Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

True if you include by water, but by land while Michigan went from Trump in 2016, in last 30 years its only voted GOP once.  Generally of the border states, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota are only ones that vote GOP most of the time.  Now interestingly enough if you go by county, most border counties go GOP, but then most are rural too.

[mileslunn]

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

Yes SW Ontario a bit "Michigan"-like but a far larger share of the population of Ontario lives in the GTHA.  Ontario is more comparable to New York State or maybe Illinois than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in terms of urbanization, diversity and politics.  Not to mention NYS is also super-rust belty outside its dominant metro area.

Largely true, only difference is downstate Illinois is on northern edge of Bible belt so GOP tends to run up the margins more there than Tories do anywhere in Ontario.  Lots of over 70% GOP counties in Illinois while in Ontario Tories rarely crack 60% anywhere even in their strongest ridings and in most elections number over 50% tends to be in single digits.  Upstate New York more like that as GOP competitive there but not blowouts.  On other hand New York City alone is 42% of state's population whereas Toronto is only 20% (if you take just 416).  Only Staten Island is somewhat 905ish, other four boroughs more 416ish.  905 is more akin to Long Island and Westchester County although interestingly enough GOP gets in upper 40s on Long Island but low 30s for Westchester County.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin actually in urban vs. rural split are closer to that of Manitoba and same in diversity and Tories usually get in 40s in Manitoba not 30s like Ontario (although with how bad they are doing now could be worse, but just saying generally speaking).  Biggest difference is those states have population densities more in line with Southern Ontario than Southern Manitoba (Southern Ontario is actually just as dense, province as whole only much less as Northern Ontario quite sparsely populated).

[mileslunn]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

And SW Ontario still has a populist streak that has turned on its ancestral Liberal past in the last couple of decades.

Also at both federal and provincial level, most past Liberal MPs/MPPs from Southwestern Ontario tended to come from right of party and were usually socially conservative.  You had people like Paul Steckle, Roger Gallaway, and Rose Marie Ur and I somehow doubt types like those would be allowed to run in today's Liberals.  Liberals though have compensated for this by winning in upper middle class suburbs which were once solidly Tory.  Ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton were not too long ago safe Conservative ridings but now fairly safe Liberal and only go Tory in good elections not most like used to.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if people think winning next election in Canada is maybe a poison pill in sense that a lot of tough but unpopular decisions will have to be made.  I don't see how we can get our deficit under control without either tax hikes and/or spending cuts and if government doesn't take action, probably multiple credit downgrades.  Likewise with inflation rising, its not a matter of if, but when interest rates rise and that is not just bad news on deficit front, also bad news for many individuals as personal debt very high in Canada.  Likewise high housing prices is a tough one.  Let them continue to rise and risk angering millennials who are upset they cannot afford a home by 30 unlike previous generations or take action and anger boomers who rely heavily on home as asset to fund retirement and angry rug pulled out under.  So I think these issues have a real chance of making whomever wins struggle in 2025.  At same time Liberals who probably win have advantage Tories in such a rut and likely won't learn and NDP too many see as a non-realistic alternative.  Also possible government could surprise us and handle it well too.  Any thoughts here?

[mileslunn]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

I think pollsters are hesitant to "make numbers up", so they just use the census. Turnout estimates are available from Elections Canada by age and gender, so pollsters can use that if they want, but not every elections agency provides that, and you're relying on the assumption that the turnout by age group is going to be the same for the next election.

