COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1478205885507727362

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths, Davison said.

“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.”

He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1479432438896017409

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The last few pages are seemingly an exercise in collective sociopathy and lack of any coherent idea part from rubbishing anyone who says that restrictions are still necessary, even if the evidence backs them up.

So I see we've reached the point where the zero COVID crowd just calls anyone who understands transmissibility and basic science a sociopath.

Waah! I don't want to wear a tiny bit of cloth on my face! Waah!

What offends me most about the mask requirements is that it disproportionately impacts people that are out trying to do their jobs, which are disproportionately the lowest-paid people in the country. Why should a waiter have to wear a mask while AOC gets to take hers off at the table? It's totally arbitrary, unless leftists just can't bear to let their servants breathe the same air as them.

AOC's actions aside, it's because we (the United States) refuse to either pay the price to deal definitively with COVID, or provide a sufficient social safety net that everyone people can pass on jobs like "wait staff during a pandemic". As for why people eating food need to take their masks off, I trust that you're able to figure that one out for yourself.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I will say that I’m of the mindset that cloth masks *don’t* do much against Omicron, and that expecting every American to wear an N95 in an indoor setting is untenable. There’s a lot of theater involved here.

That said, fine, sure, send every American a better mask than most have. It’s not going to solve the problem in the way mandatory COVID sick leave would, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't understand the recent push for N95 and KN95 masks. They are uncomfortable to wear, and I'm not sure if the benefits which they may confer outweigh the disadvantages inherent to them.

I agree they can be uncomfortable to wear, particularly it can be hard to breathe sometimes, but worn properly they address the main complaint about lower grade masks, that they don't protect the wearer. The filter also works in both directions so it will also dramatically cut transmission, assuming the mask doesn't have a valve like many sold in hardware stores. COVID will still spread when people gather in private and take off their masks, but if they are worn in a public space that public space should be safe.

Whatever delusion helps you sleep I guess.

The delusional ones are the people on this forum who are convinced that the pandemic is over and that COVID-19 is not a threat anymore, despite 1m cases a day and new record hospitalizations every day, blocking out the news or convincing themselves it's all fake. Imagine their shock and dismay when they receive N95 masks in the mail from the federal government, doubtless accompanied by a postcard encouraging continued social distancing and masking, a vivid undeniable reminder that in fact the pandemic is still raging and that they should be taking it seriously.

People are upset because they're vaccinated and don't want to be restricted anymore. I have no problem with restricting the unvaccinated, they could be treated like Vichy collaborationists we're in post-WW2 France and I wouldn't give a sh!t, but people who aren't derange morons and did the right thing shouldn't be punished because so many other people are mentally deficient pieces of trash who take things like QAnon, Joe Rogan and Alex Jones seriously and all the other conspiracy garbage these moronic mouthbreathers believe in.

You're close, but you're missing the key problem posed by the vaccinated (which is a microcosm of the problem posed by Republicans in general to society): they're our fellow human beings, and our fellow citizens. Yes, they're dangerously, aggressively, ignorantly wrong, but they're on our side (whether we want them or not). And it's bad for everyone to let COVID spread and multiply.

No matter why we have lots of COVID cases, they're a massive hit to society, both immediately (deaths, hospital capability saturated, the threat of healthcare system collapse) and over time (long COVID and other ongoing health effects, and the impact that the deaths will have on society for a generation or more). And the more COVID cases there are, the more copies of it are out there, mutating and evolving, and the more chances it has to produce a variant that is both highly infectious and highly deadly.

And that's before getting into how COVID vaccines and boosters provide resistance, not immunity. Sure, the properly vaccinated have better odds across the board, but that doesn't mean COVID's impact is insignificant.

I'm tired of the pandemic, too. But being tired of it and desperately wanting it to go away doesn't actually make it go away.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I will say that I’m of the mindset that cloth masks *don’t* do much against Omicron, and that expecting every American to wear an N95 in an indoor setting is untenable. There’s a lot of theater involved here.

That said, fine, sure, send every American a better mask than most have. It’s not going to solve the problem in the way mandatory COVID sick leave would, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't understand the recent push for N95 and KN95 masks. They are uncomfortable to wear, and I'm not sure if the benefits which they may confer outweigh the disadvantages inherent to them.

I agree they can be uncomfortable to wear, particularly it can be hard to breathe sometimes, but worn properly they address the main complaint about lower grade masks, that they don't protect the wearer. The filter also works in both directions so it will also dramatically cut transmission, assuming the mask doesn't have a valve like many sold in hardware stores. COVID will still spread when people gather in private and take off their masks, but if they are worn in a public space that public space should be safe.

Whatever delusion helps you sleep I guess.

