GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024

[cherry mandarin]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

[cherry mandarin]

Trump isn't going to win Nevada, North Carolina

But he WILL carry MN and MI, under your outlined scenario?

[cherry mandarin]

PA is harder to flip than GA, AZ, and WI: it's just a larger state with massive Democrat-bastion Philadelphia.

Thing is, all 3 states  already voted  within 1% of  one another  in 2020. But Atlanta and Phoenix metros are both booming in size while also moving sharply to the left, whereas Philadelphia is growing at a far smaller pace, and crucially, the city itself is quickly becoming redder by the year.

as of now, NH is looking unlikely

I agree.

[cherry mandarin]

WI is unlikely to flip back to Trump.

What makes you say this?

all Trump Worshippers

Imagine  calling me a "Trump worshipper" lmao. Anyways,

I outlined one, but it's pretty unrealistic.

I think Trump could definitely get  any of NV, GA, AZ back though. And he's certainly the favourite  right now  in NC, if not a big one.

He also has a shot at flipping NH and ME-AL for sure, even if he's a significant underdog in both  as of  this moment.

[cherry mandarin]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

Which ones  do you think  will prove to be  unnecessary  to  his ultimate victory? MN and NH, I assume?

2022 and 2023 elections in WI.

Historically, off-year and midterm elections are a LOT less predictive of the upcoming presidential race  than  the previous cycle  itself, though.

[cherry mandarin]

Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back just off the back of certain third-party maneouvres

Do you think Kyrsten Sinema might have any bearing on the AZ presidential result, by the way?

I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago

What makes you say so?

All Trump 2020 states must be held, but only NC will be seriously contested unless the election becomes a veritable Democratic landslide

Agreed.

MN boasts relatively high rural white fertility; throughout the 2030s, as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point

What did you mean  by  this, specifically?

the Twin Cities growing quickly means it's probably going to trend leftward

Yeah, I suppose  this  sounds  somewhat  plausible, reasonable, realistic and broadly fathomable.

the 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

You think that's actually going to CONTINUE in 2024? Do you mean  relative to 2020 president, or the 2022 midterm races?

WI and PA still trended  leftward  from 2020, by the way.

[cherry mandarin]

NV has shifted  toward the left  in recent elections.

What? The last time NV experienced a leftward swing (for President, I mean) was 2008.

Down-ballot, though, NV's rightward tilt is *even more* evident. For instance, the GOP carried the statewide House PV by  over 4 points  in 2022.

Republicans haven't won a Federal Race since 2012.

In 2022, Nevada featured the ONLY incumbent governor OR senator *in the country* to get toppled, and of course it was a Republican defeating Steve Sisolak.

Presidential Turnout

As opposed to turnout for state-level races, which has helped Mark Kelly (multiple times), Kyrsten Sinema, Katie Hobbs, and Raphael Warnock (multiple times) win?

WI seems like the least likely one to flip.

Why's that?

I don't think Trump will win but that one is the likeliest of all.

Which one?

[cherry mandarin]

a red wave year.

Which version of 2022 did you happen to live through, my friend?

[cherry mandarin]

Unusually old and unusually Hispanic in-migration

Why are unusually old and unusually Hispanic people  going there, I wonder?

the local GOP is not very competent, while the FLGOP is unusually competent

Surely there has to be MORE at play, given that we're talking about the difference  between  losing last year's gubernatorial election (despite a universally reviled, weak candidate who refused to even debate her opponent) and trouncing a well-known and well-liked former governor by 20 points (despite low spending and the incumbent's much-publicized national ambitions)?

it has trended Republican at multiple consecutive cycles, and so is overdue for some reversion to the mean.

With  trends that are sufficiently consistent  to  last  for  a number of  cycles  in a row, reversion "to the mean" usually  actually  doesn't occur.

Ohio

2022 was mostly a Tim Ryan thing, and partly a J.D. Vance/toxic and divisive primary, featuring a recount/weak candidates factor. I'm fairly confident in saying Republicans' struggles  in that regard  were  isolated to  last year, though  obviously  that doesn't help them  take Sherrod Brown out, either.

