Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

Right, so I assume Quilchena is wealthier?

Yes and also older.  Mostly boomers while Point Grey has more rentals, but also a lot more millennials and Gen Xers.  Boomers remember 90s quite well so tend to have a strong reluctance to vote NDP while millennials don't but at same time most likely negatively impacted by high cost of living that happened under BC Liberals.

[mileslunn]

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

This post is from a little back, but it reminds me quite a lot of the predicament the Labour Party is in here. How sensible are the Canadian Tories right now?

Not very, they are in same trouble Labour party is.  In fact two parties have a lot in common in terms of losing even if different in ideology.

[mileslunn]

For Canada UK comparisons, I would say following:

Tories: Canadian Tories are more or less like British Tories but don't always line up.  In 80s Mulroney was a lot more cautious than Thatcher and more like your Kenneth Clarke type.  On other hand at provincial level later you had Mike Harris, Ralph Klein and to lesser extent Gordon Campbell who were quite Thatcherite.  Atlantic Canada and Quebec being 1/3 of country meant electing someone like Thatcher never feasible as Atlantic Canada like Celtic fringe in UK, while Quebec more like continental Europe on role of government.  On the other hand Harper was more right wing than David Cameron as while both similar on fiscal issues, on social issues they diverged, i.e. Cameron introduced gay marriage while Harper fought it tooth and nail.  Best comparison to Johnson is probably Ford brothers in Ontario.  Both buffoonish, but have a populist appeal and tend to underperform in upper middle class areas but do better than Tories normally do in working class areas.  Scheer would be akin to Michael Howard while O'Toole similar to William Hague.

Liberals: Generally like Liberal Democrats but Trudeau would probably be Labour if in UK, similar to Miliband and Starmer but not as left wing as Corbyn.  Martin/Chretien more like LibDems, New Labour or even some Wets but definitely wouldn't fit in today's Labour.  Trudeau leans same way as Labour but a bit more cautious and big on left wing rhetoric but less on action.  Loves to play class warfare like Labour while Chretien/Martin never went into that territory, but hasn't proposed anything crazy like nationalizing any major industry and on more programs, tends to prefer tailored ones to buy off certain groups as opposed to massive expansion of welfare state.

NDP: They are like Labour and you have some like Notley or Horgan who would be soft left kind of like Andy Burnham or Sadiq Khan while Singh is more on left although not quite as radical as Corbyn, but to left of Starmer.  Best example of Corbyn is Niki Ashton.  Generally NDP where they can win is more moderate while more radical when they don't expect to win.  If a right wing party vs. NDP battle, they will be moderate to try and win over several federal Liberal voters (see Notley and Horgan) while if squeezed out by Liberals than more radical to differentiate themselves. 

BQ: Is most like SNP and while officially centre-left they attract people across spectrum who either favour Quebec separation or greater autonomy.

Greens: Same as Greens in UK although our Greens tend to be less radical than most Greens in Europe.  They are similar to Greens in Baden-Wurttemberg who are in government but fairly moderate, not like Dutch or Danish Greens who are quite radical.

[mileslunn]

My understanding is that the Reform Party took the western base?

That's basically it.

So what were the PCs like?

Depends on the era. Roughly, I'd break it down as such:


1993-2003: The Dead Tory Era. 1993 was a humiliation, winning only two seats. They had a bit of a dead cat bounce in 1997, but it was clear that the writing was on the wall. In 2003, a young Nova Scotian named Peter MacKay became the PC leader on a promise of NOT merging with the Canadian Alliance (Reform Party rebrand), a promise he promptly broke. And like that, the Progressive Party of Canada was dead.

2004-present: Ideological Tory era.  Since then Tories have a strong base largely rooted in West but also strong in rural Ontario and generally have a hard floor of 30%.  But unlike old PCs, have far fewer who have them as second choice meaning while stronger base ability to win means pretty much winning over every person open to voting Tory which is not easy.  Also unlike past era much more ideological although party careful not to go too right, but more because of fear of electoral consequences not principles like old PCs.  More than anything membership is very much from Reform side and is more interested in ideological purity than winning.

