Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

So if the separatist threat is no more, is there any chance Anglos will stop voting PLQ more than blacks vote Democrat?

[DC Al Fine]

Did Anglos flock to the ADQ after 2007? No

Sort of. Anglo seats went 70-15 instead of 85-5

[DC Al Fine]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

Playing around with my proportional swing model, the Bloc still have a fighting chance in Plamondon & Bellavance's seats (down 0.5% & 1.4% to the NDP)

EDIT: Also the Grit's ROQ still sucks. My model has the Libs head in only 5 ROQ seats. Hull, Louis-Hebert, one in the Townships, and two in the Gaspe.

[DC Al Fine]

Low-wage TFW program may be phased out in 2016.

Good riddance. Every argument I heard for TFW's was also a good argument to increase wages

[DC Al Fine]

Not proper cross tabs, but still:



You still voting Tory next time Njall?

[DC Al Fine]

It's certainly strange to see someone become more socially conservative over time. It's usually the other way around.

You've been hanging out on Atlas too much

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the guys with projection models:

I'm making my own model and I want to have a column that has the winner of each seat so I can do seat counts and quickly check who won each seat.

ie.
       A        B       C            D
1   Tory Liberal NDP     Winner
2    40%   30%  30%      Tory

The problem is, I'm having trouble coming with a formula to spit out the winner of each seat.

My current attempt is =LOOKUP(MAX(A2:C2), A2:C2, A1:C1), which sort of works. If the NDP, Bloc or Greens win the seat the cell correctly states the winner. However, if the Tories or Liberals win the seat, it says the Greens are the winner

Thoughts?

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks Ernest, it works great!

[DC Al Fine]

So yeah...

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau will be feted in Chester. DC, how would you rate Grit chances there next year?

There are a lot of factors going against the Liberals in the riding (no organization, Tory-NDP riding etc.), but they should still pick it up due to the sheer size of their lead in Atlantic Canada. I see it going something like 38-30-30.

[DC Al Fine]

My newest project is mapping religion by 2013 riding. It wqill be a long time before I can discuss with maps, but here's an interesting preliminary result.

The most Pentecostal riding in the country is Coast of Bays-Central, Notre Dame, with 19% of the riding identifying as Pentecostal!

[DC Al Fine]

Libman wants to run for the Tories in Mount Royal.

RB, I assume that would be bad for the party?

[DC Al Fine]

Why? He wouldn't win but we'd at least have a decent candidate. Only realistic targets are regaining 2011 losses, which I'm not terribly optimistic about ATM.

Oh, I remember reading something about the Equality Party blowing up or some such. Thought he might've been tainted by that.

Mount Royal is one of two Tory targets in Montreal (the other is Pierrefonds-Dollard). With Trudeau as leader, it might be impossible for the Tories to win the riding, but I feel it is trending Conservative, as the Jewish vote coalesces to them.

I could see it going Tory the next time they win government.

[DC Al Fine]

He can't stay outside the Leg for a year, someone has to resign. Paula Simons raised the possibility of another Getty moment on Twitter today.

Seems strange that he didn't run though. Njall is right. The best place for him to run is an old money riding that's too rich to vote Lib/NDP and too liberal to swing to Wildrose. Those would be the Tories' last stronghold. How many more of those ridings are there in AB?

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus federal NL poll: Grits crushing 54/27/15.

That should get them St. John's South-Mount Pearl. I imagine Harris is untouchable, so I doubt they'll get his seat until he's out of the picture

[DC Al Fine]

Yes, thankfully the PQ is no longer in office. But I wonder what the Anglo media will say when Couillard introduces his Charter in a few weeks? The PQ will be back eventually, and the PLQ is awful in its own way.

*Continues supporting fringe parties in Quebec*

[DC Al Fine]

CRA-PEI: 48/28/16.

CRA-NL: 58/26/15.
CRA-NS: 63/20/14.

NS NDP @ 14?!?!?!

[DC Al Fine]

In NS news Penny Boudreau, who strangled her daughter to keep her boyfriend got 20 to life.

Especially heinous crimes call for the noose, but this will do I suppose.

[DC Al Fine]

In NS news Penny Boudreau, who strangled her daughter to keep her boyfriend got 20 to life.

Especially heinous crimes call for the noose, but this will do I suppose.

That's a news from 2009.

...wow can't believe I missed that

[DC Al Fine]

Just finished reading "The Akerman Years" about the NS NDP in the '70's. It's mostly explaining the civil war between the Cape Breton and Halifax wings of the party, and by extension the conflicts between the working class and urban progressive wings of the party. Good read

[DC Al Fine]

NDP proposes a $15 minimum wage.

NL Tories choose their sacrificial lamb today.

PKP is gearing up to run for the PQ leadership. My prediction: he'll flop worse than Ryan did on the other side.

Good politicking on the NDP's part re the "low wage agenda".

Hopefully PKP does to the PQ what Beaulieu did to the Bloc.

[DC Al Fine]

Tax cuts may come sooner than expected.

I'm not complaining, but my provincial government is the ones who really need to cut taxes.

[DC Al Fine]

Harper leads on economic management (44/31/26) and foreign policy (42/32/26) while Trudeau leads on vision (40/35/25) and trust (37/33/30).

That's pretty comical; I guess ~vision~ trumps all for a sizable subset of voters

That article didn't give a sense of who would mainly benefit from the tax cuts--would it be a Bush Tax Cuts type deal or would they be spread more evenly across income brackets?

They haven't been announced yet.

Sounds like Stoffer will announce retirement tomorrow. Safe Grit pickup without him?

Absolutely.

[DC Al Fine]

Sounds like Stoffer will announce retirement tomorrow. Safe Grit pickup without him?

Very sad news. Is the provincial NDP having a leadership race? Maybe he will run!

Afraid not. He's already ruled it out.

There's been no word on a leadership convention yet. The new leader will probably be Maureen MacDonald, the current interim leader and de facto head of the party's left wing.

[DC Al Fine]

Stoffer is running again. Said he planned to retire but got encouragement to stay.

And Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook goes back to Safe NDP.