Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590016121154850816?s=20&t=p8ZAYru...
First Nevada in-person voting turnout.

Yeah. This is over.

Young people don't get up at 7 am for this.

[Devils30]

Basically the Dems need a big white college swing based on persuasion relative to 2021. We kind of knew this but its over if not.

[Devils30]

Dems might hold up better in white college areas, see NH and completely bomb in NV.

[Devils30]

I think I'm just going to go offline until, like 8 PM. The first hour or two of results is rarely helpful in figuring things out and honestly I'd rather be doing literally anything other than adding to my stress in that way.

I actually disagree.  Looking at county swings in the Indiana and Kentucky counties that will close soon can actually be informative for similar rural counties.  Like, I could tell in 2020 that Trump's margins were slightly down from 2016 in a lot of those counties.

Yeah, if Paul is like at 82% in Elliott you kind of know what's coming.

[Devils30]

Trump's favorables are at 37/60 per CNN.

Too low, but people are ready for a new face and both sides know it.

[Devils30]

Not enough IN or KY data in to even think about conclusions

[Devils30]

WOW!

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1590122298191024128?s=46&t=zDoxjo...

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1590122155580456961?s=46&t=zDoxjo...

Both numbers seem well off

[Devils30]

I was hoping for some clues from KY and IN but I assume these are mail ballots and really nothing is close to conclusive.

[Devils30]

Are these mail votes in Indiana?

[Devils30]

GOP is going to have an interesting majority with moderate Rs in NJ-7, several NY districts. McCarthy is going to have a fun time getting Kean, Molinaro, Fitzpatrick on the same page as MTG.

[Devils30]

I love the throwback coalition Fetterman used to win. It makes you wonder if after Trump the GOP will have as much WWC success as people think.

[Devils30]

Dems in MN need to try a mid decade redraw, it can counter the 3 seats we are going to lose in NC. In April we will win the WI Supreme Court and try for a 4-4. Also with the DiFiore retirement, try to get the Hochulmander back.

[Devils30]

Lets be honest, the AOC/NYC wing cost the Dems the House with the NY losses. The stupid bail reform law that never should have been passed totally f*** us over. We had this with just a little more money in these seats too.

Good news is the balance of power will be with the moderate Rs from LI, Hudson Valley, Central Jersey and suburban Philly. Don't expect the ridiculous antics with them. Good luck Kevin!

[Devils30]

Absolute Assad margins out of Montgomery County for our local hometown guy Shapiro. 69.0-29.6.

Did we win the state house?

[Devils30]

I find it difficult to believe there isn't some D leaning vote out there in Washoe. 126K is in now and about 190K voted there in 2018.

[Devils30]

220-215 off the top of my head looks most likely. It will be funny when they need to get Kean, Fitzpatrick, Molinaro on the same page as MTG.

[Devils30]

The entire GOP House majority is going to be from sleazeball Albany and Trenton politicians, not MAGA world.

[Devils30]

NC at R+3.7 you can argue actually trended 2% Dem from 2020. In an even to R+1 year it's R+4 or so instead of the R+6 in 2020.

[Devils30]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

[Devils30]

The AP and other networks should call this for Kelly. It is simply not close.

[Devils30]

What will the Dems 2024 House odds start at? I would say in the 60-65% range. They have so many swing district entrenched incumbents who will be tough to dislodge (with the exception of a seat or 2 that of course will flip anyway.

If Trump is on the ballot, the GOP is absolutely cooked in NY-3,4,17 and probably struggling in 19 and 22. Don't even get me started on NJ-7, PA-1, NE-2 and tons of other suburban seats in Cali (if we don't win them this year). These NY/NJ Rs cannot go MAGA without being completely fried in November 2024 and if they don't go MAGA, the base will hate them. Outside of winning the House with 219 or more, this is the best Dem scenario.

Yes, the GOP will get seats from the NC redraw, Dems need to counter in MN and WI (once they win the court in April). MN-1,8 and WI- 1,3 seem most likely to get more Dem.

[Devils30]

Wasserman has seen enough in AZ Senate

[Devils30]

What will the Dems 2024 House odds start at? I would say in the 60-65% range. They have so many swing district entrenched incumbents who will be tough to dislodge (with the exception of a seat or 2 that of course will flip anyway.

If Trump is on the ballot, the GOP is absolutely cooked in NY-3,4,17 and probably struggling in 19 and 22. Don't even get me started on NJ-7, PA-1, NE-2 and tons of other suburban seats in Cali (if we don't win them this year). These NY/NJ Rs cannot go MAGA without being completely fried in November 2024 and if they don't go MAGA, the base will hate them. Outside of winning the House with 219 or more, this is the best Dem scenario.

Yes, the GOP will get seats from the NC redraw, Dems need to counter in MN and WI (once they win the court in April). MN-1,8 and WI- 1,3 seem most likely to get more Dem.

Ohio will probably have a redraw too, but its also likely their will be an attempt to get a new redistricting process put on the ballot.

The first OH-1 version was Biden +2 and Landsman won by 5 in a Biden +8. Considering he'll be an incumbent, I got a strong feeling the GOP might just do a Cincinnati pack here and try to make Kaptur's seat redder.

[Devils30]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

Also NJ. Democrats may very well regret costing Malinowski his seat in redistricting.

Dems strategy should be simple:
NY: Go to the courts again, try to get the Hochulmander back without DiFiore
MN: Draw a 6-2 with MN-1 and 8 flipping blue
WI: Try to get a 4-4 redraw, at the very least they will get the state leg maps out (assuming they win the election in April)

[Devils30]

Is there anyone in the Republican caucus who seems more likely to switch to the Dems than Manchin seemed likely to switch to the GOP in 2021?

I can’t think of any. Fitzpatrick is probably the most moderate R left, and he didn’t even vote for impeachment. And I can’t imagine any of the newly elected Rs would flip - if they were inclined to, why wouldn’t they have done so before?

Fitzpatrick would definitely be the most likely. He voted with the Dems on guns and almost all of the GOP got wiped out of the legislature in the Philly burbs. The scrutiny MAGA would give him on every single vote might not be worth remaining in the GOP.