Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

I would say October 19th week is most likely as that way all rookies from 2015 qualify for pensions.  Only thing I think that prevents a fall election is a new variant emerges that evades vaccines in which case they will hold off until everyone has their booster shots.  That is going to be the big race with COVID-19 is vaccines keeping up with variants.  So far they are working reasonably well but as virus mutates very real chance one emerges that evades it.  More likely arises in developing countries where vaccines are being rolled out much slower.

[mileslunn]

I think pensions will play a role as most in politics know the pre-election polls don't always turn out that way and while Liberals may be in good shape to gain seats; there have been more than enough instances throughout history at both provincial and federal level where final results have turned out much differently than anticipated.  Even in terms of safe Liberal seats, there are actually very few ridings that Liberals always win, most if they implode bad enough could be lost; just a question of which direction.  Off course agreed that any riding they won by more than 20 points in 2019 they are probably likely to hold, but many would just rather be safe than sorry.  At least if they wait until October 19th, guaranteed their pensions vs. just highly likely to get it.  At same time I suspect age may have some factor as MPs in their 50s are probably thinking about retirement whereas those in 30s its so far in the future that probably less of a concern.

[mileslunn]

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.

Also too much of an ideologue.  Most past PC leaders came from PC side of merger or were at least acceptable to both like Klein.  Kenney is first from Reform/Alliance and generally people from that wing don't win anywhere in Canada.  Alberta voted Reform due to Western Alienation, not because most were as right wing as them.  Never mind that was a quarter of a century ago and province has changed a lot since.

Harper was the exception to this rule as he was a lot more strategic and patient than Kenney and had his eye on the long game.  Very few as conservative as him are like that.  I've found many like this are more about picking fights with their opponents which just angers people and less about governing.  Never mind Harper towards end lost his patience and started acting more like Kenney and lost in big part because of that.  I think for Red Tories since they generally agree with the way Canada operates and its more over details and wanting to be somewhat more conservative, not radical change; they are about governing and willing to work with others and don't have same nasty streak Reform wing does.

A lot from Reform wing are quite bitter as they basically hate everything about modern Canada and rather than strategically trying to move things in their direction, its more about settling scores with other side and owning the left.  That might work in US where country is split almost down middle and is deeply polarized, but not in Canada which is much less polarized and people tend to have an aversion to extremes and division.

Real challenge for NDP is to be moderate and make sure the more radical elements are kept under wraps since if they make too much noise that could sink Notley.  Notley in first term did a good job controlling them and being moderate but some now are frustrated and want a bold left wing platform rather than recognizing Albertans want to get rid of Kenney and be somewhat more progressive, but not a sharp turn left.  Despite stereotype, Alberta by and large is a fairly centrist province and Notley is closer to middle than Kenney thus why ahead.  There is little appetite for an AOC or Corbyn led government in Alberta.  Radical candidates is what sunk Howarth in 2018.  Now Notley to be fair at least has record in government so that somewhat blunts that risk.

[mileslunn]

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?

Basically they define "Left Liberals" as people who believe that...
- government spending should be based on public need, not ability to afford
- the main role of government is to create opportunity, not redistribute wealth
- the profit motive brings out the worst in human nature

Left Liberals are basically tied in the "listen to experts vs rely on common sense" dichotomy, which I question a bit, but the other definitions check out.

These voters apparently go 20% to the CPC and NDP each. I don't see much "Conservative values" in those tenets, but people do weird things. I've met people with decidedly left-wing opinions support CPC, and people with decidedly right-wing opinions support one of the progressive parties. Makes no sense, but people's voting habits are never strictly ideological.

Or all this could be wrong, it's just one poll after all, and this "voter cluster" thing is a new thing. But it's interesting all the same. Maybe one day we'll get a detailed "political tribes" analysis like they have in the UK...

I suspect a lot of the left wing types voting Conservative are probably in Alberta and Saskatchewan and do so more over regionalism than ideology.  Tories federally tend to do about 10 points better in Alberta than they do provincially so while that wouldn't explain all them, I imagine many who voted for Notley provincially but then Harper 2015 and Scheer 2019 would fall into this category. 

I see a lot more on right vote for progressive parties but usually they are moderate right and claim Tories too far right even if their views are every bit as right wing as Tories.  Generally opposition to Tories especially when in not in power is able to paint them is being far more extreme than really are.  It also doesn't help with social media that the most extreme elements in party tend to be nosiest while the more moderate types tend to a be a lot quieter so someone who doesn't follow politics may think this.