[mileslunn]

Avi Lewis' decision is strange, but he does live in the riding. I worry that it may be some sort of grift campaign, and I hope the party doesn't throw any money at the riding. The only way the party wins it is if there is some sort of 25-25-25-25 split.

Avi's father (Stephen) is dying at the moment, so this may just be a campaign to honour his father, I guess?

No way he wins riding.  While Sunshine Coast and Squamish are somewhat NDP friendly, West Vancouver is the wealthiest municipality in Canada so it is Liberal and Conservative with NDP being pretty much irrelevant there.  Whistler is more Liberal/Greens as yes young and progressive, but many staff there are not even citizens (lots of Aussies) while many who own property there are your wealthy liberal types. 

I think Burnaby North-Seymour might be a better choice.  Still an uphill battle, but at least might have a fighting chance never mind Conservatives were unusually low there as candidate disqualified last time so since that is not likely to happen again, I expect Conservatives to get higher than 19% and probably more likely to come at expense of Liberals than NDP.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet poll for Ontario:

PCs  33%
NDP  28%
Liberals  27%
Greens  6%

City of Toronto

Liberals  33%
NDP  32%
PCs  24%

905

PCs  35%
Liberals  29%
NDP  22%

https://qc125.com/proj/2021-05-19-ms-on.pdf

I somehow suspect anti-Ford voters will coalesce behind either Liberals or NDP just a question of which one.  For PCs if they stay at 33% they are toast and even if win a plurality of seats, its majority or bust.  At same time with last month probably being worst month for Ford in past 18 months, party still has time to recover so while a PC majority looked likely in February while unlikely now, its not impossible if there is a strong recovery, but its not either most likely outcome.

Of provincial governments, I would say Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario are all in jeopardy of re-election but in Manitoba and Ontario close enough PCs could still rebound while in Alberta UCP in more dire straits.  Legault looks pretty safe.  Atlantic premiers all look good for now although with fiscal mess in Newfoundland, not sure I would want to be premier there now.  Horgan and Moe also look good but election is far enough away things can change although in case of Moe, I think NDP has major structural problems that will make winning tough whereas for BC Liberals a lot depends on how Horgan manages recovery and who they chose as leader.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos poll:

Liberals  38%
Conservatives  29%
NDP  21%
BQ  6%
Greens  5%

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/liberals-in-drivers-seat-over-conservatives-as-vaccination-rollout-hits-its-stride?fbclid=IwAR3FwLl-iIYq5n1bOuoA48OhLqii6r9vart7MqAiB6uhvzUv9rTKUKt9Tl8

Most interesting is Alberta where the Tories are at 36%, the NDP at 30% and Liberals at 24% - which is very difficult to believe.

Alberta seems all over the place.  Kenney is super unpopular and fact he endorsed O'Toole may be having same spillover.  At same time Trudeau is not well liked there and for NDP maybe some confusion with provincial.  Rachel Notley is fairly popular, but Singh much less so as Notley is more pragmatic and she is still pro-energy unlike Singh. 

[mileslunn]

Canadians have really shifted left in their political outlook.  Not only have the Liberals tacked leftward, but there's been no leakage to the Conservatives by so-called Blue Liberals.  Nor has this leftward shift really impacted the NDP voting base.  And while the Conservative base is increasingly "non-metropolitan" you haven't really seen a working class embrace of rightwing populism at at all, certainly much less than in the US and Europe.

Any reason why Canada shifting left and nowhere else is?  While makes some sense due to pandemic, seems unusual never mind most countries are 50/50 split on left/right while Canada is anything but so definitely a global anomaly.  I've posited that this century Canada will replace Nordic Countries as hub for social democracy and definitely signs heading that way.

[mileslunn]

What would Canadian politics look like with a "British" party system (i.e. NDP as Labour, Liberals as Lib-Dems)?  We got a sense of that in 2011 - but Canada is much less conservative now (and Harper was just too much of an ideologue to hold the "free enterprise coalition" together).

