COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1485958788851064839

Great to see another country achieving freedom from the pandemic. We owe vaccines and our dear friend omicron a massive debt. Hopefully only weeks until Biden too can declare this thing over.

Biden won't do it. The Democratic Party has completely embraced COVID restrictions as part of its political platform and its identity. It certainly doesn't help that almost all of the party's strategists are suburban snoots that think a midterm strategy devoted to "Stay Home, Save Lives" and agonizing over Marjorie Taylor Greene will be effective.

I agree. I am thinking that the Democrats will run on permanent mask mandates, rolling lockdowns, and other hygiene theater and virtue signaling stuff regarding COVID in the midterm elections.

All that I really support at this point regarding COVID NPIs is mask mandates in schools, hospitals, medical facilities, public transport, prisons, governmental offices, vet facilities, animal shelters, homeless shelters, and mental homes, so the Democratic platform regarding COVID restrictions I am not 100% in support. Still, I wear an N95 mask most of the time and have no problem with private businesses implementing COVID restrictions.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1485958788851064839

Great to see another country achieving freedom from the pandemic. We owe vaccines and our dear friend omicron a massive debt. Hopefully only weeks until Biden too can declare this thing over.

Biden won't do it. The Democratic Party has completely embraced COVID restrictions as part of its political platform and its identity. It certainly doesn't help that almost all of the party's strategists are suburban snoots that think a midterm strategy devoted to "Stay Home, Save Lives" and agonizing over Marjorie Taylor Greene will be effective.

I agree. I am thinking that the Democrats will run on permanent mask mandates, rolling lockdowns, and other hygiene theater and virtue signaling stuff regarding COVID in the midterm elections.

I seem to recall a time that you supported permanent mask mandates.

My views changed in November after the off year elections. People are entitled to change their views as conditions change. 

[MATTROSE94]

Thoughts on NY's mask mandate being ruled unconstitutional?

We spent the 2010s fighting against the school-to-prison pipeline.

But the 2020s have been spent turning schools into prisons.

Masks in schools must go, and there must be accountability for those who enforced it.

I agree, but probably not for another 2 or 3 months, as a lot of children are still at risk for COVID. In 2 or 3 months, more children should be vaccinated, so school mask mandates should ideally end then.

[MATTROSE94]

Thoughts on NY's mask mandate being ruled unconstitutional?

We spent the 2010s fighting against the school-to-prison pipeline.

But the 2020s have been spent turning schools into prisons.

Masks in schools must go, and there must be accountability for those who enforced it.

I agree, but probably not for another 2 or 3 months, as a lot of children are still at risk for COVID. In 2 or 3 months, more children should be vaccinated, so school mask mandates should ideally end then.

What about high schools? HS students have been eligible for vaccination since last May

The mask mandates in high schools should be dropped or left up to the discretion of school districts.

[MATTROSE94]

All COVID restrictions should be dropped immediately

Most states I think will end all COVID restrictions by the end of year (with the exception of California, Hawaii, Oregon, Illinois, Washington, DC, New York, and New Jersey), though I don’t think COVID restrictions are going to be over at the federal level until 2025. Some colleges and private institutions may keep COVID restrictions in place for another 10 years or longer however.

[MATTROSE94]

You still have to wear a mask in any Las Vegas casino.  
You can’t claim America is a free country while this is true.

I would rather not visit Las Vegas anyway due to the fact that it is becoming a increasingly pro-Trump city.

[MATTROSE94]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

I would say that about 30% of the population will continue to follow very strict COVID precautions indefinitely and that certain states (California, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, DC, New York, and Illinois) and institutions (colleges, private businesses, etc.) will keep their respective COVID NPIs in place for the long term.

It is really up to people to judge their risk calculus regarding COVID at this point. My risk calculus is less than others, though I still wear an N95 at my job and in certain settings. During the pandemic, I have travelled, attended mass events, and eaten out indoors, though I understand that for others, those activities represent a risk to them.

[MATTROSE94]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

I would say that about 30% of the population will continue to follow very strict COVID precautions indefinitely and that certain states (California, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, DC, New York, and Illinois) and institutions (colleges, private businesses, etc.) will keep their respective COVID NPIs in place for the long term.

It is really up to people to judge their risk calculus regarding COVID at this point. My risk calculus is less than others, though I still wear an N95 at my job and in certain settings. During the pandemic, I have travelled, attended mass events, and eaten out indoors, though I understand that for others, those activities represent a risk to them.