The delusional ones are the people on this forum who are convinced that the pandemic is over and that COVID-19 is not a threat anymore, despite 1m cases a day and new record hospitalizations every day, blocking out the news or convincing themselves it's all fake. Imagine their shock and dismay when they receive N95 masks in the mail from the federal government, doubtless accompanied by a postcard encouraging continued social distancing and masking, a vivid undeniable reminder that in fact the pandemic is still raging and that they should be taking it seriously.

People are upset because they're vaccinated and don't want to be restricted anymore. I have no problem with restricting the unvaccinated, they could be treated like Vichy collaborationists we're in post-WW2 France and I wouldn't give a sh!t, but people who aren't derange morons and did the right thing shouldn't be punished because so many other people are mentally deficient pieces of trash who take things like QAnon, Joe Rogan and Alex Jones seriously and all the other conspiracy garbage these moronic mouthbreathers believe in.

You're close, but you're missing the key problem posed by the vaccinated (which is a microcosm of the problem posed by Republicans in general to society): they're our fellow human beings, and our fellow citizens. Yes, they're dangerously, aggressively, ignorantly wrong, but they're on our side (whether we want them or not). And it's bad for everyone to let COVID spread and multiply.

No matter why we have lots of COVID cases, they're a massive hit to society, both immediately (deaths, hospital capability saturated, the threat of healthcare system collapse) and over time (long COVID and other ongoing health effects, and the impact that the deaths will have on society for a generation or more). And the more COVID cases there are, the more copies of it are out there, mutating and evolving, and the more chances it has to produce a variant that is both highly infectious and highly deadly.

And that's before getting into how COVID vaccines and boosters provide resistance, not immunity. Sure, the properly vaccinated have better odds across the board, but that doesn't mean COVID's impact is insignificant.

I'm tired of the pandemic, too. But being tired of it and desperately wanting it to go away doesn't actually make it go away.

Stopping the spread of omicron is not possible.

Neither is stopping death, but that's not an argument for legalizing murder, removing traffic laws or eliminating the countless other things we do for both personal and public good. We can limit the number of COVID viruses replicating in human hosts. Every single omicron or other COVID virus that doesn't get a chance to replicate is a tiny win for the human race, and every one that does is a tiny loss.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/dabeard/status/1465873918183362563

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Jail sued for giving inmates ivermectin: "They used us as an experiment"

According to the lawsuit, as well as CBS News' previous interview with one of the inmates and plaintiffs, 30-year-old Edrick Floreal-Wooten, the jail's medical staff told inmates the ivermectin pills were "vitamins," "antibiotics," and/or "steroids."

"The truth, however, was that without knowing and voluntary consent, Plaintiffs ingested incredibly high doses of a drug that credible medical professionals, the FDA, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, all agree is not an effective treatment against COVID-19," the lawsuit says. 

"Mr. Wooten, however, received 48 mg over a period of four days," the lawsuit says, "3.4 times the approved dosage."

Dayman Blackburn says he faced a similar situation. His medical records, according to the lawsuit, show that he received nearly 6.3 times the approved dosage of ivermectin based on his height and weight.

People who take "inappropriately high doses" of the medication, according to the CDC, "may experience toxic effects," including nausea, vomiting, hallucinations, seizures, coma and death. Floreal-Wooten told CBS News he suffered from diarrhea and upper abdominal pain in the weeks after he was given the medication.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GlobalPHObserv/status/1482818647722795014

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

2700 deaths today. Very bad.

On the plus side we're now 2 weeks out from the probable peak in cases, so hopefully the deaths are peaking soon.

2800 deaths today and yesterday was revised to 3100 which is the most since last winter. Very bad.

I'm old enough to remember when 3000 people died so we changed our society, went to war in multiple countries, and spent trillions of dollars. Now, that many people are dting every day or two and people keep whining about how uncomfortable masks are and how they want things to go back to normal. Quite a difference.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There is no way to prevent them. Full stop.

This is completely false.  The only reason there are hundreds of death a day is that so many people are not vaccinated.

So there are really two choices: (a) pass a vaccine mandate with real teeth to it (i.e. get vaccinated or get sent to a labor camp in the ANWR; or (b) just accept that the people who are now dying are doing so of their own choice and stop concerning ourselves with them.

There really is not two choices because even if Biden came out tomorrow a tried to pass a vaccine mandate with real teeth most Republican states will not comply with it and the supreme court will most likely strike it down.

Sadly, I think we will just have to accept the fact that there will always be a sizable amount of people in this country who will never get vaccinated and nothing you or I say is ever going to change that.

The best thing we can do now is hope that there is not an even worse virus that will hit us a few years from now because if covid has taught us anything in the era of Facebook America and the world are no longer capable of eradicating a virus like they did with Polio

A significantly worse virus would result in an America that was thoroughly vaccinated, though at an even higher death toll than the hundred of thousands of Americans who have died already.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1485754820916965376

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1487450030847971332

Laura Ingraham (and Fox News) helped kill this man, and countless others. Words fail at conveying just how utterly, deeply vile America's political right has become.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

A couple thoughts after reading.