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.

[mileslunn]

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.

Erin O'Toole's attempt to appeal to this constituency (which he says is modelled on Boris Johnson) hasn't really seemed to gone anywhere.

Places like Niagara Region or Sault Ste. Marie would be a lot more "Trumpy" if they were in the US.  Not that O'Toole is comparable to Trump, but shows that conservative views a minority among WWC in Ontario rust belt. 

All anecdotal, but I think a lot may not care for woke PC ideas but as a culture that values politeness we tend to go along with it.  On other hand I think class is a bigger issue in Canada than US despite fact gap between rich and poor much smaller.  Most polls show concerns about income inequality much higher in Canada than US.  Perhaps because of how bad it is in US, many fear if right wins it will become like that eventually while Europe is a whole ocean away so less of an issue.  Still you are seeing some shifts but not as dramatic as elsewhere.

Essex, Oshawa, and Brantford-Brant are all Conservative held ridings and 30 years ago those were ridings they never won even in good election much less held in bad one.  Niagara Centre and Sault Ste. Marie maybe haven't flipped Tory, but Tory support in those two is usually close to Ontario overall numbers whereas 30 years ago it was usually 10-20 points below Ontario overall numbers.

You could say same in BC as NDP won several seats in BC Interior in 1991 and 1996 election while in 2020 fared rather poorly despite overall landslide.  Places like Kamloops, Prince George, Cariboo, and East Kootenays used to be places NDP was competitive in provincially while now all safe BC Liberal/federal Tory ridings.  However on Vancouver Island in WWC areas like North Island-Powell River you have not seen a similar swing to right like you have in Interior.

[mileslunn]

Agree there's been a rightward shift among WWC in Ontario rust belt and BC interior.  Van Island has been largely immune as it's culturally very "Left Coast."

Which is interesting as Olympic Peninsula in Washington state has swung right but its more resource based while Vancouver Island has many retirees, small alternative businesses, large civil service in Victoria so more diversified.

[mileslunn]

Angus-Reid out with quarterly premier approval ratings  https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-june2021/ .  Most looking good but Ford, Kenney, and Pallister in bad shape.  All three have negative approval ratings unlike other 6 premiers polled (PEI not included) but at same time not necessarily fatal.  None are yet at Wynne like levels while for premiers with similarly low ratings, it is a mixed bag.  Rachel Notley, Philippe Couillard, and Brian Gallant lost with such numbers but Christy Clark came within one seat of a majority while Jean Charest and Dalton McGuinty got re-elected with ratings that low so it is possible to win at that low if opponent is lousy enough.  Off course these are snapshots and undoubtedly will change between now and election day.  If they rebound, then re-elected, if fall further then toast.

Also gives vote intention for each province so see below

BC: Horgan has massive lead but with BC Liberals leaderless, I expect that to tighten and election is still more than 3 years away so lots can happen.  Nonetheless he is in a good spot and BC Liberals have a huge hole to climb out of.

Alberta: Notley like other polls is ahead by 11 points so looks in good shape to win at moment, but Wildrose Independence party at 20% showing Kenney is not just bleeding on centrist flank, but also right flank.  This is very similar to Mainstreet so 2015 all over again with more favouring parties on right than left but right split.  Real question is will this hold or will fear of another NDP government be enough to get Wildrose voters to swing back to UCP?

Saskatchewan: Moe has massive lead as usual so nothing new here.

Manitoba: NDP slightly ahead like other polls but despite a real bad month, PCs still competitive.  At same time PC vote tends to be quite inefficient as they run up margins in rural areas so probably need a 5 point lead to be sure of win seat wise.  But still over 2 years left so time to move in either direction.

Ontario: Ford has a 4 point lead and at 37% and that is within MOE of other polls 33-37%, but NDP on high side and Liberals on low side.  Like others, only a slight rebound needed to win a majority and in fact at 37% that might be enough there.  But at same time unlike last year, he is vulnerable and a lot will depend if progressives coalesce around one party or split.  It does seem though Howarth more popular than Del Duca by same token you have some Blue Liberals in 905 who are fine voting Liberal, but if an NDP-PC race, will go PC like in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially.

