2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DrScholl]

The first thing Biden needs to do as president is impose sanctions on the R*ssia. I don't care for what or why, just impose sanctions.

Sh*t like this (spending so much time and energy on being outraged by Trump's personality and stuff like Russiagate than on putting forward an alternative vision for the country) is one reason for why your party is seeing these disappointing results.

Number one, the President of the United States cannot be unhinged with a horrible temper. Second, Russia has deliberately interfered in our affairs and that is a matter of national security. Only the extreme right and the extreme left have any love for Russia.

[DrScholl]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I think Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are seeing a shift in coalitions that Democrats can build on and still win them moving forward. They are realigning in a way that would put them in the a similar category as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

[DrScholl]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Ohio has fewer educated suburban areas and more working class areas that are rapidly declining economically. Plus it's rural areas are quite a bit like Indiana's in terms of Republican numbers.

[DrScholl]

Georgia...

Trump: 49.9
Biden: 49.0


I want to believe...I want to believe...

You got to believe!

[DrScholl]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this and have often thought that many Trump voters are apathetic types who simply voted for him because they perceive his message to be straight to the point and telling it like is.

[DrScholl]

Looking at the house races, AZ-7 is at 86% reporting and AZ-9 is at 85% reporting. AZ-6 is at 84% reporting, while the reddest districts are 88% and up in reporting. Trump probably doesn't have a whole lot of room to gain a huge amount.

[DrScholl]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2012 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

[DrScholl]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2008 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

That actually occurred in 2012.

I don't know why I put 2008. I just rewatched that whole scene a few days ago.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324185613394956288

A 3 point swing is terrific?

When you consider that Biden only needed to topple Trump's plurality of 44,000 votes it is very terrific. Reducing the margin in red areas was a critical part of Biden winning this race.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

What a nutjob

Yeah, Gosar is one of the more nuts people in Congress, as in I think he might actually have mental issues (not simply that he has crazy positions and says insane things, which he also does).

His siblings have cut ads for his opponents in two cycles. That tells you a lot about what kind of person he is.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1324170928599797762?s=20

Welp. I finally agree with Hannity on something, maybe this will start a movement to finally get rid of the Electoral College.

And in other news... Kanye West has conceded the election. Smh

Not sure why he has a problem with it since it's the only thing that even gives Trump a chance at maintaining the presidency.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324228834598801410

The biggest shifts weren't by region, race, age, or any of that.  It was education.  The GOP is quickly turning into the party of dummies.

And this is precisely why we got the result that we did. You wonder why Trump's supporters are so dead set against Democrats now? It's this kind of condescension that only intensifies their loyalty to him and to Republicans.

I wouldn't have put it the way that poster did, but the GOP has taken a n increasingly hostile attitude toward education. If a person is educated they are considered elitist. With that said the GOP would of course want to build a base made up of low information people, because those people are easier to get votes from by using over the top rhetoric and outright lies.

[DrScholl]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

Isn't the rest of Fulton mostly black anyway? I really don't know now that I think about it, I feel like whenever we talk about Fulton it's always ATL lol

The old Milton County portion is mostly white (Alpharetta, Roswell, Sandy Springs). South Fulton outside of Atlanta is mostly black.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

Of course Biden is favored to win, he's literally stealing the election now.

Don't be sill.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1324336957661523968?s=19

This is absolute dangerous non-sense.  They are counting votes.  Why don't Republicans want votes to be counted?

Because if all the votes are counted they will lose.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1324347100096856066

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1324345726613229568?s=19

What? Is he gonna open another casino?

He's announcing that he's doing his own residency at Caesar's Palace. Look out, Celine Dion because Donald Trump is about to upstage you.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

Ok. One, all you Doom sayers or haters have been wrong on a lot of things. Second, elecorates change, new voter registration is until December 7th for Georgia to vote in that election. The narrative is different and Ossoff with Warnock (who is running against an unpopular Senator) could drive turnout. At least having the chance, no where did I say he would win but at least get the chance. But please go doom say somewhere else, you guys are super annoying.

I hope both the democrats lose. I want divided government.

If that happens Biden won't even be able to appoint a cabinet. McConnell has already signaled that he's not going to approve anyone Biden puts forward unless they are conservative.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

Ok. One, all you Doom sayers or haters have been wrong on a lot of things. Second, elecorates change, new voter registration is until December 7th for Georgia to vote in that election. The narrative is different and Ossoff with Warnock (who is running against an unpopular Senator) could drive turnout. At least having the chance, no where did I say he would win but at least get the chance. But please go doom say somewhere else, you guys are super annoying.

I hope both the democrats lose. I want divided government.

If that happens Biden won't even be able to appoint a cabinet. McConnell has already signaled that he's not going to approve anyone Biden puts forward unless they are conservative.

Compromise or die.

You mean die like over 230k people have from COVID?

[DrScholl]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because he bet money and doesn't want to lose it.

[DrScholl]

Biden extended his lead in Nevada from 8,000 votes to 12,000 votes on the latest update.

[DrScholl]

Nevada jumped from 73c to 88c on PredictIt.

Don't tell that Tender.

NV is ok.

Biden should just lose one of GA or AZ by 100 votes or so ...

No he absolutely should not you lucre-addled hobgoblin.

Never heard of that insult before, but it sounds good. I might need to borrow it some time.

[DrScholl]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Loosing 70-30

She actually tweeted a pretty gracious concession and congratulated Mfume.

I would not call this gracious lol

https://twitter.com/kimKBaltimore/status/1323845115958493185

It’s quite gracious by Republican standards

That fact that he didn't say she lost because of fraud is definitely gracious for a Republican.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

Good to know! Thanks!!!

WOW!  The fraud is coincidentally all in the battleground states Trump lost.  Can't believe it.

Democrat run states.

North Carolina has a Democratic Secretary of State.

[DrScholl]

If Biden wins Georgia. Stacy Abrams needs to be the chair of the DNC cause whatever she doing she's doing it right.

Lol

She lost her own election and hasnt done anything of note since. Biden won Georgia because Trump is a lemming. They're going to lose both senate seats in a moth or so anyways.

She built up the infrastructure that made it possible for Biden to even compete in the state.