8)
NDP: 27% (+9)
PC: 19% (-1)

New Brunswick
Lib: 38% (-16)
PC: 28% (+1)
NDP: 23% (+14)
Green: 11% (+1)

This is good news for the NS NDP as they are defending two narrow wins in by-elections soon. Also, holy crap look at that NB swing.

Has that austerity budget come out yet in Nova Scotia?

Yes, they bungled it pretty badly. There was a blowup over cuts to film & television subsidies (as an aside, if there was ever a bloated welfare program that needed cutting, it was that Tongue). Actually, I'm kind of surprised that the Liberals are doing as well as they are. I would've guessed they'd be in the low 40's.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #179 on: June 10, 2015, 04:23:33 PM »

While I agree with JVF, that anything is possible in politics, I really doubt his popularity or lack thereof will matter much in 2023. How many non-hacks refuse to vote Liberal because Paul Martin?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #180 on: June 11, 2015, 04:33:09 PM »

Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?

Not by a long shot. The Liberals would have to come another very distant third before anyone even thinks about writing their obituary and even with the recent NDP surge that doesn't look especially likely.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #181 on: June 12, 2015, 05:46:07 PM »

Does anyone think Duceppe's goals would be better served had he run for the PQ leadership?

Perhaps, but then he'd have been better served if he hadn't had two botched entries into provincial politics already.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #182 on: June 15, 2015, 04:56:24 PM »

Provincial By elections have been called in Cape Breton Centre, Dartmouth South & Sydney-Whitney Pier.  They should be all holds, although the Liberals could conceivably pick up either of the NDP seats.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #183 on: June 16, 2015, 08:48:22 PM »

Really, you think the NDP can hold them?

Sure. The polls aren't that far off of the 2013 result and those two ridings are one of the few places with a decent number of tribal NDP voters.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #184 on: June 17, 2015, 08:55:42 PM »

Would a national referendum be possible a la the Charlottetown Accord?

No. Referendums don't have national legal force.

As RB said, both houses of Parliament and all the legislatures must pass amendments to the constitution. Three provinces (BC, Alberta & Quebec), have laws on their books stating that constitutional amendments must pass a referendum in that province before the legislature can assent to it, but there is no mechanism for a national referendum to have legal force. The Charlottetown referendum was more about avoiding the perception of unfairness that would have resulted if only three provinces got to vote.

A bill abolishing the Senate could win massively in a referendum, and still not change anything so long as a single legislature was against it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #185 on: June 19, 2015, 07:47:09 PM »


Too bad, although caring for one's disabled child is about the most noble reason to quit possible.

This leaves the Reds without a leader, although I suspect Michelle Rempel will fill that role soon enough.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #186 on: June 19, 2015, 08:05:58 PM »

Rempel has no interest in leadership.

News to me. Who does that leave? Rob Nicholson is the only other prominent Red I can think of, and I doubt he wants the job.

The next leadership convention is looking more and more like a Kenney landslide.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #187 on: June 19, 2015, 10:23:10 PM »

Lisa Raitt, maybe? She herself has left the door open. Nicholson seems a natural pick for interim leader.

Raitt would get demolished over his "cancer is sexy" comment.

Is that even relevant given that Kenney is set to demolish whoever runs against him? The Reds need someone reasonably prominent to run, and they're short on candidates.

Besides, it was 6 years ago, and even most political junkies don't remember it.

Given how non-delegated leadership conventions tend to have few candidates. I imagine the field will be as follows:

1) Kenney
2) Red Tory (Raitt maybe?)
3) Bernier
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #188 on: June 20, 2015, 07:12:45 AM »

I'm sorry, I haven't been following Canadian politics of late.  Can someone give me a brief explanation of what prompted the massive surge in support for the NDP in the recent national polling?


Justin Trudeau and the Liberals stumbled since they voted for a Conservative security bill that was very unpopular with progressives.

The NDP surged in Alberta in part because they were the main alternative for a great many voters who didn't want service cuts in the recession.

There are a huge number of progressive voters who aren't tied to any party, so the NDP surge, and Liberal stumble caused a lot of people to jump ship quickly nationwide.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #189 on: July 13, 2015, 07:13:08 AM »

Wildrose always leads in polls well before an election. I'm not getting worried about Notley. At least until the Foothills by-election.

Agreed. Even if they have a disastrous term and get booted out of office, they shouldn't start worrying unless it's <1 year to election time and they are losing. Wynne managed to incxrease her seat count despite being down in the polls early.

Forum poll says NDP continues to lead in Ontario provincially. No leader is popular, although Horwath's approvals are decent. Forum says the NDP would take a plurality of seats, unlike the last poll where PCs lead in seats despite trailing in the popular vote.


Forum's seat projections are garbage as Hatman and RB can attest.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #190 on: August 01, 2015, 09:27:47 AM »

Will we ever see a Liberal-NDP coalition in the future? Just a random question

Assuming Con > Lib, Con > NDP, Con < NDP + Lib, almost certainly, or at least some sort of informal working arrangement.
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