Quebec: Legault has a big lead so short of a monumental blunder, he should likely waltz to a landslide.

New Brunswick: Higgs is slightly ahead but with strong linguistic divide and fact he lost popular vote by 6 points but still won most seats in 2018 means probably enough for a majority but a lot can change in next 3 years.  Actually NB numbers suggest very little has changed since election last September.

Nova Scotia: Liberals have an 8 point lead which is decent, but not insurmountable.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Results almost identical to last election which is no surprise.  Still with an election 4 years away and lots of tough choices I suspect things will change but exactly how remains to be seen.

[mileslunn]

Greens seem to be not doing too well although she is pretty left wing, but Liberals under Trudeau have moved more to left so little difference between three major parties on left.

[mileslunn]

Also probably helps secure seat for Liberals as only way Tories could win here is strong split on left.  The Tories will dominate rural polls, but Fredericton where most live won't vote for them.

[mileslunn]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

[mileslunn]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.

True, but also gap between Liberals and NDP & Greens is much smaller.  In some ways PCs in 90s had same issue as Liberals moved right.  Still quite interesting how Canada is moving left when most countries are moving right.  Granted its more your cultural conservatism gaining elsewhere as opposed to economic conservatism.  That being said there is a strong argument Tories would do better if they reached out to Blue Liberals or Red Tories or have we reached a point where middle is hollowed out and its 2/3 on left, 1/3 on right?

[mileslunn]

How would Rona Ambrose have fared?  She seems to be the great hope for the Conservatives.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/imagine-a-conservative-party-led-by-rona-ambrose-where-would-it-be-now/

I think Canada has moved enough left that there are few in Tories who could win today.  As for elsewhere, not sure shift has been as pronounced.  Even on economic policy,. Reagan/Thatcher era may be over, but not sure concerns about income inequality are as acute as in Canada.  In part I think living next to US which is more right wing than most may be what is pushing us more to left.

[mileslunn]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

[mileslunn]

Hahahahahahaha

Bernier has gone off deep end and Tories should be thankful they dodged the bullet there.  As lousy as Scheer was, Bernier would have decimated the party and made winning in next decade near impossible.  I think O'Toole for all his troubles now would have done better than Scheer in 2019 although with less favourable circumstances now probably wins fewer seats.  Chong and Raitt probably best choices but I think with Chong good chance of another split but at least would have set party up better long term.

He clearly loves being provocative and with his party irrelevant its a way to stay in the news but my guess is PPC does even worse next election.  I think Maverick party is probably one that does best for dissatisfied right wingers but still stays in low single digits although probably cracks double digits in some rural Prairie ridings.

[mileslunn]

I think with Canada problem for Tories is Canadians are mostly left leaning across board.  Not hard left, but centre-left.  On economics, balanced budgets aren't as big a priority as they were in past and I suspect that won't change until interest rates go up.  In terms of government role in economy, people don't favour centrally planned economy or massive nationalization, but I think there is a strong feeling free market system leaves too many behind so a more activist government has more support than in past.

On taxes, in past taxes tend to rise or fall uniformly, not go down for lower brackets and up for top brackets (that is a relatively recent thing) so lower taxes in past was more popular than now as parties on left tend to not raise lower and middle incomes, just top incomes.  Sure there is competitiveness and strong argument Canada's top brackets make us uncompetitive, but until Brain Drain hits really high levels I don't think too many care about that.  Never mind in 90s, top bracket affected anyone in top 10% whereas now only top 1%.  In Europe, many countries that have cut top rates in past decade have been those where it kicks in at a fairly low rate thus impacts many voters rather than just a few.  Even in US, Trump's top rate tax cuts only benefitted rich in red states with low taxes; it actually raised taxes on rich in high taxed blue states like California and New York due to SALT cap.  Never mind income inequality ever since Occupy Wall Street has been a huge issue in Canada and many across spectrum concerned about. 

On cultural conservatism, as mentioned sells well in Quebec, but in English Canada doesn't have resonance as elsewhere.  Europe wasn't built on immigration like Canada was thus why it works well there but struggles here.  US may be built on immigration like Canada, but many go back a lot further in terms of generations.  Only 20% of Americans have a foreign born parent while in Canada it is 40% while only 1/3 of Americans have a foreign born Grandparent while in Canada it is 60%.  More importantly most Americans with foreign born parents are non-white whereas in Canada even most whites have at least one foreign born Grandparent so talk of anti-immigration is tougher sell as many think back to their own family.  In Quebec by contrast most are descendants from settlers in 1600s and 1700s thus why works better there than elsewhere in Canada.