Incidentally, Erin O'Toole says he's following the Boris Johnson model.

 

For sure, I have suggested elsewhere Canada may be the most left wing country in developed world.  Wasn't historically thus why our welfare state is not as large as many in Europe as that takes time so is a lag indicator never mind much easier to create new programs back in 50s and 60s when you had higher growth rates and younger population.  Nonetheless philosophically, it seems Canada tilts overwhelming to left and interested and bit puzzled why here and not elsewhere?

Yes we are pretty urban, but there are others like Australia which are more urbanized while UK and US not that far off us.  We are fairly diverse but not only one there.  On education, that we do tend to do somewhat better than most.  Other could be culture as Canadians seem to outside Prairies have higher deference to authority than most Western countries do so that works in favour of left.  Could just be phase too, but I think current shift left has a much greater chance of being a permanent re-alignment than Harper's win in 2011 was.

[mileslunn]

Atlantic Canada is another factor, it's Canada's "celtic fringe" like Scotland/Wales/Cornwall in the UK. Atlantic Canada isn't strictly "left wing", however. The Liberals out east are quite a bit more right-wing than the LPC, and the their PCs are quite a bit more left-wing than the CPC. On balance, Atlantic Canadians are centrists who prefer the Liberals federally who are more likely to pour money into their struggling communities.

O'Toole seems like a good fit for Atlantic Canada (populist economics, defense of Anglo-Canadian "traditions", military background etc.) but doesn't seem to be catching on. 

I think problem is Prairie base is quite toxic there and as long as they play a big role in the party, it will be tough to breakthrough there.  I think if Kenney as I have predicted loses in 2023 and Notley beats combined right, that might be catalyst to force party to ditch more right wing elements realizing it doesn't sell anywhere in Canada.

[mileslunn]

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek MP Bob Bratina is retiring and has broken with the federal government on LRT construction.

https://www.thespec.com/opinion/editorials/2021/05/19/liberal-mp-bob-bratina-sticks-to-his-guns-on-lrt.html

There are three open seats in Hamilton with Bratina, Scott Duvall (NDP, Hamilton-Mountain) and David Sweet (Conservative, Flamborough-Glanbrook) retiring.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Hamilton Mountain interesting to see if they stay with current parties or flip to NDP/Liberal (opposite of what held now).  In theory if Tories were at 40% in Ontario and perfect three way split, could win both, but almost zero chance of that happening.  Flamborough-Glanbrook is becoming more suburban so I expect Liberals will flip it, but suburban parts go Liberal, rural parts go Tory.  Tories could hold it if they did better in Ontario, but based on how things are going now, I think Liberals are clearly the favourites to win it.

[mileslunn]

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

[mileslunn]

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.

I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  

What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 

[mileslunn]

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.

I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  

What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 

Municipalities don't have a Constitution that's part of the federal Constitution.

True, but could make municipal bylaw as that is what Sault Ste. Marie did in 1990.  But at same time I think backlash to that would be much stronger as many would see it as anti-immigrant too.

[mileslunn]

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.

I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  

What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 

Municipalities don't have a Constitution that's part of the federal Constitution.

True, but could make municipal bylaw as that is what Sault Ste. Marie did in 1990.  But at same time I think backlash to that would be much stronger as many would see it as anti-immigrant too.

It was thinkfulyl stuck down by courts and a non far right mayor apologized in 2010 for that disgusting piece of bigotry.

Absolutely and if done it would probably be somewhere in rural Alberta.  The same place where you lots of anti-lockdown, anti-mask types and many who think individuals should be able to own assault weapons and thought Trump was a good president.  While a small portion of Canada, such communities do exist although very much a minority.

[mileslunn]

BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec have all released re-opening plans.  Wondering what thoughts are on those.  BC seems pretty generous.  Alberta a bit slower on phase 1, but moves to lift all restrictions by July 1st while BC not until Labour Day.  Ontario is probably most cautious, but not surprising as it seems people there are just in general more risk averse. 