It does though usually mean NDP and Greens tend to underperform, Tories overperform polls while Liberals and BQ (support is pretty even across age groups) get close to predictions.  Could also for provincial elections mean Ford, Kenney, and Pallister might not be in quite as bad a shape as polls say.  Don't get me wrong, all three could lose, Kenney most likely followed by Pallister while Ford probably in best shape of three.  But point being all three do better amongst older than younger voters.  Ontario also tougher in that while OLP support even across age groups, ONDP skews heavily younger so if an OLP-PCPO race might be bad news for Ford while if an ONDP-PCPO race I think Ford is probably the favourite there.  Howarth can win still, but she will need to bring millennials out in big numbers to do so.  Otherwise if she can have millennial turnout like Trudeau did in 2015, then I think she can win, but if like it normally is, then no Ford wins.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if people think winning next election in Canada is maybe a poison pill in sense that a lot of tough but unpopular decisions will have to be made.  I don't see how we can get our deficit under control without either tax hikes and/or spending cuts and if government doesn't take action, probably multiple credit downgrades.  Likewise with inflation rising, its not a matter of if, but when interest rates rise and that is not just bad news on deficit front, also bad news for many individuals as personal debt very high in Canada.  Likewise high housing prices is a tough one.  Let them continue to rise and risk angering millennials who are upset they cannot afford a home by 30 unlike previous generations or take action and anger boomers who rely heavily on home as asset to fund retirement and angry rug pulled out under.  So I think these issues have a real chance of making whomever wins struggle in 2025.  At same time Liberals who probably win have advantage Tories in such a rut and likely won't learn and NDP too many see as a non-realistic alternative.  Also possible government could surprise us and handle it well too.  Any thoughts here?

I think you have a point. There's a reason Trudeau is clearly angling for a fall election, 2021 is very likely going to be the peak of his post-honeymoon popularity and he knows it.

Although as things stand it's very hard to see a CPC government emerging this fall, realistically the choice is LPC majority vs minority. Even if the CPC wins a plurality, if LPC+NDP>170, the NDP has nothing to gain from taking down the Grits.

My hunch is that if the Liberals have to settle for another minority, the next few years will get real difficult for them. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, if the Liberals can't win a majority with these circumstances, they have a real problem. Being beholden to NDP/BQ kingmakers will only tie Trudeau's hands further.

Absolutely, I think Liberals for 2025 need to hope Tories continue to keep choosing unelectable leaders (and good chance they do) and too many are uncomfortable with NDP winning.  With large deficit, unless growth ends up being much stronger than anticipated, tough choices will have to be made.  Very few spending cuts are popular.  For tax hikes, only popular ones are wealth tax, raising income tax for top earners, and corporate tax hike.  And problem for all three is none raise a whole lot of revenue.  First two due to fact we don't have a lot of wealthy and they can just re-arrange their financial affairs to lower taxable income/wealth means amount of revenue raised likely to be smaller than estimated.  Off course this ignores other option if too high some may just move elsewhere, especially as most in this group can work remotely.  Final one does actually have potential to raise a fair bit of revenue, but corporations are highly mobile so can move elsewhere although if Biden succeeds in raising corporate rates, may give our government some room to raise them, but not by too much. 

Bigger problem there is corporate tax revenue is highly volatile.  It tends to be highest during booms when government least needs revenue while lowest during recessions when most need it (during recessions most corporations pay no tax as most aren't profitable therefore cannot be taxed).  So in summary if they go the tax hike route, likely have to do something very unpopular.  My guess is raise GST and while not a bad idea economically, likely costs them the 2025 election if done.  Unlike other taxes, GST hikes do raise a lot of revenue and most economists tend to like them.  Never mind when compared to OECD, our income and corporate rates are on the high side whereas our sales tax is on low side, but I am not sure average voter really cares about that.  Economists may, but average voter probably not.

Other is spending cuts, but again a lot of big ticket items not popular.  Cutting transfer payments like 90s I don't think would work as health care costs rising rapidly with age so I suspect political costs would be much higher if that is done again.  Cutting military is one and that actually might be the easiest politically.  But could strain relations with allies since of NATO countries, Canada already has one of the lowest military spending levels.  There is OAS off course, but that is a political no go as seniors huge voting bloc and mess around with them pay a price.  While either raising retirement age or lowering maximum income to claim OAS would be wise, not sure either would go over well with voters.  For first might only be feasible if far enough in future in which case not going to help now.  Beyond those three, cannot think of any more big spending ticket items they can cut.