Same here. I wear masks when I am told and have gotten the booster the weekend before Thanksgiving. However, as soon as I was vaccinated, I stopped wearing masks.

Yeah. My job requires masks for its employees and some places I go to such as the Apple Store and pharmacies still require masks, so I wear my N95 there. When I got back to law school in August, I will start wearing the mask more because my school has very strict mask protocols. For the most part I became more lax wearing the mask when I got my booster shot in November. On a side note, I was around about 10 people who had Omicron without wearing masks around them and still tested negative. Maybe the vaccines are working good for me transmission wise?

[MATTROSE94]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

I am curious to know how the situation would have turned out if our leadership had taken the same approach to the pandemic that the Scandinavian countries did, with fewer restrictions and more encouragement of social interaction.

Not sure how it would have turned out. Another interesting thing to speculate is if the original COVID strain was either Delta or Omicron. If it was Omicron, I would have been less supportive of restrictions at the beginning, but if it was Delta, then I probably would have supported Chinese style lockdowns in the US.

[MATTROSE94]

Why remove vax mandates? Mask mandates I get, but vax mandates aren't at all interfering with anyone's lives.

I agree. I was in NYC a month ago and pretty much every place checked my vaccine status. It wasn’t a big deal at all considering that I have my vaccine card stored in a phone app. I feel that vaccine mandates are much preferable to mask mandates. Besides, it is also funny seeing MAGA supporters get triggered by vaccine mandates.

[MATTROSE94]

Some interesting news out of California.

https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2022/02/endemic-covid-california-strategy/

Interesting. I thought California was eying a Zero COVID strategy instead.

[MATTROSE94]

I will say the double masking and requiring masks even outdoors in Peru has done nothing to slow the spread there.

The weirdest I’ve seen is a lot of higher risk people doubling or even tripling up ineffective masks like neck gators and the blue surgical masks. It puzzles me why they don’t just use an N95 if they are that worried.

[MATTROSE94]

I will say the double masking and requiring masks even outdoors in Peru has done nothing to slow the spread there.

The weirdest I’ve seen is a lot of higher risk people doubling or even tripling up ineffective masks like neck gators and the blue surgical masks. It puzzles me why they don’t just use an N95 if they are that worried.

The effective combination should be cloth mask on top, surgical mask underneath. The main issue with surgical masks is that they have large gaps on the sides and the bottom, so if you put the cloth mask on top of the surgical mask it seals up the gaps and the result is an effective double mask. I remember in late 2020 estimates had the double mask at 80-90% effectiveness at filtration.

N95 masks are still a lot more effective than doubling up cloth and surgical masks. If people are that worried, N95s make more sense to protect them better.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1496364357814476802

Interesting theory, though this goes against my belief that COVID was around as early as late 2018.

[MATTROSE94]

CDC to significantly ease pandemic mask guidelines Friday

Good. There will be a change at my workplace. Two days ago, some of my coworkers told me that corporate has decided to lift the employee mask mandate, but it hasn't been announced yet. Apparently, the change could be made by next week. The CDC relaxing its recommendations, as I've hoped, would provide the final push.

My job left mask mandates up to each district manager. Unfortunately, the district manager at my job is very strict about COVID (she wears three or four masks and gloves whenever she is in), so the employee mask mandate isn’t going anywhere. I am going back to law school in August, so the mask stuff at my job I will tolerate until then. My law school is keeping the mask mandate as well however, though I can deal with it there.

[MATTROSE94]

A few days in to the end of Illinois' six-month-long mask mandate, almost no one is wearing them from what I have seen, except for the Ash Wednesday service that I attended this evening where almost everyone was wearing them.

I wonder if people who attend Mass are more likely to wear a mask or if people feel more guilty at Mass and put them on while there.

A lot of the Catholic Churches, synagogues, and mosques at least in New York and New Jersey are very strict about masking as well. Not so much with Protestant churches however.

[MATTROSE94]

I find masks acceptable to wear around Halloween outside. Not otherwise.

I wear a mask indoors because I have severe anxiety and my mother has respiratory issues so I don't want to risk taking the virus home, do you find that unacceptable?

No, there can be valid reasoning to wearing masks indoors but I doubt the effectiveness of cloth masks against newer variants.

Most people I see don’t even use the right types of mask and instead triple or quadruple up ineffective surgical masks. Why don’t the people who want to mask up wear N95s instead? I am thinking the must be masking at this stage of the game as a way to virtue signal or do a form of hygiene theater.

