Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7991602/ipsos-poll-election-liberals-tories-june/ more bad news for Tories.  Yes good news for Liberals although 38% while higher than last election, is hardly high for Liberals by historical standards.  And idea pandemic bad for opposition is not case with NDP and BQ, only Tories and Greens.  And even Greens with trouble don't seem to be doing too bad but often polls put them higher than they get on election day.  By contrast Tories are on track for worst showing.  I guess question is could different leader and different policies give different results or do Canadians just dislike conservatism in general and want a more progressive direction?  I think a bit of both.

By historic standards 38% for the LPC isn't that great, but it's worth keeping in mind that The NDP, the Greens, and the Bloc on the left, as well as the CPC on the right, are all primarily trying to win over Liberal supporters. With that in mind, it's downright impressive that the Liberals are still dominating CanPoli instead of crumbling.

I think the Tories' problem is that they lack a real raison d'être right now. The NDP's is the same as always - criticize the Liberals from the left and advocate social democratic policies. This was a little tricky pre-pandemic, but since the pandemic struck they have a very clear message to go for. The Bloc struggled with raison d'être in the final years of Duceppe and most of Trudeau's first term, but Blanchet has reinvented them as kind of a CAQ-adjacent Quebec populist party that advocates Quebec interests in Ottawa.

What is the CPC's raison d'être? Fiscal conservatism and austerity? Yeah, that's not what people want at this juncture at all. Middle class interests? The Liberals have that on lock. Business interests? Ditto, other than some sectors of the corporate world like oil and gas, but environmentalism is a bigger vote winner than o&g interests nowadays. Social conservatism? Yeah, not in a country like Canada. Populism/nativism/anti-immigration? There's probably more votes to be won with this approach than some may think, but it also rallies support behind the Liberals. Anti-corruption? This is usually the Liberals' biggest weak spot after all, but the shady practices of Tory premiers like Ford and Kenney hurt the CPC's credibility here.

Really, there doesn't seem to be a winning issue for the CPC at this point, and the party has no idea what to do. Now O'Toole's trying to shore up the vote with soft nationalism/populism on issues like "cancel Canada day" and even there he's overplaying his hand by talking about it to a nauseating extent (plus, Trudeau's savvy enough not to take a full on cancel Canada day position, but a more nuanced "we should celebrate our country but also acknowledge our imperfections" position).

I guess real question is are there any issues Canadians lean right on.  Usually we've been a mix leaning left on things like health care, environment, social issues, while right on issues like economy, debt/deficit, taxes so parties on left would focus on former and parties on right on latter.  It seems now Canadians are left wing across the board so Tories don't have an issue they can focus on.  British Tories at least as Brits turned away from austerity shifted to Brexit and cultural issues where Brits still lean right thus why doing well.  Long term if Canadians are left wing across the board, that pretty much means Tories cannot win.

Now its possible by 2025, that will change.  After all if spending isn't pared down, debt/deficits will reach point of being an issue.  And likely Liberals will respond with tax hikes not spending cuts.  While probably will start with some tax hike on rich, there simply aren't enough of them to cover costs, never mind with more working remotely some will just move elsewhere.  So I guess that is the question is fiscal conservatism permanently underwater or will as pandemic fades, it start to come back?

And finally, could Tories perhaps run on just opposing big spending and hope Liberals go too much to left and try and run on idea they are centrist party who won't raise taxes and will keep and protect all existing programs, but won't create any new ones?  Any thoughts on that.  As I think by nature Trudeau is fairly left wing and its more been others in party who have pushed him to hold the line, but he would like to move party more to left and with polls he might be able to make case to do so which he couldn't in past. 

[mileslunn]

Who are the suspects for this church arsonism?

None yet so that is real question.  But quite possible just vandals looking for an excuse so who knows.