Now other option is pray we have growth like we've never seen before.  If we can have 3-4% growth per year over next decade, then no need for tax hikes or spending cuts.  But I think chances of that are slim to none.  Finally inflation could be a problem if it persists.  Possible just happening due to timeframe as a year ago many things were shutdown whereas now with vaccines we are seeing inflation more as a result of things re-opening so once everyone is vaccinated and everything re-open, it will fall back to 2%.  But if it doesn't means interest rate hikes at some point likely and that could be problematic as consumer debt record high.  Would though help lower housing prices so good for millennials who struggle to afford them, but could anger many boomers who use their home as main asset to fund retirement so won't be happy to see values fall even if they are over inflated.  And on this front, maybe decide to have primary residential tax for sales, but I think any politician who tries this, can kiss the 905 and Lower Mainland goodbye.  Even if they let you deduct mortgage interest like US does to soften blow, I don't see this going over well.  Ironically most OECD countries tax sale of primary residences, Canada and UK are amongst the few that do not.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

Ignoring some small countries where every party calls itself socialist or social democratic or whatever (IIRC that’s the case in Guyana, Nepal, etc), Chile’s constituent assembly elections saw the right get about 20% of the vote.

Very few do.  Now off course these are just polls not election results.  I do believe between 1995-2000 there were some polls in UK that had Tories in low 20s even though 30.7% was the lowest they ever got, that being in 1997.  But still does show if these pan out in general election, you are seeing a big shift left.  Whether permanent or temporary blip due to pandemic hard to say.

[mileslunn]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

NDP at record heights ? Meaning...above the 30% they received in 2011?  Also the NDP polled in the high 30s in the late 1980s under Broadbent and going into the 2015 election.

No far from it, but closest NDP has been to Tories in a while.  Yes right after Layton died, again when Mulcair became leader and from Alberta 2015 election until around Labour Day, NDP was in lead.  But it is record lows for Tories.  I think only time combined right this bad was right after merger but before sponsorship scandal when Martin in his honeymoon and other time was from about 1990-1993 when Mulroney became super unpopular.

[mileslunn]

Usually when the NDP polls well, it's at the expense of the Liberals. It will be much harder for the NDP to pick up a lot of seats at the expense of the Tories. The Tories possibly dropping to third would be truly bizarre. You have to go back to Ontario 1990 for a parallel.

Even if Tories got fewer votes than NDP, would probably still get more seats as their support is more concentrated.  Its interesting that looking through 2019 results, they could plunge to low 20s and still get around 80 seats.  Problem is they would be irrelevant in large swaths of country so very tough to come back in 2025. 

Still NDP could gain some Tory seats in BC as while true unlike 90s, very few NDP-Tory switchers, you do have many NDP-Tory races and Liberal vote plays kingmaker in that if they fall, it depends on which side they break for and if rise, at whose expense. 

[mileslunn]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

I would say largely true.  Other wild card is BQ as realistically Liberals gaining more than 20 seats outside Quebec is a long shot.  Not impossible but not easy so if BQ say gets 45-50 seats then majority becomes very difficult and basically relies on NDP underperforming and Tories remaining at their rock bottom numbers.

While polls can change, I have a tough time envisioning Tories denying them a majority.  Only way I could see that being remotely feasible is if a fourth wave hits before election called so Trudeau postpones it and election gets held in 2022 or 2023.

[mileslunn]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

I would say largely true.  Other wild card is BQ as realistically Liberals gaining more than 20 seats outside Quebec is a long shot.  Not impossible but not easy so if BQ say gets 45-50 seats then majority becomes very difficult and basically relies on NDP underperforming and Tories remaining at their rock bottom numbers.

While polls can change, I have a tough time envisioning Tories denying them a majority.  Only way I could see that being remotely feasible is if a fourth wave hits before election called so Trudeau postpones it and election gets held in 2022 or 2023.

And BQ's trajectory is even harder to predict. Minority governments often force the Bloc to work with the government of the day, and we saw in the Harper minorities this greatly hurt their appeal to disgruntled Quebecers. Blanchet has been much more successful than Duceppe in adapting the Bloc to a more "Quebec interests" position than "Quebec grievances"

Quebec just in general is unpredictable.  Quebecers are known for massive swings towards one party often mid way through a campaign.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-more-canadians-believe-ndps-singh-would-make-a-better-pm-than-tories/ .  Seems to say what Nanos is showing otherwise no one likes O'Toole.  This sort of reminds me of 2008 for Liberals where pre-campaign Tories and Liberals were close but Dion's personal #'s in basement or 2014 Ontario where PCs lead many pre-election polls but Hudak's #'s in basement.  While perceptions can change, if best PM numbers hold, its likely NDP gains while Tories fall even further.  I doubt Tories get fewer seats than NDP, but fewer votes certainly a possibility.

