GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024

[Cyrusman]

WI is unlikely to flip back to Trump.

all Trump Worshippers

Imagine  calling me a "Trump worshipper" lmao. Anyways,

I outlined one, but it's pretty unrealistic.

I think Trump could definitely get  any of NV, GA, AZ back though. And he's certainly the favourite  right now  in NC, if not a big one.

He also has a shot at flipping NH and ME-AL for sure, even if he's a significant underdog in both  as of  this moment.

NV, GA, AZ have shifted to the left in recent Elections. Republicans haven't won a Federal Race in Nevada (either for President or Senate) since former Senator Dean Heller beat then Congresswoman Shelley Berkley in 2012.

The Demographic Shifts in GA, AZ coupled with Presidential Turnout makes it almost impossible for a Republican Presidential Candidate to win there.

AZ unlike GA hasn't had a major demographic shift. You don't have a ton of black people migrating there. Its a very libertarianish
Trump's toxic mouth and bashing McCain turned off enough moderate white republicans to where he barely lost the state by 10,000 votes.
Not very hard to see AZ flipping. Problem the AZ GOP has is they can't seem to nominate a "normal" candidate for anything recently. Lake is a toxic, loudmouth, crude candidate who barely lost by the skin of her teeth.
Had the GOP had a guy like Joe Lombardo in AZ for governor, i think they would have won by 2-4 points. Lombardo isn't even anything special, just "normal".

[wbrocks67]

a red wave year.

Which version of 2022 did you happen to live through, my friend?

It was a Republican year in tons of places. The NPV was still R+2-3, and in places where there wasn't a competitive race, Dems did pretty meh to badly, especially in places where they basically gave up (ex: Florida)

Trump lost AZ in 2020 and that was *before* January 6th and everything that followed. Not sure how anyone would think he would then be more likely to win it since then, especially after 2022. Once again, Rs had something like a 7-9 pt registration advantage in turnout and Kari Lake *still* lost. That reg advantage is not going to be the same in a presidential year.

[cherry mandarin]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss  was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be  on  the ticket.

...

[DS0816]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

I'm conservative but this is vastly unrealistic.   He's not going to get MN and MI both LOL!   MI was a 1-off fluke, in 2016.   Not going to happen again.   So right off the bat, there are 25 votes to subtract from this unrealistic scenario.

We disagree.

😊

[cg41386]

PA is harder to flip than GA, AZ, and WI: it's just a larger state with massive Democrat-bastion Philadelphia.

Thing is, all 3 states  already voted  within 1% of  one another  in 2020. But Atlanta and Phoenix metros are both booming in size while also moving sharply to the left, whereas Philadelphia is growing at a far smaller pace, and crucially, the city itself is quickly becoming redder by the year.

as of now, NH is looking unlikely

I agree.

Philadelphia isn't "quickly becoming redder by the year," and more importantly, the suburbs have zoomed left.

[cg41386]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss
 was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be
 on  the ticket.

...

Florida and New York mostly.

[cherry mandarin]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss
 was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be
 on  the ticket.

...

Florida and New York mostly.

Exactly; ~2 states  out of 50 in total.

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

[Cyrusman]

a red wave year.

Which version of 2022 did you happen to live through, my friend?

It was a Republican year in tons of places. The NPV was still R+2-3, and in places where there wasn't a competitive race, Dems did pretty meh to badly, especially in places where they basically gave up (ex: Florida)

Trump lost AZ in 2020 and that was *before* January 6th and everything that followed. Not sure how anyone would think he would then be more likely to win it since then, especially after 2022. Once again, Rs had something like a 7-9 pt registration advantage in turnout and Kari Lake *still* lost. That reg advantage is not going to be the same in a presidential year.

Personally, I don't think Trump is more likely to win AZ than in 2020, but I don't think Biden is more likely to win or improve on it either. To me its a true tossup. Biden's lost quite a bit of support from the fall of 2020 in AZ and is no longer candidate Biden. AZ has/had a lot of seniors who were turned off by Trumps Covid response as were white seniors in FL, but AZ didn't have the right leaning Hispanic base to counter. I'm sure Cindy McCain's fall endorsement helped "a little" with some suburban moms and there was no 3rd party vote, which a state like AZ is definitely know to get third party votes. I think Johnson cleared 4% in 2016.
AZ will be a razor thin state, IMO. If the GOP had a Tim Scott for example going against Biden, I'd be comfortable calling it tilt R, but we know that won't be the matchup.