[mileslunn]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

[mileslunn]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

BC is more divided between Lower Mainland and Interior so probably lose all theirs west of Abbotsford but keep most east of that.  In Ontario lose all those anywhere near metro areas but hold the more rural ones so get around 20-25 seats there down from 36.  BC around 8-12 seats.  Even in Alberta I see them falling below 30 seats but probably still north of 25 seats.  Unfortunately Lewis wins her seat in Haldimand-Norfolk thus making her frontrunner.  Michelle Rempel holds her two but only because she switched seats, had she run in Calgary-Confederation, I believe she would lose hers.  But if enough strategic voting and federal Liberals tie O'Toole to Kenney, an outside chance she loses hers.

[mileslunn]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

I guess more saying pretty rural and most of rural Ontario usually goes Conservative, but with how bad things are in Ontario now, I suspect some rural will flip not just this riding but a number of others too.  I've heard rumours internals on seats are absolutely devastating and worse than many in public realize.  Thus why my suggestion Tories don't form government in next decade is something I feel more and more confident about as each day goes by.  SoCon wing will take over if they lose bad enough so its why I don't see party coming back anytime soon.

[mileslunn]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.

[mileslunn]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.

It sure was.  The GTA and Lower Mainland have really trended away from the Conservatives.

I could probably write a book today arguing how Liberals will be natural governing party and future is firmly on left and right will wither away, but I think as that shows always should be careful about making long term projections.  Even though I would argue case today for a big shift left is far greater than case was in 2013 for big shift to right. 

Fallacy of Ibbitson and Bricker's argument is they ignored while Atlantic Canada and Quebec may be declining in influence, they are still 1/3 of population and pretty hard to win a majority if you are winning few seats there.  Also in Ontario, their book was after Ontario 2011 election so should have realized declaring 905 belt would be permanently dominated by Conservatives was silly.  Conservatives sometimes win big there and probably will in future, but more often than not they don't.  BC may have at time looked favourable to right but anyone who studied history of province would realize prior to 1993, it was more mixed bag federally and provincial dominance of right (which is no longer case) was quite different.  Finally with Alberta growing rapidly, they ignored possibility that as more people from elsewhere in Canada settled in Alberta, it was not implausible that Alberta would start to vote like elsewhere.

Lastly their idea of more immigrants favouring Conservatives was quite naive.  Yes a lot of immigrants lean right, but also too Tory base has far more racists than other parties.  Sure most Tories are not racists but fact most racists are Tories very much meant future leaders wouldn't necessarily be able to keep that element under control way Harper did.  Fact is looking globally, right occasionally makes breakthrough amount minorities elsewhere, but tend to not have staying power thus ignored this.  Bush in 2004 did quite well amongst Hispanics, but McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 did not and they ignored possibility of similar trajectory in Canada which has happened.

So in summary anytime you want to take about a big shift, best to wait a few election cycles to see if a blip or permanent shift.  Even though I believe there is a permanent shift to left, I wouldn't be so silly to write a book until after a few cycles to confirm it or deny it.

[mileslunn]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

[mileslunn]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

Partly, but Prince George has two provincial ridings and BC Liberals won both by over 20 points in 2020.  Ditto Kamloops while Todd Stone's riding includes the more affluent part of Kamloops which is the south side while north side is more working class thus traditionally better for NDP.  I mean not all bad for NDP as while they've lost some traditional ones in Interior, they've more than made than up by gaining many traditional BC Liberal ones in Lower Mainland so shift ended up working out in their favour overall.

[mileslunn]

Prince George and Kamloops maybe urban but small cities, sort of akin to Barrie and Brantford which still vote Tory although could lose both, but tend to perform better than they do overall and only lose in these cities if they have a really bad election.  In Canada, about half the country live in metro areas over 500,000 so even if Tories or parties on right elsewhere just dominate all those under 100,000, not nearly enough to win.

For Burlington and Kanata-Carleton, relative to province as a whole they were a decade clearly to right of it while now more or less in line thus go whichever way Ontario goes whereas a decade ago generally voted to right of province.