My thinking is governments are in a tough spot here.  Covid fatigue is getting strong and so cannot stay in lockdown indefinitely, but at same time as we've seen multiple times, if we re-open too soon, it just comes roaring back.  And polls do seem to suggest those wanting more restrictions and go slow are greater than those who want quicker re-opening and fewer restrictions.  At same time, from my observations, it seems a lot are ignoring rules but obviously big age gap with people in 20s I find least likely to follow while seniors most careful (makes sense, former has very low risk of dying, latter much higher although most in latter are vaccinated while many in former are not). 

If all goes well, should help the premiers and those who went too slow will face pressure to speed up.  But if a fourth wave comes, you will see backlash and probably fatal for Kenney, Ford, and Pallister (all three are on thin ice now, but fourth wave probably finishes them off), while for Horgan puts him in negative territory but can still recover.  Early on, it was easy to unite people, but as this drags on, I think you are seeing more divisions between those who want life to go back to normal and those who want to keep restrictions until place until safe.

[mileslunn]

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.

Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 

[mileslunn]

Will Amos' first embarrassment one could say was an embarrassing mistake, but twice in such a short period seems fishy.  Besides why would someone urinate in a cup and specifically in a zoom meeting.  That being said probably best for him to step aside from his role as don't know if just two bad mistakes together or something else.

As for next Tory PM, I think if O'Toole loses as likely, Lewis is probably favourite as you win leadership by pandering to base not median voter and often types who win leadership races are types least electable in a general election.  Poilievre if he runs another possible.  He is a good pit bull and good at taking down other side, but I think his nastiness would be a turn off especially to female voters.  Never mind on economic policy he is very much a Thatcherite and not sure there is much appetite for that type of policy right now.  Peter MacKay probably runs again, but only way I see him winning nomination is if he signs up a lot of new members.  I think his chances are better if Liberals become very unpopular as more opportunity to sign up people outside base.  Most outside base may have some things they disagree with Trudeau on, but aren't absolutely determined to see him defeated.  Jason Kenney may run and even if he loses in Alberta, he may still go although I think his position in Alberta has made him damaged goods.  Obviously he has little appeal to moderates while base is angry he didn't take approach like DeSantis or Abbott of Texas and just re-open fully irrespective of cases. 

I also think long term if Tories keep on electing crazy leaders, not totally impossible federal parties start to mirror BC where Liberals become more a pro free enterprise but socially liberal party and NDP becomes a broad based progressive one so progressive liberals go over to NDP, but moderate Tories go over to Liberals.  But that would take at least a decade or more to happen.  If you are an NDP member this would be good as could win sometimes while if a pro free market type also good as your side while under a different label would win more often than they do now.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Liberals moving rightward for a very long time, I am more thinking in a decade if Tories implode, but not sure that will happen.  As for next Tory PM, that is a big problem as Harper never really groomed a successor and despite his success left party in a terrible mess that they are a long ways from coming out of.  He could have tried to move party closer to centre and marginalize base and if successful that would establish party more moderate, but instead played triangulation.  Avoided going too far right on big issues, but pandered to base on small issues thus keeping them in tent and feeling like they could get their way.  And most leaders don't have skill like he did to triangulate thus not a long term success strategy. 

Also I think social media has been a killer for Tories.  More go into echo chambers so a lot in base today are more right wing than they were a decade ago.  In US, they have a long history of radical politics so its worked out okay to some degree.  In Europe they use PR so you have separate parties for centre-right and further right and a lot of the further right have been able to appeal to blue collar types who are populist but don't care for traditional establishment conservatives thus why it is left in trouble there and right gaining.  If Canada had PR, I imagine PPC would be closer to 10% maybe even higher and they would take all the more ideological right wing types while Tories would be moderate and although probably sub 30, the combined right would be higher than it is now.

I actually think if Notley beats Kenney in 2023 straight up (no split on right) that might send a strong signal party has to moderate since if cannot win in most conservative (or probably 2nd now, Saskatchewan probably takes that title), then cannot win nationally like that.  Now if Kenney loses due to split on right, then probably emboldens them to move further right.  And same in Ontario in sense that if New Blue Party gets enough votes in enough seats to deny Ford a majority, that could push party further right. 