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

Ford perhaps, but Mulroney has been pretty good on this and her father still well liked in Quebec.  Agree Ford is not popular with Francophones but not sure how much his mistakes have rubbed off on others.  Unlike say Lecce, Mulroney has largely stayed out of trouble.

[mileslunn]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

A good Joe Clark retread would be a young, moderate, and relatively obscure politician. This makes it hard to predict but if we're throwing out names, maybe Eric Duncan? He's pretty obscure (only really known for being openly gay which could be a huge asset in shedding the bigot image), he's in his 30s, and a moderate on social issues.

If we're keeping with the Joe Clark theme, how colossally bad is he at managing crucial confidence votes?

He could have had a majority if he got the 6 Social Credit MPs to form a coalition with him and with only 2 seats in Quebec, that might have been a smart move.

[mileslunn]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/poll-stephen-harper-would-change-this-election/ar-AAMs6UV?ocid=msedgntp which is interesting.  On one hand Trudeau still wins, but does seem Harper does better than O'Toole and at least gets party back to what it got in 2015 and close to 2019.  That has both good and bad news for Tories:

Bad news is they need to change to win again, Harper model doesn't work.

Good news is fact party does better suggests O'Toole has reason to believe party numbers will rise once campaign starts and he becomes more known so while still uphill battle to win outright, at least might not do as poorly as polls suggest now.

[mileslunn]

The hypothetical Harper poll by Innovative is interesting, but probably not very helpful. It's almost like the "Generic Democrat/Republican" polls in the states (not exactly because people know Harper, but still, it's much easier to support a hypothetical than in reality).

Harper nostalgia may rally the CPC vote and get them back to that 30% base, but for progressives (who are the majority in Canada), he represents the kind of politics they don't want to return to. If soft NDP and Bloc supporters rally around the Liberals, a slight increase in Tory turnout won't mean squat.

Nostalgia is one hell of a drug. Like any recreational drug, it's fun for the moment but can do serious damage on the long run. The Conservative movement is still stuck in his shadow, if they bring him back it will be even harder to modernize and fit the context of 2020s Canada.

Agreed, I think most Canadians want to move beyond Harper and yes he can rally base, but I don't think he can win a general election as you mention.  That being said Tories always have problem in sense more Canadians lean left than right and getting right splits never easy.  But at least someone more moderate helps although still may not be enough.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos has this one: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/As-Election-Fever-Builds-Liberal-Majority-in-Doubt .  Interesting how close Alberta is, but on other hand Tories seem on high side in BC.   If this played out would be close, but still perhaps a majority, but not a lot of room for error.

[mileslunn]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/07/27/trudeau-says-ottawa-withholding-millions-of-dollars-from-nb-over-abortion-access.html

Raising the abortion issue right before an election is never a bad move for the LPC

Absolutely, although it does bring question is this an actual CHA violation or just politics.  Canada Health Act is extremely vague which is one thing I dislike about it so violations are largely subjective on who is in power.  Obviously I am fully for a woman's right to choose.  And agree abortion fearmongering always a great way.

At same time I do wonder why people still think there is a significant risk.  Harper was in power for almost a decade and never touched it so I personally think chances of abortion ever being re-criminalized in Canada is pretty close to zero, which is a good thing.  But yes smart politics.  Its why on CHA, I wish they had the dispute resolution mechanism that Paul Martin proposed a decade and a half ago but never implemented which is three members would independently review violation and make a decision.  One appointed by province, one by feds, and other jointly agreed so takes politics out of enforcement of CHA.  But then again CHA is largely more a political tool

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

[mileslunn]

Could also be a dead cat bounce for Tories.  They were at record lows and even the slight improvement, numbers are still not great, just not as bad. 