[mileslunn]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

Probably, but not sure that works.  I have asked this elsewhere, but would others agree that Canada is now one of the most left wing if not the most left wing countries on earth.  Sure Trudeau is only slightly left of centre, but how many other countries on earth does left have over 70% support and right sub 30%?  I don't think Canada is more left wing than much of Europe was in 70s, we are definitely more conservative than that, but I mean in present as we are swinging left while most other countries (not all though) are swinging right.

[mileslunn]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

They only lost by a dozen points and they have a star candidate. I'd certainly call it winnable, especially if they can squash the Greens.

I suppose it could be winnable. What's fascinating has been the collapse of the Tory vote in the last couple of elections there. I think the NDP can improve maybe 5-10 points (star candidate+Green collapse), but I think it will also require some of those red Tories to return home and stop voting Liberal. I don't necessarily see that happening.

Even provincially its changed as PCs used to sweep most of the riding whereas now PCs dominate the suburban and rural parts, but the St. John's proper parts now go NDP/Liberal.  Actually if last few elections showed anything, if Tories do win seats in Newfoundland in future, it will probably be in rural parts not St. John's ridings as seems the urban/rural split like rest of country starting to happen in Newfoundland too.  Yes Liberals still dominate rural parts, but Tories do better in rural than urban unlike in past while NDP largely non-existent in rural parts.

[mileslunn]

Uppal says after the Liberals beat the Conservatives at the polls, he spent considerably more time talking to Canadians outside the partisan political bubble.

He says it was through these conversations that he came to understand how the niqab policy and other pronouncements during the election campaign alienated Muslim Canadians and contributed to the growing problem of Islamophobia in Canada.

"When it came to these policies, I should have used my seat at the table to push against divisiveness that promoted the notion of the other," he said in the Facebook post. "I regret not being a stronger voice and sincerely apologize for my role."

Many have parents, grandparents, aunts, and uncles who blazed the trail for them in Canada because they believed it would provide their families with a safer and prosperous future, Uppal said.

"The Canada that they believed in was one that held, in its core, the belief that your race, your religion, your gender, or your sexuality would be accepted here," he wrote.

"It is up to us all to make Canada a better place."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservative-mp-tim-uppal-sorry-for-role-in-divisiveness-of-harper-era-policies-1.5469581

Smart idea.  I think further party gets away from Harper the better.  Even though he has been out of office for almost six years, he is still quite radioactive and loathed by Canadians.  His image unlike Mulroney has not improved with time.  Mulroney and Trudeau sr, were even more unpopular when defeated but over time rehabilitated.  I think obviously this is a right step and no doubt party needs to push the more bigoted elements out.  Challenge is while most Conservatives are not bigots, most bigots vote Conservative and if that vote splits off and goes to one of the other right wing parties like PPC or Maverick Party could hurt them.  Still its right thing to do irrespective of political ramifications.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1404519078014984206?s=20

Possibly the Tories' best pickup opportunity, who knows.

20 years ago, this was a Liberal leaning riding, even stayed Liberal in 1997, but today probably one of the most favourable ridings in Atlantic Canada for Tories so while wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold it, if Tories make any gains in Atlantic Canada, even if as few as 7 seats, this would probably be one of them.  In 2004, won 7 seats and lost this by 20 points.  Today if Tories win 7 seats in Atlantic Canada, pretty sure this would be one of them.  I am guessing Liberals did well in past over sectarian reasons as predominately English speaking but Catholic, whereas now being one of the most rural and socially conservative, things have changed.  In 2004, Tories won both St. John's ridings while those are amongst some of the worst today in Atlantic Canada.  They could win 25 seats there and would probably still lose those two.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/GlobalNational/status/1404550007013793792Here's another.  Greens did well here in 2019, and if they weren't in such a state this might have been a great target.

Exactly and also with Greens in a mess kills any chances of Tories picking up seat as with Greens stronger it would create splits possible for Tories to come up middle, but that is not happening.  Still even then, I think this is a place that might vote for Red Tories, but no way will it vote for present day Tories.  Even Dennis King who is very popular wants nothing to do with federal party.

