Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (user search)
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159582 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2014, 01:49:47 PM »

Headline from 1990. Trudeau says all Grit candidates must be pro-choice.

Guess Szabo & McTeague aren't running again.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #51 on: May 10, 2014, 11:54:15 AM »

Historic: PLQ 40%, CAQ 27%, PQ 19%. PQ third among Francophones (!!!) 33% CAQ, 29% PLQ, 23% PQ. Last among voters under 45. Part of this is normal for landslide defeats, but Leger said he's never seen anything like it. Question is now whether Vincent Lemieux was right and PQ is a one-generation pony.

That looks pretty bad for the PQ when it comes to seats. The PQ has the same problem as the Bloc; not many bastions of support. When the tide goes against them, they really feel it. They might salvage a dozen seats with that result.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #52 on: May 18, 2014, 02:20:13 PM »

Old news but forgot to post: Tory MPs Greg Kerr (West Nova, BC) and Colin Mayes (Okanagan-Shuswap, BC) will retire next year.

Surprising for Greg Kerr, he is only elected since 2008, but I suppose he thought he would lose next time (Harper is very unpopular in the Atlantic), and his riding voted Liberal in 2006. He won 47-36 over the former Liberal MP last time.

He's been in politics since 1978. I imagine he's ready to retire. Kerr was probably the Tories only hope in West Nova. Goodbye West Nova I guess Unsure
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #53 on: May 19, 2014, 08:29:38 AM »


Can't believe I missed that one Tongue

Also, West Nova & Central Nova are stupid riding names.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #54 on: May 19, 2014, 06:25:51 PM »


Annapolis Valley-Yarmouth and East Shore-Pictou

Can't believe I missed that one Tongue

Also, West Nova & Central Nova are stupid riding names.

Yes, they are. What would you call them?

West Nova is easy: Yarmouth-Digby-Annapolis. Covers the three main counties that make up 90% of the riding.

Central Nova is a bit tougher since it's an awkward riding. Maybe Pictou-Eastern Shore or Pictou-Antigonish-Eastern Shore. The 2nd one is more accurate but it sounds funny Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2014, 06:58:27 AM »

What about Yarmouth-Digby-Annapolis Valley ?

Yeah that would work. It would also cover the chunk of Kings county that's in the riding without adding another place to the riding name. What are some other terribly named ridings? The only one I can think of off the top of my head is New Brunswick Southwest, but I'm sure there are others... Maybe some of the Alberta ridings? There's no way that "Manning" is an actual neighbourhood in Edmonton Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2014, 03:00:12 PM »

I'm kind of curious what they'll do in in Calgary next redistribution. It's big enough that they could start using riding names other than Calgary_______ but the city grew so fast, there aren't really any alternative place names to use. There's no equivalent to Etobicoke or Scarborough for Calgary is there?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2014, 08:17:26 PM »

I hate appending "University" to riding names. But you're right about Quilchena. I couldn't find much referring to the area as that.

This may be getting too long for you, but what about "Vancouver West End--Point Grey"?


ETA: Actually, "Vancouver-Point Grey" might be inclusive enough, since there are areas in the south of the riding called Point Grey as well.

Cardinal-Direction geography is tricky in Vancouver, and any name including a cardinal direction is probably in no way a symmetrical concept with a similar name including a different cardinal direction.  'The West End' refers to the portion of the downtown peninsula NW of Burrard St. and SW of Georgia St, which is part of Vancouver-Centre.

Point Grey refers to two things- the headland on which UBC sits (a term which is not frequently encountered for lack of need to use it), and the rather tony neighborhood between Blanca St, 16th Avenue, and Alma St. This neighborhood is quite small compared to Vancouver Point Grey, and smaller still next to Vancouver Quadra, though the headland does itself make a good name. 

What's wrong with -University?

Every major city in Canada has a university, there is nothing unique about using it in a riding name.

