GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say, too.

I think it's kind of difficult to say  which of the three out of WI/MI/PA is going to represent  his easiest lift  to him. Assuming a decent sun-belt performance, he'll definitely need at least one of them.

Assuming he can flip NE-02 back  into  his column, he *technically* doesn't. If he can (surprisingly) flip NH or ME-AL, the tiebreaker won't even be necessary. But you're right—in *all* likelihood, it'll be a practical necessity  for Trump to carry *at least* one of WI/MI/PA.

In  both of  Trump's elections, WI has voted  ever so *slightly* to the right of PA, and PA has voted *even more* so  to the right of MI. All else  remaining  equal, I'd have to stick with  the status quo  in  my personal predictions, at least  for  now.


If he can't flip *any* of NV/AZ/GA, he has *no* path to victory  without *both* of PA and MI.

If he can flip NV, it'll suffice  for Trump to win 2 of the 3 Midwestern battlegrounds, as long as PA is  one of them.

If he gets AZ but *not* NV, any combination of 2 of the 3 Midwestern states  will get  him  there.

If he wins *both* NV and AZ, he needs *either* PA, *or* the combination of WI + MI.

If he gets GA, he can win  by  picking up PA, or  through  WI + MI.

If he carries GA alongside NV, either PA or MI will suffice, but *not* WI unless he can also flip NH or ME-AL.

If he can win *both* GA and AZ, any of  the 3 Midwestern states  will do.

Obviously, with GA + NV + AZ, his easiest  path  to 270  still runs through  one of those 3 Midwestern battlegrounds.

AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't seem to be very bad  for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are largely in tune with Trump's views, positions, and overall message. Quite plausibly, AZ/PA/WI could  each  be  more easily attainable  than  GA will be. Even a *tiny* relative decline  in AA turnout  could spell  doom and disaster  for Biden  in GA.

Agreed.

[xavier110]

As an Arizonan, I have extreme doubts that Trump will win here. Will it be close? Of course. But it’s increasingly becoming more difficult for the GOP to win statewide, and Trump is just about the worst possible candidate to run. Add Kari into the mix, and you have a radioactive combo representing the GOP.

The same people who voted Sinema, Biden, Kellyx2, Hobbs, Fontes aren’t suddenly going for Trump. The state’s moderate/McCain base has all but abandoned the Trump wing. You can see this around Paradise Valley/Scottsdale (AZ-01), where new residents aren’t just driving this — it’s actual persuasion/Rs hemorrhaging what used to be their core educated, affluent voters. Schweikert will lose the district, and in turn, the Ds at the top of the ticket will again carry Maricopa. Pima is going to be landslide territory.

Where do they make up the votes? Biden probably wins by a point or two, but AZ increasingly breaks against Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don’t see it staying a permanent swing state like a MI/PA and instead goes the way of CO/VA in 10 years as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there’s the ball game.

The GOP should obviously still try here, but IMO, the Rust Belt + NV remains the more sensible path to victory. The AZ GOP relied much more heavily on a white collar educated voter than NV GOP, who can tap into a less educated white voter pool. In the 2022 exit polls of white voters, AZ was about split evenly between college graduate and non-graduates, while NV was 2-1 non college white voters. (The AZ white college graduates broke 20% or more for the Ds…)

[cherry mandarin]

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

I agreed  with  everything  up until  this point; what  you said  here  doesn't really make  the *most* sense, lmao.

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

That's hardly  an accurate description  for MI or PA, either.

Ds might even be winning  the country  by  double digits  altogether, so  there's  the ball-game!

Bruh.

[xavier110]

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

I agreed  with  everything  up until  this point; what  you said  here  doesn't really make  the *most* sense, lmao.

AZ will increasingly break against the Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don't see it staying a permanent swing state, like MI or PA, but instead it'll just go the way of CO and VA in 10 years' time, as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there's the ball game.

That's hardly  an accurate description  for MI or PA, either.

Ds might even be winning  the country  by  double digits  altogether, so  there's  the ball-game!

Bruh.

I just added this note: In the 2022 exit polls of white voters, AZ was about split evenly between college graduate and non-graduates, while NV’s white voter pool was 2-1 non college voters. (The AZ white college graduates broke 20% or more for the Ds…)

This is why AZ is going away from the Rs. Permanently. It’s new migration of white professionals who register largely as Is but overwhelmingly vote D and Rs hemorrhaging their country club voters. Add in a large young Mexican-American population becoming eligible to vote, and the math isn’t mathing for the GOP.

This isn’t changing, barring some complete revamp and expulsion of the Trumpers.

And for your PA/MI comment, I guess what other states best represent sort of long term swing state status to you?

And last point — sorry, that was an autocorrect of county to country. I am saying Maricopa typically goes D by double digits in a decade. Not the US at large, lmao.

[cherry mandarin]

In 2022 exit polling, AZ was split about evenly between college graduates and non-graduates, while NV’s white voter pool was 2-1 non college voters.