[mileslunn]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

Also depends on where dividing line falls.  Its small enough it could fall on the right side not left side.  In both US and UK, generally cities its size have been trending rightward.  Its more larger ones trending leftward which off course is where majority live and most of the growth.

[mileslunn]

Barrie and Brantford agree aren't Tory strongholds, but both cities do tend to vote to right of the province as a whole.  Yes the inclusion of rural parts no doubt helps Tories as well.  Now yes swing overall as Ontario and Canada as a whole tend to go Liberal most of the time and only Tory when Liberals overstay welcome.  Prince George and Kamloops are a bit more isolated and Interior has a very different economy than coastal BC (much more resource driven) thus why voting patterns much different.

I agree Kanata and Burlington increasingly becoming Liberal and days of Tory dominance long over.  I guess real question is when Tories do win, will they still be able to win those in future or are they lost.  I am thinking they still win those when they form government and if they get to point they can no longer win those, I don't see how they have a path to forming government then.

Do you think Anglo-Canada should change its alcohol sale system?

The United States only has private liquor stores, while Quebec (and I'm sure much of the rest of the world) goes farther and allows it to be sold in Grocery Stores and at Gas Stations.

Would you support doing the America approach of privatizing liquor stores, or the Quebec approach of allowing it to be sold in any store?

Quebec still has SAQ, but yes you can buy beer and wine at corner stores and gas stations unlike in most of Canada.  In Newfoundland you can also buy beer, but not wine or spirits at corner stores.  Alberta is similar to Australia, completely private, but has to be at an actual liquor store, no corner or grocery store sales.  New Zealand allows beer and wine at full sized supermarkets but not corner stores or gas stations and also private.  BC is a mixed system as while grocery stores cannot sell booze, we do have private liquor stores that compete alongside government.  Also in US, some states do have government stores, but usually only for hard liquor not beer and wine.  Most are private however, but like Canada laws very state by state.  Also several dry counties, particularly in South.

I don't know that it is puritanism nowadays as more public health concerns.  Most of opposition to liberalizing alcohol sales comes from left not right.  A combination of unions at government stores not wanting more competition while other is health concerns.  Canada has a very strong nanny state mentality in general so it goes more to that although historically yes was religious based.

nbeatable electoral titan, the Rt. Hon. Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Baron Teflonshire? Or the Theresa May of the loyal North American colony? That's gonna be the main question of this election because lord knows the Tories are a mess.

Expectations are set pretty high for the LPC right now. Anything short of a majority will feel like a Theresa May-esque faceplant, where an election held categorically to win a majority leads to a minority. According to 338Canada, there's about a 50% chance of this happening (their latest projection puts the Liberals at exactly 169 seats, one off a majority). Maybe their internals are looking better, as seemed to be the case in 2019 when the Liberals were acting pretty bullish while the rest of us were thinking they wouldn't cross 140. But based on the public polls, I wonder if Trudeau is being too bullish about getting ready to call an election to gain a majority.

It's easy to look at the CPC's disarray and think the Liberal path to a majority is easy-peasy, but I'm not so sure. If nobody thinks the Tories can win, strategic voting will soften and the NDP will make gains. Being held to a minority in 2019 wasn't so bad, but if that happens in 2021, it signals a serious vulnerability in the Liberal Party. Put simply, if they can't win a majority now, I struggle to see how they can do so in 2025, or whenever the 45th Canadian election gets held.

