Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (user search)
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159535 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #100 on: September 21, 2014, 07:52:11 PM »

So should we consider this election as a lost cause for PM Stephen Harper and his ruling Conservatives, and merely debate the extent to which he will be trounced next May?  

Not yet. The most recent polls have him only 6-7 pts back and the vagaries of FPTP favour the Tories. It's still conceivable that Harper will scrape a minority.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #101 on: September 23, 2014, 03:48:42 PM »


Boycotting would imply he used their services previously Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #102 on: October 05, 2014, 11:57:37 AM »

The Liberals have a star candidate in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, popular city councillor Darren Fisher. This is especially good for the Liberals since Fisher represents Harbourview-Burnside, the poorest, most NDP part of the riding. I imagine he'll knock off Robert Chisholm on election day.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #103 on: October 05, 2014, 12:02:33 PM »

On another note, the Liberals have picked a fight with the healthcare unions. The unions have been picketing the legislature for the past week. My office is next the legislature... I can hear the protesters...They have vuvuzuelas. Pray for me brothers!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #104 on: October 11, 2014, 06:47:46 AM »

Sorry if this has been posted already... but CBC has a vote compass for the Toronto Mayoral Election. My results were about what I expected.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #105 on: October 21, 2014, 11:15:20 AM »


So new it doesn't even have a wikipedia article?

I assume the Dipper is a goner, but what about Fortin? Any chance he wins his seat as a quasi-independent?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #106 on: October 21, 2014, 11:44:56 AM »

No, he'll lose to a Dipper most likely.

Why not the Liberals? They seem like the most logical winners to me.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #107 on: October 21, 2014, 12:22:57 PM »

Why? NDP is set to hold most of their Francophone ridings and the LPC bombed in Repentigny even during the Chretien era.

I'm talking about Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia. The Liberals performed reasonably well there last time.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #108 on: October 21, 2014, 07:15:34 PM »

Why? NDP is set to hold most of their Francophone ridings and the LPC bombed in Repentigny even during the Chretien era.

I'm talking about Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia. The Liberals performed reasonably well there last time.

That was because of Nancy Charest, a former Liberal MNA (who died in March), who had also done very well in 2008 (especially in her hometown of Matane, and the fairly anti-Bloc area around touristy Sainte-Anne-des-Monts). I would add that, to me, she did inexplicably well because I don't really get why a one-term MNA who won by a hair in 2003 would be so fetch.

The redistributed riding, where the Liberals would have finished third and the NDP second within 8% of the Bloc, takes in some parts of Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine where the Liberals have finished strong in a lot of recent elections, though.

Ok fair enough. I took Charest's #'s as "strong Liberal area" not "strong Liberal candidate"
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #109 on: October 23, 2014, 08:10:14 AM »

There's a gunman walking around downtown Halifax. I am locked in my office. No shots fired AFAIK.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #110 on: October 23, 2014, 09:49:53 AM »

The gunman has been arrested. No shots.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #111 on: October 27, 2014, 07:49:44 PM »

Since no one else has posted this, Jian Ghomeshi is into some freaky stuff.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #112 on: October 28, 2014, 04:44:25 PM »

Big storm in Manitoba NDP.

On Monday, the Ministers for Municipal Governments and for Finances asked to Greg Sellinger, the Premier and NDP leader to resign, since they think than he will be unable to win reelection. Today, the ministers for Health, Economy (and Jobs) and the Attorney General (and Justice) did the same think.

Today, in a press conference, Sellinger refused to do so.

I personally wouldn't fault Selinger too much. The NDP's problems have more to do with being a 4th term government and the resurgent Liberal party (read: Justine Trudeau) than anything Selinger's done. It's not like the Tories are polling much better than they did in 2011.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #113 on: November 12, 2014, 09:33:34 PM »

The Tories are doing their best to buy my vote. I'm annoyed with them and tempted to spoil my ballot, and along comes income splitting Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #114 on: November 18, 2014, 05:15:42 PM »

That's OK, no one knows anything about PEI politics.

This is true.

Federal Liberals courting former Tory Bill Casey

Of course it can't be true because Casey's pro-life, anti-gay marriage views will prevent Trudeau from signing his nomination papers Roll Eyes

h/t Rogue Beaver
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #115 on: November 18, 2014, 05:39:02 PM »

Yeah, but running means he's leaving that behind. Do you think he wins, DC?

Absolutely. My proportional swing model already has Cumberland-Colchester as a Liberal pick up, before the effect of any star candidacy. Besides, Casey is ridiculously popular in Nova Scotia. I saw a decent # of write-ins for him in Halifax West in 2011 while scrutineering.

My guess is he wins something like 55-30
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #116 on: November 18, 2014, 09:35:04 PM »


I saw several ballots with a candidate's name crossed out and "Bill Casey" written next to it. They were counted as spoiled ballots.

You know the Tories are in trouble if they're losing Cumberland-Colchester.

Yeah, Atlantic Canada's going to be a bloodbath.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #117 on: November 19, 2014, 05:17:45 PM »

Why no write-ins?  I can understand that in party primaries, but unless it's ludicrously easy to get on the ballot at the last moment, I fail to see why it shouldn't be an option.  Granted, there seldom is a need to count them.

One of the few areas where the US is more democratic than Canada (that and having an elected Senate Tongue ) I would've considered voting write-in in the last municipal elections.

Here's what a typical ballot looks like:



There is some white space, yes, but it would have to be in a candidate area. I've only scrutinized a ballot count once, and there were no spoilt ballots, letalone people writing things in.


Maybe it's a regional thing? Most spoiled ballots I've seen have something written in, even if its only an obscenity.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #118 on: November 24, 2014, 10:35:46 PM »

Yeah, WR has had a rough time lately from what I've read. If Smith loses and leaves, dynasty gets to push 60 (!).

PC's have found a winning formula.

1) Old leader resigns
2) New leader wins election
3) New leader is disgraced in some way
4) Repeat ad infinitum
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #119 on: November 25, 2014, 05:31:38 PM »


What the...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #120 on: November 25, 2014, 09:08:21 PM »


This is surreal.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #121 on: November 26, 2014, 05:18:52 PM »


Saint Leonard-Saint Michel has elected some pretty odious MP's, no?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #122 on: November 27, 2014, 07:40:21 AM »

From this morning's Halifax Chronicle-Herald

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #123 on: November 30, 2014, 08:05:30 PM »

Slightly old story, but too good not to share.

The son of Kings North MLA John Lohr broke into a luxury waterfront home and made his getaway via canoe!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #124 on: December 02, 2014, 04:51:57 PM »

Den Tandt on Tory leadership. My take: Kenney is the Heir Apparent, full stop. MacKay is not running, having long ago been superseded by Moore as Red leader. Raitt: possible, she seems purplish from profiles I've read of her. Moore is the Red who'll lose to Kenney. Clement: his leadership days are long gone, though he's likely the next finance minister. Rempel: Swap her for Poilievre as "round after next" hopeful. Chris Alexander: very swingy riding, no indication of interest or in our career pol leadership culture.

Agreed. Personally I think the race will be roughly as follows

1) Kenney
2) Moore
3) 1-2 MP's pushing an ideology or gunning to increase their profile
4) Random non politicians like you saw in the Liberal leadership. (Assuming the entry rules are loose)
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