[mileslunn]

Notice a lot on right trying to centre their argument around freedom, but I am not sure that is a wise strategy going forward for Tories.  Off course who doesn't want more freedom.  Problem is when you get into the details, what a lot are pushing for is libertarianism and many see that as just I want to be selfish and don't care about greater good.  Reason I think this fails is I don't think most Canadians feel we have too little freedom as by and large we are a fairly free country and while we may have some restrictions that some may find silly or overbearing, on balance its not like government plays too big a role in our lives.

Some examples are:

- End lockdowns - Most don't like lockdowns but see them as necessary to bring pandemic under control

- Opposition to gun control - After seeing what a disaster 2nd amendment is in US, most don't associate ability to own firearms with freedom and accept restrictions on lethal weapons including banning some not useful for hunting as perfectly legitimate.

- Opposition to any taxes - No one likes paying taxes, but most of us like the services they provide and realize without taxes we wouldn't have those.  Off course some may say they are too high and certainly most rightly get upset when they see it being wasted

- Obsession on free speech - Most Canadians don't feel free speech is threatened and while some may not support C-10, a lot see right going on about free speech really about promoting right to hate speech which most oppose.  Yes there is always risk it gets abused and used to shut down unpopular opinions that are controversial but not hateful, but so far that has not happened and most aren't too worried about it.

Reality is I think those on right going on about freedom is a losing proposition as most don't feel we have too little freedom and few even if they dislike Trudeau feel he is trying to repress freedom or become more authoritarian.  People generally vote for politicians who will do things to improve people's lives so talk on freedom only resonates if people few we have too little.  In US works more as you have a lot more who believe in dark web conspiracy theories never mind US has a strong libertarian current which Canada lacks.  I don't think the libertarian version of freedom has ever had much traction in Canada while in US a sizeable minority of Americans are libertarians.  I think concerns of freedom are more abroad in places like China or Russia and many others which do actually repress freedom and how Canada approaches our relationship with those countries. 

Thoughts here?

[mileslunn]

Newfoundland brought down its budget https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-budget-2021-main-1.6046843 and surprisingly few spending cuts and looks like most of the changes were the easiest and least controversial.  Tax hikes only on those making over 135K and for those making over a million, will be highest in country (how many in Newfoundland anyways make that much?  I presume most making that income live in BC, AB, ON, or QC) so on one hand good news that won't drag down Trudeau, but much like with Alberta, a lot will depend on strong oil rebound.  I do think though while taxing rich is popular, being highest in country is just a good way to see more move to other provinces.  Ontario and BC maybe could get away with it, but most studies I've seen show raising taxes on rich at provincial level largely ineffective.  Federal more effective as harder to move abroad than to another province.  Also raised tobacco taxes and sugary drinks while spending will not go down but some board consolidation.  Will be interesting if this works as Newfoundland in worst shape of provinces so if any province needs austerity its Newfoundland.  So if they can recover without big cuts, not reason federal government or other provinces who are in much better shape need to.  Tax hikes are drop in the buckets and it most will make only a very small dent.  Sale of Nalcor and NL Liquor being studied but not done now so see what happens there.

[mileslunn]

No one "needs austerity"

If Newfoundland can get a federal bail out then they won't, but if not I am afraid so.  Bond holders no longer want to lend to them and since it is a province without its own currency, they don't have option of printing money like federal government can.  Off course fact it was pretty light on austerity and nothing too jaw dropping is probably good news for Trudeau for two reasons:

1.  A harsh austerity budget could have put some Newfoundland seats in jeopardy, that is avoided

2.  O'Toole could have pointed to that and said re-electing Trudeau will mean the same nationally (won't actually as federal government a long ways from insolvency but still average voter doesn't know this) and only voting Tory can prevent Canada from reaching that whereas now O'Toole won't have that card.