Agreed fully and I expect Tories to do really bad.  Still another wildcard is Canada gets a fourth wave like UK is having now.  High levels of vaccination seem to do a good job in preventing deaths and hospitalizations, but not necessarily cases (although in UK almost all cases amongst non-vaccinated).  Delta Variant especially worrisome as first shot only 30% effective while second is 80%.  Never mind when kids return in the Fall, that is another big risk as they haven't been vaccinated yet.  So be interesting how that could impact Trudeau.  Furey got hurt by a COVID wave.  Yukon now is having 15-20 cases a day which may not sound like a lot but relative to its population that would be like Canada having 15,000 to 20,000 a day so there is that.  And with COVID fatigue so high, I don't think public is willing to take another lockdown.  Maybe some minor restrictions, but I think we are done with full lockdowns.  And so this may hurt Trudeau.  Not enough to lose to Tories, but enough to ensure he doesn't get a majority

One good thing about going soon as Tories are at weak spot and thinking is worse Tories do, more likely O'Toole gets blamed for moderating too much so they replace him with a much further right socially conservative leader thus ensuring Liberals win again in 2025 or whenever next election is even if a minority.  If Tories at least recover, better chance next leader is more moderate who could pose a threat.

[mileslunn]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

Although with Conservatives in mid 20s, are they really winning those.  I can see how maybe provincially they are in last round and maybe did in 2019 but I think while a minority, the percentage of Canadians who are fiscally conservative (i.e. don't raise taxes, keep deficits under control, only spend what you can afford) is probably over 30% although likely under 40%.  Now yes I agree Liberals going rightward would be incredibly stupid.  It would only make sense if Tories implode completely and NDP actually starts winning.  Otherwise if federal politics start to look like BC politics then it might make sense, but we are ways away from that happening and I am skeptical it ever will.

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route.  As for globally, that used to be the case but now a lot more mixed up.  Social democratic parties overseas at all time lows, but their support hasn't really flowed to one party.  Some educated urban types going to Liberal parties, some going Greens, some going further left as feel they are abandoning core left policies, others going over to far right as many far right parties are left wing economically but culturally conservative.  So I think idea that UK system of Conservative vs. Labour is end results isn't necessarily the case especially in multi party systems.

[mileslunn]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

[mileslunn]

Someone could die from this.  This is not good and while I don't think you can blame any politicians needs to be condemned.  Fires when started can easily spread much further, especially in Summer and if this continues it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when someone dies.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article-should-you-move-to-a-small-town-in-retirement/?utm_campaign=sophi-pop&utm_medium=post&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ivsKD18V4P0ED_BtEgD2CHE4BshYbHinsjAe_0kZRMCFX2Oxz8FKv6vo this is interesting and wonder if with more working remotely and high housing prices, we see an increase in those living in rural areas for a change.  Be interested on the political impact.  Will this make rural areas more progressive as former urban voters bring their progressive values with them.  Some signs this happened in US, see Nevada County, California; Door County, Wisconsin; Leelanau County, Michigan; and Columbia County, New York which are all largely rural but lots of former city dwellers and used to vote GOP but all went for Biden.  In case of Door and Leelanau counties, I am almost positive Trump would have held both had it not been for pandemic which caused many city white collar workers who work remotely to re-locate there.  Be interesting if we see same here, particularly in Ontario I could see a few rural surprises for Liberals thanks to pandemic and more working remotely. 

By same time if rural population grows, will that long term help Conservatives as have more clout or will it more likely make rural areas more favourable to Liberals.  I tend to think latter, but mostly for rural areas near metro areas; ones more removed become even more conservative as it seems most from urban areas like areas close to metro areas and also have nice comfortable slow living, now largely farmland several hundred km away from nearest city.  In particular rural areas with lots of lakes which seem to attract ex city folks I could see becoming places where Liberals win.

[mileslunn]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

Yeah there's no doubt about the Tory implosion now. The extent to which this reflects a huge shift to the left, versus the Tories just being a garbage party with repeatedly-awful leaders, lack of any serious vision, held hostage by a reactionary element, all that is more up for debate.

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either. The long term outlook of Canpoli has seen the big two slowly decline in power as smaller parties, most notably the CCF-NDP and more recently the Bloc, have entered parliament and chipped away at the big boys. It's weird because theoretically FPTP is supposed to have the opposite effect, but for whatever reason, Canadians have started looking at smaller parties. That the Liberals won government with 33% of the vote, and that the biggest party of that election didn't even get 35%, is a good demonstration of this fragmentation. The fact that the Liberals are only 50/50 on a majority despite their chief opponent imploding is another.