I'd take it  this *could* be  good news  for  the Republicans  in NV, right?

As to PA and MI, which *other* states "best" represent the idea of a long-term swing state to you?

Well, that's the thing—I think  it's  a  flawed concept  to begin with, because  each state, by definition (in  my own mind, at least) is *always* shifting and drifting—either  rightward, or  toward  the left  instead.

But, to answer  your question,  I'd suggest  examples  such as  FL (pre-2018), NC, NV, MN, NH, ME, NM, WI  as  some of  the states  that are moving  the *least* quickly  of all—though, admittedly, some of them  merely  sit  on  the periphery  of "swing state" status—that is, if  they  even  count  at all. Examples  such as MN, NH, WI, NV at *certain* points  had  their  competitive air  obscured  by  Obama's dominance  during  his 2 elections, but  they quickly reverted  to their "normal" state of affairs, so to speak, not long  after  his departure  from  the top  of  the Democratic ticket.

that was an autocorrect. I was trying to argue that Maricopa will usually vote D by double digits. Not our country, overall.

I'm sorry—that was *my* mistake, not yours. I simply misread  your comment, my apologies!

Though I'm still skeptical that Maricopa will shift *as* quickly as you're suggesting, its trend  does  indeed  appear to be  leftward-leaning, over  the long-term.

[Cyrusman]

As an Arizonan, I have extreme doubts that Trump will win here. Will it be close? Of course. But it’s increasingly becoming more difficult for the GOP to win statewide, and Trump is just about the worst possible candidate to run. Add Kari into the mix, and you have a radioactive combo representing the GOP.

The same people who voted Sinema, Biden, Kellyx2, Hobbs, Fontes aren’t suddenly going for Trump. The state’s moderate/McCain base has all but abandoned the Trump wing. You can see this around Paradise Valley/Scottsdale (AZ-01), where new residents aren’t just driving this — it’s actual persuasion/Rs hemorrhaging what used to be their core educated, affluent voters. Schweikert will lose the district, and in turn, the Ds at the top of the ticket will again carry Maricopa. Pima is going to be landslide territory.

Where do they make up the votes? Biden probably wins by a point or two, but AZ increasingly breaks against Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don’t see it staying a permanent swing state like a MI/PA and instead goes the way of CO/VA in 10 years as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there’s the ball game.

The GOP should obviously still try here, but IMO, the Rust Belt + NV remains the more sensible path to victory. The AZ GOP relied much more heavily on a white collar educated voter than NV GOP, who can tap into a less educated white voter pool. In the 2022 exit polls of white voters, AZ was about split evenly between college graduate and non-graduates, while NV was 2-1 non college white voters. (The AZ white college graduates broke 20% or more for the Ds…)

What makes you think all the people from moving into Maricopa are left leaning, though? They are a mix of people.
Also, what if its actually not Trump? Whos' the last non Donald Trump endorsed GOP candidate to run a statewide race in AZ, other than Ducey?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As an Arizonan, I have extreme doubts that Trump will win here. Will it be close? Of course. But it’s increasingly becoming more difficult for the GOP to win statewide, and Trump is just about the worst possible candidate to run. Add Kari into the mix, and you have a radioactive combo representing the GOP.

The same people who voted Sinema, Biden, Kellyx2, Hobbs, Fontes aren’t suddenly going for Trump. The state’s moderate/McCain base has all but abandoned the Trump wing. You can see this around Paradise Valley/Scottsdale (AZ-01), where new residents aren’t just driving this — it’s actual persuasion/Rs hemorrhaging what used to be their core educated, affluent voters. Schweikert will lose the district, and in turn, the Ds at the top of the ticket will again carry Maricopa. Pima is going to be landslide territory.

Where do they make up the votes? Biden probably wins by a point or two, but AZ increasingly breaks against Rs in future elections. Tbh, I don’t see it staying a permanent swing state like a MI/PA and instead goes the way of CO/VA in 10 years as Maricopa continues to grow and become bluer. By then, Ds could be winning the county by double digits, and there’s the ball game.

The GOP should obviously still try here, but IMO, the Rust Belt + NV remains the more sensible path to victory. The AZ GOP relied much more heavily on a white collar educated voter than NV GOP, who can tap into a less educated white voter pool. In the 2022 exit polls of white voters, AZ was about split evenly between college graduate and non-graduates, while NV was 2-1 non college white voters. (The AZ white college graduates broke 20% or more for the Ds…)

What makes you think all the people from moving into Maricopa are left leaning, though? They are a mix of people.
Also, what if its actually not Trump? Whos' the last non Donald Trump endorsed GOP candidate to run a statewide race in AZ, other than Ducey?