[mileslunn]

Other big news is 215 bodies discovered in unmarked graves from Kamloops residential school.  While First Nation's issues sadly don't get a lot of attention, this definitely is big news and shows just how much needs to be done here.  Also probably a shock too many as while most knew residential schools were bad, I don't think many realized just how many died in them.  Be interesting if with this shocking news, what plans are of various governments and more importantly will this become a bigger issue or will like usual it be old news by election day.  One would hope former, but sadly probably the latter.

[mileslunn]

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

Yeah, I find the tenor of posts here (mostly mileslunn's, I guess) incongruous with the fact that, last I checked, the Conservative Party won the most votes at the last federal election.

They won popular vote, but their vote very inefficient, largely due to running up margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Never mind that was pre-pandemic and pandemic changed a lot.  While I wouldn't say Tories dead, certainly still at 30% in polls, I do think their support amongst millennials should make them worried.  Yes old saying is people get more conservative as they age, but that is greatly exaggerated.  Lets remember most boomers remember old PCs thus many believe party will eventually return to roots and willing to come back then.  Most millennials only remember Tories led by more ideological leaders thus see Tories same way boomers see NDP, too ideological and won't even consider even if leader moderate. 

NDP faces this issue with boomers and in BC couldn't even win popular vote and most seats in 2017 despite 16 years of BC Liberals while in Ontario fear of another Rae government kept many away.  Off course possible Gen Z or generations after will be more conservative.  In many European countries, right is strongest amongst younger voters and its older voters favouring left so always possible in 30 years you see reverse of now with Tories strong amongst younger voters and weak amongst older (today's millennials).

Not saying Tories won't ever win again, but I think its a decade away before returning power.  I think base is becoming even more right wing as more going to right wing echo chambers thus in order to win nomination you have to be well to right of median voter.  A moderate type who could win general election like Jean Charest or Michael Chong would never win nomination thus problem for party.  Yes you can flip flop like O'Toole but that just angers both sides it seems.

[mileslunn]

And true Liberals do have issue of fighting a two front war thus naturally being closest to median voter serves them well, but as we saw in Ontario and federally in 2011 also problematic if they get squeezed out.  Still I think NDP's hope Liberals go way Liberal Democrats do seems unlikely.  Liberal Democrats I don't think were as flexible as Liberals in Canada in moving with the winds.  Federal Liberals tend to swing left or right depending on mood.  More left leaning in 60s and 70s while more right leaning in 90s and now more left leaning.  Also today's progressives unlike in past tend to be reasonably well off as opposed to blue collar types so that helps Liberals.  It seems in Canada much like US, left does better in more upper middle class areas than blue collar, sort of opposite of how things were traditionally.  Part of reason Labour is struggling so much in UK, is they are a bridge too far to breakthrough into upper middle class college educated areas unlike Liberals or Democrats.

There is also question for Tories, do they try to be upper middle class party like PCs were under Mulroney or more blue collar type like Trump and many right wing populist in Europe are.  In countries with PR, generally you have a centre-right that appeals to former and more populist right appeals to latter.  I think former doable if Liberals drift too far left.  Generally as rule of thumb people won't vote anyone who raises their taxes and if Liberals decide to start targeting top 10% instead of just top 1% for tax hikes that might create an opening as top 1% too small to win an election, but top 10% make up a key part of Liberal base.  Latter has worked well elsewhere but might be harder in Canada as a lot of the working class are in large urban areas that vote left as opposed to smaller communities where there is more of a market for this.  Still latter may allow Tories to gain in Northern Ontario and could help in ridings like Niagara Centre.  Essentially, former regains ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton while latter gains Niagara Centre.  Challenge is type of policy that appeals to both, I am not sure that will be easy.

Boris Johnson united both as Corbyn was so far left that was easy to do, but if Labour had a more moderate leader, not sure he would have done as well.  Still probably won, but not by as big a margin.  For Trump it worked in 2016, but backfired in 2020 as while held the gains from 2016, lost many traditional Republican suburbs in 2020 thus risk there.