We might even see a multi-party proportional representation type system if this trend bears out. It's not that hard to imagine a fragmented multiparty pizza parliament in Canada, since all parties are big tent parties representing diverse interest groups.

Most countries with PR are certainly seeing this.  In Germany, it used to be both main parties generally got over 40% while now one is in teens (SPD) and other CDU/CSU in 20s.  Same in Spain where two main parties ranged from 38-45% support, but now both under 30%.  Netherlands even worse as at one time winning party used to get around 30%, now winning struggles to hit 20%.  But those all use PR, of those with majoritarian systems not really seeing this.  Certainly not in US.  Even UK not really as Tories still north of 40% and Labour despite troubles still over 30% unlike our Tories.  Australia due to ranked system, you see it sometimes on first ballot, but runoff more or less take care of that.  And in France you see it a lot in first round, but second round obviously not although unlike past is no longer Conservatives (whatever name they use) vs. Socialists like it once was.

At provincial level though seeing this much less.  In fact in Alberta you are now seeing non-Tories much more united than they were pre-2015.  In Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan party has gotten over 60% three times in a row.  Quebec you are sort of seeing this but more for opposition as seems PQ and PLQ declining while CAQ gaining and QS uncertain.

What though is weird is having a 75/25 split left vs. right is very rare.  You have some subnational places like Wallonia, Catalonia, and Scotland where more lopsided but no countries I can think of today.  Yes Sweden and Finland through much of 20th century often had right around 25%, but this century averaged more around 40%.  Thus my idea Canada most left wing country.  Yes Liberals are far from as left wing as many parties elsewhere, but then again most parties left of Liberals are in the tank and doing quite poorly elsewhere.  Centre-right maybe a bit more moderate in some countries but still difference big enough that it cannot be explained exclusively be leader and policies and must be ideology too.

[mileslunn]

Other question is what caused such a big shift in last decade as doesn't seem to be happening elsewhere or at least not near to same extent in Canada.  15 point drop in Tories pretty steep and not as though any other ideological similar parties they can go for.  Nor can you blame it fully on demographic churn as population hasn't shifted that much.  At least with Liberal implosion in 2011 made sense as Blue Liberals went to Tories and progressive ones to NDP and then with Trudeau came back.  Thus NDP returned to traditional levels and Tories in 2015 and 2019 dropped a bit but still remained close to long term average (35% is about their average post WWII support with 30% low end and 40% high end) but now they are at record lows.  No other party on right and Liberals further from Tories than in past so question is what caused such a big shift left?

I can think of two potential reasons

1.  Income Inequality: Occupy Wall Street came just after Harper got majority and that brought issue to spotlight whereas before was not a top issue.  Definitely made things easier to left as most solutions to reduce this involve bigger government and left wing policies.  Yet despite this, don't see a huge backlash against it elsewhere despite fact Canada's levels of inequality are pretty close to OECD average.  Only possibility is being next door to US, where really bad, it makes people more concerned than those an ocean away while US culture is much more built on pull up your boot straps mentality while Canada is more like Europe that government needs to prevent inequality from getting too high, but bigger concern here than Europe.

2.  Climate Change: That seems to be a big one here and perhaps maybe that is primary reason.  In Europe, most centre-right parties support action on climate change so they don't have that against them.  In US and to lesser extent Australia, climate deniers are far more numerous than Canada so right can take approach climate change is a hoax and still win.  In Canada Tories in horrible spot.  Do nothing and thus means offside with most.  But take action and areas most negatively impacted economically are Alberta and Saskatchewan where party is strongest and risk hurting one of our largest industries.  Oil and gas is not a major industry in most European countries so less of a trade off.

Any thoughts on what is causing this?  Yes some will say pandemic, but you would think that would be happening everywhere not just here as most places have faced similar issues there.

[mileslunn]

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either.