[mileslunn]

Malpeque will be an interesting riding to watch... Wayne Easter has been MP for so long, we don't know if it's a true Liberal riding or if it's a Wayne Easter riding.

In the last provincial election, the Tories swept 5/7 provincial ridings in Malpeque, but when it comes to PEI, comparing federal and provincial elections is like comparing apples and oranges. Federally, the Tories tend to do better in the west (Prince Co/Egmont), while provincially they do better in the east (Kings Co/Cardigan). Recent electoral referendums show that support for reform is stronger the closer you get to Charlottetown. If you use that as a proxy for how conservative a place is, then the reality is both Prince and Kings are more small-c conservative. Malpeque being more in the middle is influenced by its proximity to Charlottetown, and support for electoral reform did quite well there in the 2019, so the area leans more progressive. Anyway, I'm getting too #analysis here. Bigger factors are candidate strength for sure, and (this may be me hugely speculating) also who voters think will win the federal election. I think one of the reasons the Tories won Egmont in 2008 because voters there wanted a seat at the cabinet table for PEI.  It helped that Gail Shea was a sitting MLA - but she did run against a former Premier.

Even just looking at polls in riding, generally western half which is fairly rural is more conservative while eastern half more progressive as despite its rural feel, many in eastern half commute to Charlottetown whereas much less so in western half.  I think in 2008 and 2011, Tories would have flipped riding if Easter was not candidate, but Liberals would have won last two, otherwise this is pretty close to an average riding in Atlantic Canada for Tory support so its the type they can win if on track for a solid minority or majority, but Liberals if they are going to win or even just narrowly lose would win this with a generic candidate.  Greens I believe are strong in eastern half but weaker in western half but certainly if Greens weren't in the bad state they are now, would have a shot here. 

Based on how things are now politically, I think Liberals should hold this without too much difficulty.  Only if things really go sideways would this riding be vulnerable.  Miramichi-Grand Lake however I believe is a different story.  They barely won it in 2019 so while would almost certainly hold it if an election were held today; if Tories make any gains in Atlantic Canada even only very modest, that one will flip.  Otherwise Tories have better chance of winning Miramichi-Grand Lake than they do the election whereas with Malpeque that is not the case.

[mileslunn]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade. 

Overall probably good news for NDP as a lot of Green supporters are types who dislike both Liberals and Tories so I see NDP benefitting most.  Liberals could get some too as a fair bit of overlap.  Probably Tories being most harm as weaker splits although ironically on a lot of issues, Green voters aren't that left wing so if O'Toole runs on a moderate enough platform, there is some potential, but still overall probably a net loss for party. 

[mileslunn]

Ekos poll out https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/06/politics-and-pandemic/ and seems to show most believe worst behind us.  Probably true although rise in UK should be warning with new variants we could see a spike, although at least UK is only seeing a spike in cases, not in deaths which are staying low, so perhaps covid is here to stay but won't kill as many and like flu have to learn to live with it.

Numbers absolutely horrible for Tories.  It seems O'Toole's moderation pushing some on hard right away, but not gaining any centrist while Trudeau's pivot to left not pushing NDP down.  I think though demographics should make Tories very worried about long term future.  I had a separate post on when will Labour in UK and Tories in Canada return to power.  While both in terrible shape, at least Labour doing well amongst groups growing so have reason for optimism long term even if things look bad short term.  For Tories in Canada no such thing.  Yes people get fed up with government and want change and polls just a snapshot, but I think if Harper's goal was to make Tories natural governing party, he failed miserably.  Also Nanos which is paywalled shows Tories ceiling low.  While O'Toole unlike Singh is not exactly likeable, I also think in general Canadians don't like conservatism and what it is selling and prefer progressive politics.  Yes higher inflation, debt crisis could change things, but I get impression in Canada many are saying enough of the neo-liberal era and wish to return to big government era.  In other countries cultural conservatism tends to trump economic wishes whereas in Canada that is not the case.

I think NDP does have potential to gain from Green implosion.  Greens still pretty high, but in Ekos they often tend to put them higher than what they usually get and I've found polls in general tend to overestimate them.  Probably accurate in support, but many strategically vote on election day knowing in vast majority of ridings they have no chance at winning.