Wisconsin

Tony Evers faced a very competitive race, while Ron Johnson cruised to re-election by comparison, despite the GOP collapse region-wide.

MI/PA look iffier

Are you saying Biden has a chance to carry OH in 2024, or just that it's more likely to *trend* D than MI and PA are? What do you think their margins are likely to be, by the way?

in particular, the MI outcome  from 2022  has  patterns  which seem iffy  for Democrats.

How so?

unlike most places

What makes you say this?

Last year, MI saw an extremely good turnout environment  for Democrats

What do you mean  by  that?

the former would generally tend to imply some sort of rightward trend

Why's that?

a potential 2024 Election Night surprise that might actually make some sense would be MI voting to the right of WI. Right now, Milwaukee is not declining as quickly as Detroit.

Detroit's getting redder  more quickly  than Milwaukee is, though, but that's already factored into  our calculations  here.

[cherry mandarin]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss  was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be  on  the ticket.

...

[cherry mandarin]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss
 was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be
 on  the ticket.

...

Florida and New York mostly.

Exactly; ~2 states  out of 50 in total.

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

[cherry mandarin]

If the GOP had a Tim Scott going up against Biden, I'd be comfortable calling it tilt R

Martha McSally lost it twice in recent years. So did Blake Masters, despite actually running a low-key decently strong campaign. What makes you think the Tim Scott-type of national candidate would do better than those failures?

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

Well yeah, it's likely going to not move much in either direction. You act like it's enough to make a difference... it isn't.

PA is so big, and so close, that just about *anything* in a city the size of Philadelphia proper  is likely going to impact statewide races there.

We saw Philly  not just  trend, but  also  swing, toward Trump  between 2016 and 2020. As I have elaborated elsewhere, it appears there would be  a decent amount of evidence that would suggest this may be the case  again  in 2024. I agree that rapidly growing and Democratizing suburbs  present a really big problem  for Trump, but  that  will be (at least  partially) cancelled out  by  the trends  taking place  in urban Philadelphia, I should think.

[cherry mandarin]

Trump is probably maxed out in many of the rurals.

Personally, I think he still has *some* room  to grow, at least. Whether he can turn  that potential  into actual votes  remains to be seen, but I'm of the mind that  that ceiling  is, indeed, there  for his taking.

[cherry mandarin]

JFF: GA+WI+NV+Maine to 269

It's an interesting thought, but I doubt ME turns red  all while AZ, PA,  MI, MN, and (especially) NH each stay blue.

And then the state legislatures will just throw it

State legislators??

[cherry mandarin]

if you meant easiest as in his shortest possible path, mathematically speaking (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path)

In which case, they're *all* equally "easy", as Trump's path requires him to gain 35 (or 34, depending  on  how you count it) Biden EVs. That's what I was confused by.

[cherry mandarin]

Even if he was polished in interviews, politics is all perception

Wut.

AZ is still a right leaning state

It really isn't. Doug Ducey was the last Republican to win a noteworthy statewide race  in AZ, and he's long been put to pasture, politically speaking.

him or Christie.

Do you have  any idea  what  the modern AZ GOP is like? Hell, if Joe Arpaio ran  as  an independent  he'd get  more  votes  than  Chris Christie.

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say, too.

I think it's kind of difficult to say  which of the three out of WI/MI/PA is going to represent  his easiest lift  to him. Assuming a decent sun-belt performance, he'll definitely need at least one of them.

Assuming he can flip NE-02 back  into  his column, he *technically* doesn't. If he can (surprisingly) flip NH or ME-AL, the tiebreaker won't even be necessary. But you're right—in *all* likelihood, it'll be a practical necessity  for Trump to carry *at least* one of WI/MI/PA.

In  both of  Trump's elections, WI has voted  ever so *slightly* to the right of PA, and PA has voted *even more* so  to the right of MI. All else  remaining  equal, I'd have to stick with  the status quo  in  my personal predictions, at least  for  now.