This would be extremely crazy! As I have pointed out previously with reference to these wide-eyed predictions of doom, literally two years ago the Conservative Party received more votes than any other party. You can come up with elaborate reasoning for the Tories' demise if you want, but the actual issues are a poor leader coupled with the problems that opposition parties worldwide have faced in establishing a message during the pandemic.

Opposition parties aren't doing bad everywhere.  In Canada alone, they are ahead in both Alberta and Manitoba.  In Ontario PCs still lead, but are polling below 2018 levels and only ahead due to split.  Looking overseas, Norway looks set to change government this September.  In Germany, both SPD and CDU/CSU likely do worse than in 2017 although CDU/CSU probably remains head of government.  In Ireland, Sinn Fein competitive while in Spain, Popular Party is now leading in the polls.  In Australia, it is neck and neck.  In New Zealand, Ardern still has decent lead but things have tightened a bit and she would lose her majority, but could form government with Greens. 

True you never want to assume anything permanent, but my gut instinct is a big shift left is happening.  Doesn't mean Liberals will govern forever, but does mean long term we will have left wing governments and you will see much more left wing policies.  Some predictions I have made in next decade are as follows.

1.  Canada introduces Wealth tax while becomes first and only OECD country with top marginal rates to hit 60% mark.

2.  Pharmacare and Dental care introduced but unlike Europe who have hybrid system, government takes hard line on private health care and Canada becomes first and only developed country with a full government monopoly and outright ban on private health care.

3.  UBI introduced.

4.  A number of big firms get nationalized like telecommunications

In many ways I see Canada being where Sweden was in 1950s and Sweden up until 90s left had monopoly on power and had massive taxes, lots of state owned enterprises, and very heavy government involvement.  In 90s that changed and in Canada probably in 2050s it catches up and changes forced like Sweden.  For most of 20th century, right in Sweden languished around 25%.  No longer case but point is not unprecedented.  In Scotland right is usually in 20-25% range.  True some SNP supporters probably do lean right even though party left wing overall.

[mileslunn]

Leger with a pretty different reading of the race.

LPC: 33
CPC: 30
NDP: 19
BQ: 7 (32% in QC)
GPC: 5
PPC: 4

Ontario: LPC 37, CPC 31, NDP 20
Quebec: BQ 32, LPC 31, CPC 17, NDP 13
BC: LPC 35, NDP 31, CPC 21 (!), GPC 6
Alberta: CPC 54, LPC 25, NDP 14
Atlantic: LPC 39, NDP 29 (!), CPC 24
MB+SK: CPC 50, LPC 27, NDP 16

Weird time for polling, isn't it? If Leger's numbers are more accurate, the Liberals are looking at losing vote share in every polling region east of Manitoba, and an almost certain minority with those breakdowns. If Abacus or Nanos are more correct, then it's a pretty easy Liberal majority.

30% for the CPC is certainly on the higher end of the polling consensus, but no less plausible than Abacus' 25%. NDP around 20%, as expected. I'd expect the Liberals to pull better than 33% though, and losing vote share in Ontario seems pretty unlikely.

Quite possible real #'s fall in between and just usual MOE.  Although Trudeau's approval ratings seem rather low while premier's particularly Ford, Pallister, and Kenney seem to have gotten a strong bounce.  Pallister could be just small sample as Manitoba more volatile.  Kenney perhaps full re-opening did it but want to see others to confirm or deny it.  I also suspect summer especially as people get vaccinated is tough time to poll.  Still Liberals in good shape to win, but majority while likely is not a foregone conclusion.  No matter which poll you believe Tories in bad shape, just a matter of how bad.  NDP doing reasonably well but still in third place.