[cg41386]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

Well yeah, it's likely going to not move much in either direction. You act like it's enough to make a difference... it isn't.

[cherry mandarin]

If the GOP had a Tim Scott going up against Biden, I'd be comfortable calling it tilt R

Martha McSally lost it twice in recent years. So did Blake Masters, despite actually running a low-key decently strong campaign. What makes you think the Tim Scott-type of national candidate would do better than those failures?

[cherry mandarin]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

Well yeah, it's likely going to not move much in either direction. You act like it's enough to make a difference... it isn't.

PA is so big, and so close, that just about *anything* in a city the size of Philadelphia proper  is likely going to impact statewide races there.

We saw Philly  not just  trend, but  also  swing, toward Trump  between 2016 and 2020. As I have elaborated elsewhere, it appears there would be  a decent amount of evidence that would suggest this may be the case  again  in 2024. I agree that rapidly growing and Democratizing suburbs  present a really big problem  for Trump, but  that  will be (at least  partially) cancelled out  by  the trends  taking place  in urban Philadelphia, I should think.

[cg41386]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

Well yeah, it's likely going to not move much in either direction. You act like it's enough to make a difference... it isn't.

PA is so big, and so close, that just about *anything* in a city the size of Philadelphia proper  is likely going to impact statewide races there.

We saw Philly  not just  trend, but  also  swing, toward Trump  between 2016 and 2020. As I have elaborated elsewhere, it appears there would be  a decent amount of evidence that would suggest this may be the case  again  in 2024. I agree that rapidly growing and Democratizing suburbs  present a really big problem  for Trump, but  that  will be (at least  partially) cancelled out  by  the trends  taking place  in urban Philadelphia, I should think.

The end result in that hypothetical would be roughly the same, then. Not to mention, Trump is probably maxed out in many of the rurals.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say, too.

You're still exaggerating the trend. It's not going to make much of a difference.

[cherry mandarin]

Trump is probably maxed out in many of the rurals.

Personally, I think he still has *some* room  to grow, at least. Whether he can turn  that potential  into actual votes  remains to be seen, but I'm of the mind that  that ceiling  is, indeed, there  for his taking.

[Mr. Smith]

JFF: GA+WI+NV+Maine to 269

The state legislatures throw it to Trump.

[cherry mandarin]

JFF: GA+WI+NV+Maine to 269

It's an interesting thought, but I doubt ME turns red  all while AZ, PA,  MI, MN, and (especially) NH each stay blue.

And then the state legislatures will just throw it

State legislators??

[HAMMERS]

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?

Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss  was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be  on  the ticket.

...

You already answered me about what you meant by "easiest" but I was originally wondering, if you meant easiest, as in shortest path mathematically (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path), or easiest as in most likely (which you confirmed you meant).

[cherry mandarin]

if you meant easiest as in his shortest possible path, mathematically speaking (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path)

In which case, they're *all* equally "easy", as Trump's path requires him to gain 35 (or 34, depending  on  how you count it) Biden EVs. That's what I was confused by.

[MT Treasurer]

I really think NV + WI + PA on top of their 2020 states for the narrowest of narrow (270-268) victories is their path of least resistance and an overall underrated scenario. GA might be close in that scenario, but I don’t think Rs can count on it.

I’m really not sure why PA is being viewed as far less winnable for Rs than WI.

[Cyrusman]

If the GOP had a Tim Scott going up against Biden, I'd be comfortable calling it tilt R

Martha McSally lost it twice in recent years. So did Blake Masters, despite actually running a low-key decently strong campaign. What makes you think the Tim Scott-type of national candidate would do better than those failures?