[MATTROSE94]

I find masks acceptable to wear around Halloween outside. Not otherwise.

I wear a mask indoors because I have severe anxiety and my mother has respiratory issues so I don't want to risk taking the virus home, do you find that unacceptable?

No, there can be valid reasoning to wearing masks indoors but I doubt the effectiveness of cloth masks against newer variants.

Most people I see don’t even use the right types of mask and instead triple or quadruple up ineffective surgical masks. Why don’t the people who want to mask up wear N95s instead? I am thinking the must be masking at this stage of the game as a way to virtue signal or do a form of hygiene theater.

At my job, I've noticed that of the ~10% or so who are still masking up, many of them are wearing surgical or cloth masks. Given that we know cloth masks in particular are less effective than surgical and N95 masks, as you note, I don't know why they continue to do so. It is self-defeating in a way. I haven't seen that many double maskers in a while, though. Moreover, over the past week or so, at least three employees who were still holding out and masking up have stopped doing so. One of them told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has, he has stopped. There are still a half-dozen other holdouts, however.

Only three people at my job still mask up, though one only masks up when customers are around. All three are vaxxed and boosted as well, but prefer to mask up to play it safe. I still see around 10 customers per day who wear multiple masks and around 50 who still mask up overall.

[MATTROSE94]

Remember when they promised a vaccine that was reformulated to protect us from Omicron would be out by March?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Yeah, I'm vaxed and boosted but I'm done with further shots until we get a reformulated one that targets the viruses that are actually in circulation nowadays. With my young age, good physical health, and the fact I get badly sick for 2-3 days after each shot, I see no reason to participate in Pfizer and Moderna's continued cash-cowing of their now-outdated vaccines.

It is weird that Pfizer and Moderna are still using vaccines that are for variants that are about 4 or 5 generations in the past.

[MATTROSE94]

Remember when they promised a vaccine that was reformulated to protect us from Omicron would be out by March?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Yeah, I'm vaxed and boosted but I'm done with further shots until we get a reformulated one that targets the viruses that are actually in circulation nowadays. With my young age, good physical health, and the fact I get badly sick for 2-3 days after each shot, I see no reason to participate in Pfizer and Moderna's continued cash-cowing of their now-outdated vaccines.

It is weird that Pfizer and Moderna are still using vaccines that are for variants that are about 4 or 5 generations in the past.

I mean the mRNA vaccines are still extremely effective against significant sickness from covid. No reason not to leave the channel open for those who are still unvaccinated and/or unboosted.

I agree. They are 90% effective or more against severe outcomes and still around 50% against getting COVID. Pfizer and Moderna need to speed up developing better COVID vaccines however that are 100% effective.

[MATTROSE94]

Nick, yes long covid symptons can come and go. If that's what it is, something could have inflamed it (stress, another virus, etc). Matt there won't be something 100% effective but it can probably be better. I'm sure they're working on it, but I think the first priority was lowering the death toll from the variants.

The Walter Reade COVID vaccine is promising and should have at least 95% efficacy from what I have read. The problem is that it won’t be available until 2025.

[MATTROSE94]

Public transportation mask mandate extended for 15 days.

Just 2 more weeks, man! Just 2 more weeks! We promise! This time, we mean it! Just 2 more weeks to flatten the curve, man!

With how the MSM is trying to scare us about a 'spring surge', I don't think they are going to let us go unmasked on public transportation any time soon

I agree 100%. BTW, which states do you think will be first to implement and N95 mandate? My money is on New York, Hawaii, or California, but I could be wrong.

[MATTROSE94]

Are they trying to set the scene to bring back the mandates?

Probably. If the Democrats try to bring the mandates back, they will be lucky to hold onto about 50 House seats and will only hold onto California, Vermont, and Hawaii in terms of the Senate races. I do see a lot more people on Twitter expressing support for reinstating stringent COVID mandates, so that is something to keep in mind.

[MATTROSE94]

I mean, Covid is worse than the Black Death after all.

SnowLabrador and the Trump Virus seem to think it is.

Also Forumlurker and compucomp as well. They are very big COVID hawks and still support masking and toyed with the idea of capacity limits being reinstated. At least the Trump Virus isn’t a supporter of COVID restrictions anymore.

[MATTROSE94]

I heard a rumor that New Jersey and New York are going to reinstate their mask mandates early next week due to rising cases.