Kimberly Yee and Tom Horne I believe

[cherry mandarin]

all those people who're moving to Maricopa are left-leaning

They aren't "all" left-leaning, but they *predominantly* are. Furthermore, existing voters  who *already* live  there  are beginning to vote  more and more Democratic. Population growth  is also occurring  due to  the rapid aging-up  of  youth  in  that county  into  its electorate, as  its median age  falls  below  that of  other places  nationwide, and  older voters  make up  a smaller share  of  its overall population.

[cherry mandarin]

Kimberly Yee, and Tom Horne

Opinions  on  Olawakandi's long-winded rant  against you  yesterday?

[HAMMERS]

if you meant easiest as in his shortest possible path, mathematically speaking (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path)

In which case, they're *all* equally "easy", as Trump's path requires him to gain 35 (or 34, depending  on  how you count it) Biden EVs. That's what I was confused by.

Yes I guess they're all equally "easy", in terms of mathematical "length".    That's why I was confused by the OP's use of the word "easiest", rather than "likeliest". 

[The Mikado]

I would just like to point out that I think it matters that the Georgia Republican Party is generally more competent and serious than the Arizona Republican Party. I know people tend to overlook that sort of thing but I think it matters that the AZ GOP is going to keep doubling and quadrupling and octupling down on ridiculous insane stuff that is driving the AZ voting base towards Democrats anyway while the GA GOP at least acts like it has a problem and is trying to do something about it.

[Cyrusman]

I would just like to point out that I think it matters that the Georgia Republican Party is generally more competent and serious than the Arizona Republican Party. I know people tend to overlook that sort of thing but I think it matters that the AZ GOP is going to keep doubling and quadrupling and octupling down on ridiculous insane stuff that is driving the AZ voting base towards Democrats anyway while the GA GOP at least acts like it has a problem and is trying to do something about it.

I second this. AZ GOP leadership sucks. GA had a solid slate of candidates, other than Walker. Curious to see how Jeff DeWit does. Kelli Ward was as bad as one could get.

[Cyrusman]

all those people who're moving to Maricopa are left-leaning

They aren't "all" left-leaning, but they *predominantly* are. Furthermore, existing voters  who *already* live  there  are beginning to vote  more and more Democratic. Population growth  is also occurring  due to  the rapid aging-up  of  youth  in  that county  into  its electorate, as  its median age  falls  below  that of  other places  nationwide, and  older voters  make up  a smaller share  of  its overall population.

what evidence is there of this? Not saying they are right leaning, but more so a wash. Lots of retires, and  dissatisfied right leaning Californians move to AZ too. Its not just young, left leaning recent college graduates.
It's still a concealed carry carry state, very tough on illegal immigration, not a big environmental state and has a very wild wild west culture feel. Doesn't feel like somewhere that appealing for progressive, liberal minded people.

[cherry mandarin]

It presumes that his votes would've gone to Biden instead, though. I'm sure that's going to be true for  some, but not enough that it'll actually swing a state. Like Nader, he might turn out a ton of people who otherwise simply wouldn't have voted at all.

Why did you edit  my own post? Please  revise it  or  make  your own  post or comment  if you want to say  something that I never wrote  in the first place, to begin with.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Here is the most Likely Scenario if Trump is the Republican Nominee...



Trump isn't going to win Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

So Trumps chances are basically non-existent.

What a weird, nonsensical map.

[here2view]

I think it goes through GA+WI and then either AZ or PA.

[cherry mandarin]

I think it goes through GA+WI and then either AZ or PA.

Not Nevada?

[cherry mandarin]

I can't see Trump taking Minnesota while also dropping Georgia. I can imagine him winning Minnesota but losing Arizona, too, though.

Well, why is that?

[LostInOhio]

Saying Trump will win Minnesota is like saying Biden will win Kansas. I remember people predicting red Minnesota in 2020, and I’m never sure why?

[TML]

Saying Trump will win Minnesota is like saying Biden will win Kansas. I remember people predicting red Minnesota in 2020, and I’m never sure why?

Minnesota was close in 2016, but that was due to a relatively large share of third-party voters. The 2020 results indicated that the lion’s share of third party voters from 2016 went to Biden.

[cherry mandarin]

Saw people who predicted that Minnesota could go red back in 2020, and I didn't know why?

Because Trump lost MN by 1.5% in 2016 and it swung *heavily* rightward, which  some people  thought  could continue  again.

Also, the comparison's inaccurate; Clinton lost KS by 20% and Biden by 15%. Even  in 2020, Trump "only" lost MN by 7% in comparison.

due to a relatively large share of third-party voters. the lion’s share of 2016 third-party supporters  voted for Biden, though.

Could Jill Stein = Jesse Ventura = Cornel West? Lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here is the most Likely Scenario if Trump is the Republican Nominee...



Trump isn't going to win Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

So Trumps chances are basically non-existent.

What a weird, nonsensical map.

I can't see Trump winning Minnesota and losing Georgia.  I can see him winning Minnesota and losing Arizona though.

MN is going 52(46 D with Klobuchar