[mileslunn]

This is a pretty stunning statement:

Here is a mildly shocking implication of our recent polling . If these numbers hold up it may explain why Pierre Poilievre is vigorously campaigning . And Erin O'Toole. There are literally no safe CPC seats in Ontario right now . #1993

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1425281814625718282

"Literally no safe CPC seats" seems like a bit of a stretch, there's no amount of scumbaggery that could lead the Tories to lose seats like Renfrew-Nipissing or Elgin-Middlesex. But if the election goes right for the Liberals and badly for the Tories, there's a world where both O'Toole and Poilievre are looking for a new job by the end of September.

I could easily see Tories falling below 30 seats and maybe even 25 seats if things go really badly, but I would be shocked if they got under 20 seats in Ontario.  Only way that happens is if PPC starts getting around 10% in polls which I don't see happening.

[mileslunn]

New Abacus: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

I wanted to pinpoint the Quebec numbers in particular. If the main anti-LPC parties in Quebec (BQ and Tories) split like that (poll suggests 22-19), the Liberals will win a good number of seats there without really having to increase their numbers all that much. A simple Tooclosetocall input of those numbers gives the LPC 45 seats in Quebec, 10 more than they won in 2019 and 5 more than 2015.

A bit skeptical of Quebec numbers, but Quebec doesn't tend to make up its mind until about 2 weeks before the election and wild swings not uncommon there.  Ontario more interesting as while you can swing a lot of seats with a relatively small shift, its unusual for a party to rise or fall more than 10 points during a campaign.  2015 perhaps exception where Liberals rose quite a bit there although Tory vote was pretty flat in Ontario whole campaign and most of shift was from NDP to Liberals.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts on the parties are as follows:

Liberals: Definitely in the driver's seat but still would only take a slight uptick to win a landslide majority of over 200 seats while only a slight drop to struggle to hold the 157 they have (note biggest drop in Tory support is Prairies so Tory vote is probably not as inefficient as was in 2019).  That being said, short of a monumental mess up or one opposition leader really catching in, they should win most seats.  Real question is will it be a majority or minority.  I think majority is narrowly favoured, but wouldn't be shocked if they fall a bit short either. 

Conservatives: Right now in very bad shape and most likely election will be a defensive one.  Pandemic has been devastating for parties on right as moderates who they need to win over tend to support vaccinations, vaccine passports, and public health restrictions, while much of their right flank opposes them so have to look over both shoulders.  Go right and fail to win key swing votes they need.  Go closer to centre and risk PPC or Maverick Party gaining and splitting votes.  Still Tories do tend to outperform polls is one saving grace, but usually only 2-3 points so not nearly enough to get them anywhere near power.  Perhaps one thing that could cheer them up is Harper going into 2006 election had similar numbers, but you also had a 13 year incumbent rocked by major scandal, not 6 year one who people seem okay with thus I think shifts like you saw in 2006 are very unlikely. 

NDP: Singh has very high personal numbers so definitely has potential for NDP surge.  Still repeating 1990 election in Ontario, 2015 in Alberta, 2011 federally, or 2018 in Ontario will be tough.  To make matters worse, NDP vote heavily skews towards millennials who generally don't vote in same numbers as older voters do.  That being said Singh's personal popularity does bode well if Trudeau slips up and more importantly lead amongst millennials suggests long term party has potential to do quite well. 

Bloc Quebecois: Down a bit from last election, but Quebec tends to be quite volatile and usually we don't know which way they will go until about 2 weeks before election so I could see them either gaining or losing seats.

Green Party: With all the infighting, they are pretty much toast.  They will be lucky if they can hold onto a single seat.  Their best option would be immediate leadership change but might be too late.  BQ back in 2017 was in similar crisis and things looked bleak but recovered through leadership change, but Greens lack time for that.

PPC/Maverick Party: I suspect both win 0 seats and underperform.  Most of their rabid supporters hate Trudeau with a passion so when push comes to shove, I expect most to end up voting Conservative in end (although won't be nearly enough for Tories to win).