2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Skill and Chance]

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

[Skill and Chance]

There's more in Fulton too. NYT doesn't have the right numbers. Still about 190K ballots out given last update was about 10K.

Trump's lead just fell to 79K in Georgia.

If there really is more than 10% left in DeKalb, Clayton, Bibb, Chatham, Dougherty, and Muscogee, Biden should take the lead.

Hmmm... 2/3rds of that should be very doable for Biden.  GA is important to the narrative because Republicans control all of the offices that set and enforce the election rules, so if Biden wins there, the Dem rigging narrative collapses.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm guessing Michigan has Joe Biden/John James victories.

Nevada will come down to the wire but Biden should win.

Arizona is a tossup, no clue what's going on there.

Gut says Trump narrowly hangs on in Georgia.

If Arizona isn't a sure thing, we need Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is looking substantially better for Biden after the latest non-Philly/Pittsburgh mail ballot update. 

Increasingly think Trump is going to take AZ and NV, so Biden really needs PA. 

GA is a lot better for Biden than it looks.  Think of Fairfax reporting last in all the close 2010's VA elections.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we're going to end up with this.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow Biden only has Clinton's margin in the PV now.  And while that will go up a bit, CA actually gets better for Trump with each update.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Meme map. What would even be the consensus here if Democrats win Georgia and the rust belt, but lose AZ/NV?

Polling notoriously misses on Hispanic voters.  This time it missed a dramatic surge for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Your shades make no sense.

I did err on CO/NM, where Biden has majorities.

[Skill and Chance]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Look at everything Trump has done by executive order. Biden can undo it. Plus Fauci and Wray won't be fired. Plus we'll be respected in the world again. Also probably don't have to worry about a possible war with Iran.

Also if Breyer dies or needs to retire the Republicans can't fill the seat and make it 7-2.

Should Breyer still plan to retire next summer?  Probably the one chance to get a left-of-center pick through the senate is in Biden's 1st year.

[Skill and Chance]

All counties in Georgia are still counting absentee votes that came in the mail yesterday, in addition to the numbers that have been quoted on what was left to count.  So far Biden is winning absentee updates in very Republican counties.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

I think there's only 117K requested absentees total that are still out statewide and could potentially be mailed back with an 11/3 postmark.  If that is true, Trump's lead is almost completely safe.

The R challenger is leading the D incumbent for Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court by just 4K statewide right now, so that will likely flip with the late absentees.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden's lead in Michigan is over 1% and growing rapidly.  MI is going to end up out of recount/legal dispute range.

[Skill and Chance]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

[Skill and Chance]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad

That's a lot!

Basically translates as Mitch is gonna put Biden in chastity and also make him watch the 6-3 SC do its thing.  

Why are you people so obsessed with the Supreme Court? Didn’t we see plenty of times already (e.g. Bostock v. Clayton County) that justices like Gorsuch are not some stupid conservative hacks? Biden can do A LOT as president and that includes reversing almost all of Trump’s policies. That’s simply a fact.

SCOTUS is a big deal, but I think a lot of people missed that the pivot point in terms of radical changes to the law is one justice further to the right.

[Skill and Chance]

So apparently the last GA update was just the Chatham County (Savannah) absentees.  That means the 60K+ Fulton absentees and several thousand from DeKalb and Cobb are still out!

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

[Skill and Chance]

Did the military vote swing D?
The margins in VA Beach, El Paso County, and Bell County are more Dem leaning than 2016.

Quite likely.  Also Lexington, VA (Virginia Military Institute) and Brazos, TX (Texas A&M) swung hard to Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

GA Update: Trump's margin down to 47,000.

What reported?

[Skill and Chance]

If that update was the Fulton absentees, Trump wins.  If the Fulton absentees are still out, Biden wins.  

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

Yes, Georgia flipping in a Dem <5 environment is impressive for Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

#'s still look good for Biden in GA, but at this point it's really just all gravy (assuming PA flips.)  All GA does at this point is lull the winning side into a false sense of complacency about it going into 2022/24; the results there are essentially going to be a tie. 

GA is important because all of the officials involved in setting the rules for the election there are Republicans.  If Biden wins GA, that plainly defeats the rigging claim.  

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/richardfausset/status/1324362210777456643?s=21

That should be sufficient for Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

What reported in Georgia?

[Skill and Chance]

In NJ all ED votes are considered provisional and not counted until 11/10 so they can verify those people did not already vote by mail.  NJ is likely a blue mirage right now, although there's no doubt Biden still wins it.