I think it would be ok if the riding used a specific university name that wasn't just a place name. i.e. Toronto-Ryerson would be ok but Toronto-UofT would not.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #58 on: May 23, 2014, 03:44:41 PM »

The NS Liberals are liberalizing NS's outdated apprenticeship rules. Good for them.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #59 on: May 26, 2014, 04:12:28 PM »


Interestingly, Keddy only broke 40% of the vote in one of his 6 election victories (2011).

Probably going to lose that one in 2015, but the riding  has a long history of the NDP & Liberals splitting the progressive vote, so maybe there's an outside chance at the Tories keeping it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #60 on: May 30, 2014, 08:06:10 AM »

Scott Armstrong is running again.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #61 on: June 03, 2014, 11:58:22 AM »

New provincial CRA polls

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 57 (-3)
PC: 21 (+1)
NDP: 19 (+1)
Green: 3 (+1)

PEI
Liberal: 53 (nc)
PC: 23 (+6)
NDP: 21 (-1)
Green: 3 (-4)

Nothing particularly interesting. The upswing for the PEI Tories is the result of them not being in the middle of a civil war anymore. Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #62 on: June 06, 2014, 07:17:30 AM »

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #63 on: June 07, 2014, 08:16:26 AM »

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

I don't know. He nearly won the Rothesay by-election, which is the richest riding in the province.

Rothesay was an exceptional circumstance. In the span of a week, the Tories recreated a patronage job they had cut (and attacked the Liberals for keeping in the 2010 campaign), appointed a sitting MLA to said patronage job and called a by-election. Needless to say, people were pissed.

The NDP still have a good shot at winning 1-2 ridings in Saint John, but Rothesay is not indicative of any trend.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #64 on: June 13, 2014, 10:24:25 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2014, 10:27:17 AM by Senator DC »

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2014, 11:59:45 AM »


Oh yeah, forgot that was going on Tongue

Looks like BQ 2015 will be like Socreds 1980. Bellavance wasn't great but at least he'd have some presence in the house. Too bad, I was hoping for a 3-4 way fight in QC next year.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2014, 05:13:25 PM »

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?

Higher rental rates?

I know I for one have given up any ideas of buying a home in the near future - and my personal income is higher than the median income for Ottawa.

Perhaps. Canadian home prices are bizarre, albeit not so bad here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #67 on: June 14, 2014, 05:16:17 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2014, 05:30:18 PM by Senator DC »

NS Tory MLA Chuck Porter has quit/been ejected from caucus depending on who you believe.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #68 on: June 15, 2014, 11:35:23 AM »


I can see a lone Bloc MP winning off their personal vote, but yes I think this represents the end of the BQ as a serious party.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #69 on: June 15, 2014, 12:16:46 PM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

Yes. Reform was allowed in the '93 debates with only 1 MP (who won a by-election a couple years before). The Greens were invited in 2011 despite having no MP's at the time.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #70 on: June 15, 2014, 12:21:13 PM »

Hopefully there are major fireworks in the next debate between the Bloc's nutcase and the others (esp. Harper)!

Personally I think Mulcair would be the best candidate for fireworks with the Bloc since he's as prickly as Harper and is competing with Beaulieu for the same voters.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #71 on: June 16, 2014, 04:28:00 PM »

John Ottenheimer (former MHA, ran in Random-Burin-St. Georges federally in 2011) just threw his hat in the ring. My guess is a coronation followed by a snap election. Best thing to do IMO since that's the only way they'll salvage more than a rump caucus.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #72 on: June 18, 2014, 02:17:51 PM »

Lawrence MacAulay insists he will won't toe the party line over abortion.

Good for him.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #73 on: June 19, 2014, 05:36:37 AM »

Now he says he will. Wonder if JT would've expelled MacAulay had he defied the whip.

Probably. It's not like the long gun registry where cracking the whip means losing the riding.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #74 on: June 19, 2014, 10:58:02 AM »

New Forum poll

National
Liberal: 39% (+3)
Conservative: 31% (+1)
NDP: 19% (-4)
Green: 5% (nc)
Bloc Quebecois: 4% (-2)

Beaulieu is not panning out... Bloc @ 17% in Quebec.
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