Johns Hopkins is a research university that encompasses a large number of schools and other facilities. The publisher of this study is the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, which operates under the Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, which includes the Johns Hopkins Hospital and Applied Physics Laboratory, among others that may be more familiar to the general public.

I am not personally familiar with the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, but I note that their "about" page includes "Related Links" to the Cato Institute, which is never an encouraging sign.


As noted in the paper, their standard for comparison is Sweden, which, while it did not engage in "lockdowns", did strongly encourage (and get) a significant response from the public (arguably with better actual compliance in nations with formal but sketchily-enforced lockdowns like much of the US), the effectiveness of which is still being debated.

The review also includes a single study from New Zealand, (and none from Taiwan, a rather glaring omission) which is read as concluding there was no effect from the New Zealand government's actions, which flies in the face of well-documented reality.

For anyone who wishes to review similar work from a medical perspective, I found (but have not yet read):

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis (Nov 2021)

Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis (Oct 2021)

Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 (Sept 2021)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Posting this essay from last May, because it's good and still relevant:
Novelty Means Severity: The Key To the Pandemic

If nobody has adaptive immune protection, a virus spreads faster. Even a few immune individuals in a population can meaningfully slow the rate of virus spread, since they are less likely to become infectious and infect others. If there are enough immune individuals, the virus may not be able to spread at all. This is the logic of population immunity and herd immunity. It is important. We talk about it a lot.

If nobody has adaptive immune protection, a virus causes severe disease in more of the people it infects. This is also important. We don't talk about it enough.

Unless we eradicate SARS-CoV-2—possible but not likely, especially in the short term—just about everyone is going to encounter the virus sooner or later. But those who have adaptive immunity from infection or vaccination may not get sick at all. Even if they do, they will be less likely to get very sick or die.

Now that we have safe, effective vaccines, we can give people immunity without causing dangerous disease. That puts us into a global race against the virus. The more people who see the vaccine before they see SARS-CoV-2, the fewer severe cases, long-term health problems, and deaths. Faster worldwide rollout will save lives. It really is that simple.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://deadline.com/2022/02/l-a-mayor-garcetti-says-he-held-his-breath-for-maskless-photo-with-magic-johnson-1234925457/

Garcetti says he "held his breath" while taking a maskless photo. How f**king dumb do these elitist Democrats think we are?

Republicans belong to a party led by Donald Trump, so it's seems quite reasonable to assume that they're dumb enough to believe this.

That said, this is inexcusable, and he ought to resign for both the blatant hypocrisy and following it up with insulting idiocy.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/MattNegrin/status/1491035650220773380

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1491485602407190537
This administration is breathtakingly incompetent.

The hypocrisy is so immense it really is funny.

I'm sorry, but Republican complaints about incompetence don't get to be taken seriously until the next century. Try again in 2101 (if your party hasn't died off or collapsed civilization by then).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

One more week of masking kids outdoors at school.

They are just absolute ghouls.

The Cruelty Is the Point: The Past, Present, and Future of the Left's America

Quite the bleak joke, coming from the party that wants education to be nothing but right-wing propaganda interspersed with active shooter drills.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm sure this will be no surprise to anyone here, but it's something to cite to those who ask "how do we REALLY know Ivermectin isn't effective against COVID?"

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1494716791951613960

One purely hypothetical suggestion I've seen is that Ivermectin is effective against parasites, and that parasites (via various synergistic effects) make COVID worse. In which case Ivermectin would generate better outcomes re: COVID infections... for people with parasites.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/JoePajak/status/1494670238578884614

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1503870082535112710

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1506344415161458691

(Note that these percentages appear to be among acute COVID cases, not all cases.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://news.delta.com/sites/default/files/2022-03/a4a_board_letter_to_president_biden.pdf

Several airline CEOs call for the mask mandate to be repealed. Do this and watch the number of angry passengers drop like a stone. It really is that simple.

Incidents of violent, unruly passengers was sharply rising well before covid, and there's no turning back that trend. Doubtful this would have any impact, these same people will find some other reason to pick fights on planes.

I think that the mask requirement does have some marginal affects in terms of unruly passengers, but I suspect that the main cause is the general increase of "unruly" behavior since early 2021 caused by various factors (covid closures, the ever increasing prevalence of social media, a generally more transient job market). I feel like drivers post covid are like 5 times more aggressive than pre covid (not to mention the increases in crime), and this general trend most definitely extends to airplane passengers regardless of mask requirements.

I've long been of the belief that the coronavirus pandemic has further exacerbated the mental health challenges which so many people face, and this is going to be one of the longest lasting consequences of the pandemic.

I suspect having the national government run by gaslighting, compulsively lying madman for four years would have done that with or without a pandemic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1511354802604814343