[mileslunn]

Agreed, many boomers remember PCs pre-merger so still open to voting Tories if they change, but most millennials and Gen Z only remember Harper era and have nothing but contempt for them.  As for three provincial, doesn't help although Ford is still leading in polls, but largely due to strong splits on left so he still could lose.  Yes polling higher than O'Toole, but probably due to incumbency factor and never mind Del Duca is a dud and too many don't trust NDP.  Pallister not doing great although I would say he got more bad luck than incompetence unlike Ford and Kenney.  He is trailing, but he has never been popular and I imagine with his age may not run again if polls don't rebound.  Kenney is doing horribly and yes will likely lose.  Even if he does get back in, which I don't think he will, its Alberta where Conservatives have a natural advantage that they lack in most parts of the country.

Legault, Higgs, and King probably best centre-right premiers but due to language in first and different name while small provinces in latter two, few know much about them and most in Quebec don't really associate Legault with Tories.  In New Brunswick and PEI most see this as further example of PCs still be worthy of government, Reform not. 

Liberals will always portray Tories in a bad light thus in that sense all Tory leaders when in opposition will be at a disadvantage as people may see Liberals as corrupt or arrogant but never as extreme.  Whereas with Tories when in opposition, always fear they will move too far to right if they win or do bad things.  But current Tories do a great job of playing into stereotype.  Off course even a better leader and change of tone wouldn't right ship easily.  It would more stop bleeding but brand so badly damaged it is going to take time to be fixed.  And possible may not as I think a lot of millennials and Gen Z see entire right of spectrum as woefully out of date and see left as future for all its flaws.

[mileslunn]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

True and you see a few others like that.  Wellingotn-Halton Hills, York-Simcoe and Niagara West are all easily within commuting distance of major urban centre yet some of the most reliably conservative ridings.  But always question of how long that holds up.  Flamborough-Glanbrook (not old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborugh-Glanbrook) but current riding went solidly Tory and was quite safe for them, but now way more competitive.

At same time population density for Lanark County is much lower than most exurbs.  O'Toole and Polievre's riding both have population densities over 100 people per square km while Lanark county is only around 25 people per square km.  For country comparisons, Durham and Carleton similar population densities to France, Lanark County is more akin to Sweden in population density.  Or if using US states, Durham and Carleton similar to Pennsylvania, Lanark county more like Iowa.  After 2019, there was a chart on results by population density and did show a pretty strong correlation there.

[mileslunn]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

Dufferin County is more dense than Lanark and sort of falls in between.  Unlikely Liberals flip Dufferin-Caledon, but its not as rock solid as Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston is and if Tories fell to only 20 seats in Ontario might be vulnerable while would have to fall to single digits before Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston turns red (that is seats in Ontario for Tories).

[mileslunn]

Nanos https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1412434909294206979 .  Just wow.  I think real question is without split on right, how low can Tories go?  In past most thought 30% or at least high 20s.  I think now its much lower.  Likewise for ceiling, what is Tory ceiling today?  I think it might be so low party cannot be elected.  Off course these things change, but every day gives me more and more evidence party is not going to return to power in next decade and that NDP not Tories will defeat Liberals when people fatigue.  If you check policies and look at everything, I just don't see Tory path to power.  I guess what I don't understand is how they got 40% a decade ago or even 34% in 2019, that seems light years away.  But big events sometimes lead to big shifts.

[mileslunn]

I think bigger problem for Tories is less topline #'s which can change and more leadership approval ratings.  Often leadership approval rating tends to be a lead indicator.  In 2008 and 2011, many pre-election polls showed Liberal party quite competitive, but when you looked at leadership approvals, but Dion and Ignatieff were much lower and once campaign started, polls moved towards that.  So if O'Toole had high unknown, could easily be fixed during campaign.  But with such high negatives it becomes a lot harder.  He essentially needs to convince many who dislike him he is someone quite different than they perceive and that is not easy.  First impressions are crucial in general.  They say at job interviews, usually interviewer decides whether they will hire the person or not within first 90 seconds.  Yes interview lasts a lot longer, but after first 90 seconds whatever impression they have then tends to more often than not influence final decision.  Thus with leaders when unknown, first impressions matter a lot.