[mileslunn]

More on the fissures in the Conservative Party:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-conservative-party-is-at-odds-with-itself-can-otoole-pull-it-together/

Very interesting.  I think as said earlier biggest challenge for Tories is being conservative enough to appeal to base and moderate enough to appeal to swing voters.  A decade ago that was a challenge but there was enough overlap a good leader could accomplish that as Harper did.  Since then I believe the divergence has meant gap is too big.

Reason median voters have swung leftward is really two fold:

1.  Income Inequality: While greatest increases in income inequality came in 90s, Occupy Wall Street really put that in the spotlight and took it from a peripheral issue to central issue.  While free market may be good at creating prosperity, it tends to lead to fairly unequal outcomes.  Otherwise only way to reduce this is through a more activist government which off course any Conservative party will oppose thus helps parties on left.

2.  Climate Change: As risks from it are getting nearer and nearer, its become a bigger issue.  For left it is easy to win on as they tend to favour bigger government and most solutions here involve bigger government.  Yes a revenue neutral carbon tax is a market mechanism which if Tories had some foresight should have run on but problem is most of their base thinks climate change is a hoax while it is left who want strong action.  Not surprisingly those in the middle that want something done but open to different solutions are gravitating towards parties that believe it is a serious issue, not ones still debating whether it is real or a hoax.

By contrast base has become even more right wing than they were a decade ago and I blame three things primarily

1.  Social media echo chambers: Those who interact with people of different views are more likely to have moderate non-ideological viewpoints as they here a variety of viewpoints thus get a well rounded viewpoint.  If in an echo chamber only hearing one side, it tends to harden one's views and push them more to extremes.  Sort of like Fox News effect in US which has really pushed GOP to right.

2.  Election of Trump: With Trump pushing fake news and dark web conspiracy theories, that has drawn in a certain crowd and a lot come from base thus believe in ridiculous crazy ideas that are not grounded in any reality.  Yet trying to reason with them never works as they are convinced they are right.

3.  Social Conservatives:  Social Conservatives don't care about nuances, they feel strongly about issue and will never go away.  Since they thought Harper would advance their issues but didn't, they are determined to ensure next leader does and won't let them off the hook.  They figure like most eventually people will fatigue of Liberals and Tories will bounce back so they want to make sure their wishes get done this time.  They never consider possibility if Tories don't change, they may never win again.  They assume since all governments eventually get defeated and Tories only party to ever beat Liberals; party will eventually win someday no matter what position it takes.

I also think pandemic has really split right.  Left is pretty united in support of public health measures but right deeply split.  Red Tories tend to believe in policy serving greater good while more right wing believes in greater freedom.  In many cases common good and freedom are complimentary to each other so easy to stay on same page.  But with pandemic quite the opposite.  Common good is served by strict public health measures including lockdowns and mask mandates.  Right of party see this as infringement on freedom, which it is and thus oppose those measures.  Trying to take middle ground like Ford and Kenney did just angers both sides as moderates see putting lives at greater risk than necessary as a dereliction of duty while base sees this as an abuse of power and argue freedom trump everything else and health risk, especially if only a minority (around 1-2%) die is not sufficient reason to restrict one's freedom.

So in summary, I think a perfect storm has come about that basically puts right in a lose-lose situation.  Try to moderate and risk split on right.  Move further to right and only appeal to base and no one else.  And unlike in past where some middle ground between two could be found, now it seems doing that just angers both sides and pleases no one.

By contrast left is broadly united on most issues and differences are more over degree not direction.  Its very easy to compromise over degree.  Impossible to over direction.   

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet, Research & co. and Abacus out and all show big leads for Liberals with Tories all doing poorly so I don't think Ekos is off here.  I think Tories are in a big rut.  Now yes historically they have tended to outperform polls and considering how much base hates Trudeau, I imagine in end they will come around to support O'Toole, but still I think Tories getting sub 30% is not just possible, its likely at this point.  Whether just a blip or long term trend hard to know, but I tend to unlike others see the shift to left as long term and that Tories aren't just in a rut now but in permanent decline.  That doesn't mean will never win again as never is a long time, although it is certainly possible they will never return to power albeit unlikely.  But I do stand by my view odds are they won't win in next decade.

While future hard to predict, I do think swing left in Canada if it happens would be akin to New Deal coalition you saw in US after Great Depression.  Generally crisis lead to big shifts so a big shift left due to pandemic would not be unprecedented.  Only question is why Canada going that way and not others so can Canada remain an outlier on this or will it follow broader trends?