If he can't flip *any* of NV/AZ/GA, he has *no* path to victory  without *both* of PA and MI.

If he can flip NV, it'll suffice  for Trump to win 2 of the 3 Midwestern battlegrounds, as long as PA is  one of them.

If he gets AZ but *not* NV, any combination of 2 of the 3 Midwestern states  will get  him  there.

If he wins *both* NV and AZ, he needs *either* PA, *or* the combination of WI + MI.

If he gets GA, he can win  by  picking up PA, or  through  WI + MI.

If he carries GA alongside NV, either PA or MI will suffice, but *not* WI unless he can also flip NH or ME-AL.

If he can win *both* GA and AZ, any of  the 3 Midwestern states  will do.

Obviously, with GA + NV + AZ, his easiest  path  to 270  still runs through  one of those 3 Midwestern battlegrounds.

AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't seem to be very bad  for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are largely in tune with Trump's views, positions, and overall message. Quite plausibly, AZ/PA/WI could  each  be  more easily attainable  than  GA will be. Even a *tiny* relative decline  in AA turnout  could spell  doom and disaster  for Biden  in GA.

Agreed.

[cherry mandarin]

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

I agreed  with  everything  up until  this point; what  you said  here  doesn't really make  the *most* sense, lmao.

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

That's hardly  an accurate description  for MI or PA, either.

Ds might even be winning  the country  by  double digits  altogether, so  there's  the ball-game!

Bruh.

[cherry mandarin]

In 2022 exit polling, AZ was split about evenly between college graduates and non-graduates, while NV’s white voter pool was 2-1 non college voters.

I'd take it  this *could* be  good news  for  the Republicans  in NV, right?

As to PA and MI, which *other* states "best" represent the idea of a long-term swing state to you?

Well, that's the thing—I think  it's  a  flawed concept  to begin with, because  each state, by definition (in  my own mind, at least) is *always* shifting and drifting—either  rightward, or  toward  the left  instead.

But, to answer  your question,  I'd suggest  examples  such as  FL (pre-2018), NC, NV, MN, NH, ME, NM, WI  as  some of  the states  that are moving  the *least* quickly  of all—though, admittedly, some of them  merely  sit  on  the periphery  of "swing state" status—that is, if  they  even  count  at all. Examples  such as MN, NH, WI, NV at *certain* points  had  their  competitive air  obscured  by  Obama's dominance  during  his 2 elections, but  they quickly reverted  to their "normal" state of affairs, so to speak, not long  after  his departure  from  the top  of  the Democratic ticket.

that was an autocorrect. I was trying to argue that Maricopa will usually vote D by double digits. Not our country, overall.

I'm sorry—that was *my* mistake, not yours. I simply misread  your comment, my apologies!

Though I'm still skeptical that Maricopa will shift *as* quickly as you're suggesting, its trend  does  indeed  appear to be  leftward-leaning, over  the long-term.

[cherry mandarin]

all those people who're moving to Maricopa are left-leaning

They aren't "all" left-leaning, but they *predominantly* are. Furthermore, existing voters  who *already* live  there  are beginning to vote  more and more Democratic. Population growth  is also occurring  due to  the rapid aging-up  of  youth  in  that county  into  its electorate, as  its median age  falls  below  that of  other places  nationwide, and  older voters  make up  a smaller share  of  its overall population.

[cherry mandarin]

Kimberly Yee, and Tom Horne

Opinions  on  Olawakandi's long-winded rant  against you  yesterday?

[cherry mandarin]

It presumes that his votes would've gone to Biden instead, though. I'm sure that's going to be true for  some, but not enough that it'll actually swing a state. Like Nader, he might turn out a ton of people who otherwise simply wouldn't have voted at all.

Why did you edit  my own post? Please  revise it  or  make  your own  post or comment  if you want to say  something that I never wrote  in the first place, to begin with.

[cherry mandarin]

I think it goes through GA+WI and then either AZ or PA.

Not Nevada?