Those are senate races. Marth McSally wasn't going up against a very unpopular president who's approvals in AZ are probably below his national approvals.
I have no idea how you though Blake Masters ran a low-key strong campaign. He came off as a far right weirdo, freak who was SEVERLY outspent. Even if he was polished in interviews, politics is all perception, and masters even looks and sounds creepy.  I think even Mitch McConnelll threw in the white towel and spent his money elsewhere.

AZ is still a right leaning state and Biden is anything but popular there. He just isn't Trump, whos despised. Put a sane, more "generic" republican and I would bet on them beating Biden.
I don't consider any of the republicans who ran in AZ last year normal except Tom Horn and Kimberly Yee.
Scott to me comes off as probably the closest bet in terms of who in running in the GOP currently. Either him or Christie.

[The Mikado]

Trump absolutely HAS to get back both of GA and PA to stand a real chance of winning. Both of those states are totally winnable for him of course, but I am really skeptical of any Trump map that doesn't feature both of them.

[cherry mandarin]

Even if he was polished in interviews, politics is all perception

Wut.

AZ is still a right leaning state

It really isn't. Doug Ducey was the last Republican to win a noteworthy statewide race  in AZ, and he's long been put to pasture, politically speaking.

him or Christie.

Do you have  any idea  what  the modern AZ GOP is like? Hell, if Joe Arpaio ran  as  an independent  he'd get  more  votes  than  Chris Christie.

[pbrower2a]

Even if he was polished in interviews, politics is all perception

Wut.

AZ is still a right leaning state

It really isn't. Doug Ducey was the last Republican to win a noteworthy statewide race  in AZ, and he's long been put to pasture, politically speaking.

him or Christie.

Do you have  any idea  what  the modern AZ GOP is like? Hell, if Joe Arpaio ran  as  an independent  he'd get  more  votes  than  Chris Christie.

It sounds much like the Michigan GOP.

The fraudulent electors scandal is going to burn the GOP in every state in which it was tried.

[Vosem]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

No, Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

I think it's kind of difficult to say which of the three of WI/MI/PA is going to be the most favorable for Trump. Assuming a decent Sunbelt performance, he needs at least one of them to win. PA has the best Democratic state party, while WI has historically had the best Republican one; WI probably has the best long-term demographic changes for Democrats, while it's MI for Repubicans. PA has a really consistent tiny Republican trend; it hasn't trended left at any election since 2004.

There is absolutely no path to victory without at least one of those three states. (Two out of three is the GOP has won probably; one out of the three would've been enough in 2016/2020, but Sunbelt trends aren't great and might not be enough for 2016).

My pretty strong guess is that AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't really seem to be all that bad for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are pretty culturally in tune with where Trump is. GA is still getting blacker, still has an unusually educated Republican base with more room to fall in principle, and also is a place where Trump has an unusually bad reputation. Quite plausibly AZ/PA/WI is easier than GA.

(That said even a tiny relative decline in AA turnout could absolutely be lethal for GA Democrats.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

No, Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

I think it's kind of difficult to say which of the three of WI/MI/PA is going to be the most favorable for Trump. Assuming a decent Sunbelt performance, he needs at least one of them to win. PA has the best Democratic state party, while WI has historically had the best Republican one; WI probably has the best long-term demographic changes for Democrats, while it's MI for Repubicans. PA has a really consistent tiny Republican trend; it hasn't trended left at any election since 2004.

There is absolutely no path to victory without at least one of those three states. (Two out of three is the GOP has won probably; one out of the three would've been enough in 2016/2020, but Sunbelt trends aren't great and might not be enough for 2016).

My pretty strong guess is that AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't really seem to be all that bad for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are pretty culturally in tune with where Trump is. GA is still getting blacker, still has an unusually educated Republican base with more room to fall in principle, and also is a place where Trump has an unusually bad reputation. Quite plausibly AZ/PA/WI is easier than GA.

(That said even a tiny relative decline in AA turnout could absolutely be lethal for GA Democrats.)

White females in PA H race and WI and FL voted 52/42 that's the difference African American along with white females make up D vote Latinos and blkss are only 30 percentage pts of population


Once again Vosem is wrong In Tammy Duckworth white women voted 60/40 for Duckworth