GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024

[cherry mandarin]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

[2016]

Here is the most Likely Scenario if Trump is the Republican Nominee...



Trump isn't going to win Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

So Trumps chances are basically non-existent.

[cherry mandarin]

Trump isn't going to win Nevada, North Carolina

But he WILL carry MN and MI, under your outlined scenario?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

[Redban]

GA, AZ, and WI, based on the narrowness of each state in 2020

I feel PA is harder to flip than GA, AZ, and WI: it's just a larger state with massive Democrat-bastion Philadelphia .

NV can flip, but there are so few electoral votes.

NV + NH is the one out-of-box idea, but as of now, NH is looking unlikely

[wbrocks67]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

If Trump is the nominee, not sure how AZ especially would flip back. GA and WI are unlikely too.

[2016]

Trump isn't going to win Nevada, North Carolina

But he WILL carry MN and MI, under your outlined scenario?

Since all you Trump Worshippers wanted a winning scenario I outlined one and that's pretty unrealistic.

[cherry mandarin]

PA is harder to flip than GA, AZ, and WI: it's just a larger state with massive Democrat-bastion Philadelphia.

Thing is, all 3 states  already voted  within 1% of  one another  in 2020. But Atlanta and Phoenix metros are both booming in size while also moving sharply to the left, whereas Philadelphia is growing at a far smaller pace, and crucially, the city itself is quickly becoming redder by the year.

as of now, NH is looking unlikely

I agree.

[cherry mandarin]

WI is unlikely to flip back to Trump.

What makes you say this?

all Trump Worshippers

Imagine  calling me a "Trump worshipper" lmao. Anyways,

I outlined one, but it's pretty unrealistic.

I think Trump could definitely get  any of NV, GA, AZ back though. And he's certainly the favourite  right now  in NC, if not a big one.

He also has a shot at flipping NH and ME-AL for sure, even if he's a significant underdog in both  as of  this moment.

[DS0816]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

[wbrocks67]

WI is unlikely to flip back to Trump.

What makes you say this?

all Trump Worshippers

Imagine  calling me a "Trump worshipper" lmao. Anyways,

I outlined one, but it's pretty unrealistic.

I think Trump could definitely get  any of NV, GA, AZ back though. And he's certainly the favourite  right now  in NC, if not a big one.

He also has a shot at flipping NH and ME-AL for sure, even if he's a significant underdog in both  as of  this moment.

2022 and 2023 elections in WI.

[Vosem]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

If Trump is the nominee, not sure how AZ especially would flip back. GA and WI are unlikely too.

Kari Lake won 50% of the vote (...more than Trump's 49%, actually). Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back if the campaign goes in certain directions, or even just off third-party machinations; in fact my guess is that it's the easiest of the three. (I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago, frankly, though before someone notes this I'll note that of course the Hispanics there are not Cubans.)

I agree that this is the path of least resistance, though you could throw PA or MI into the mix. ("Any three of GA/WI/AZ/PA/MI", where those three seem easiest but I think it is possible that GA moves so far left that PA or MI need to sub for it.) NV is not big enough to matter. All Trump 2020 states must be held, though I think unless the election is a real Democratic landslide only NC will be seriously contested anyway. You could phrase that sentence as any four of NC/GA/WI/AZ/PA/MI is the GOP path.

MN is an interesting one because -- like IA -- it has relatively high rural white fertility relative to the rest of the Midwest, such that I kind of expect it to trend right throughout the 2030s as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point. But 2024 is way too soon for that, and the Twin Cities growing relatively fast by Midwestern standards probably means it will trend left, as does the general 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

[cherry mandarin]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

Which ones  do you think  will prove to be  unnecessary  to  his ultimate victory? MN and NH, I assume?

2022 and 2023 elections in WI.

Historically, off-year and midterm elections are a LOT less predictive of the upcoming presidential race  than  the previous cycle  itself, though.

[2016]

WI is unlikely to flip back to Trump.

all Trump Worshippers

Imagine  calling me a "Trump worshipper" lmao. Anyways,

I outlined one, but it's pretty unrealistic.

I think Trump could definitely get  any of NV, GA, AZ back though. And he's certainly the favourite  right now  in NC, if not a big one.

He also has a shot at flipping NH and ME-AL for sure, even if he's a significant underdog in both  as of  this moment.

NV, GA, AZ have shifted to the left in recent Elections. Republicans haven't won a Federal Race in Nevada (either for President or Senate) since former Senator Dean Heller beat then Congresswoman Shelley Berkley in 2012.

The Demographic Shifts in GA, AZ coupled with Presidential Turnout makes it almost impossible for a Republican Presidential Candidate to win there.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

If Trump is the nominee, not sure how AZ especially would flip back. GA and WI are unlikely too.

AZ almost voted for Kari Lake, so I don't think it would be shocking if Trump won it. GA was also extremely close. WI seems least likely of those 3 to flip.

I don't think Trump will win any of the states but in this scenario that one seems most likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They don't have one , Lol Klobuchar is gonna win and Biden is gonna win MN 52/46 with George Floyd and Daunte Wrigjt

[cherry mandarin]

Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back just off the back of certain third-party maneouvres

Do you think Kyrsten Sinema might have any bearing on the AZ presidential result, by the way?

I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago

What makes you say so?

All Trump 2020 states must be held, but only NC will be seriously contested unless the election becomes a veritable Democratic landslide

Agreed.

MN boasts relatively high rural white fertility; throughout the 2030s, as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point

What did you mean  by  this, specifically?

the Twin Cities growing quickly means it's probably going to trend leftward

Yeah, I suppose  this  sounds  somewhat  plausible, reasonable, realistic and broadly fathomable.

the 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

You think that's actually going to CONTINUE in 2024? Do you mean  relative to 2020 president, or the 2022 midterm races?

WI and PA still trended  leftward  from 2020, by the way.

[DS0816]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

Which ones  do you think  will prove to be  unnecessary  to  his ultimate victory? MN and NH, I assume?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=557983.0

[cherry mandarin]

NV has shifted  toward the left  in recent elections.

What? The last time NV experienced a leftward swing (for President, I mean) was 2008.

Down-ballot, though, NV's rightward tilt is *even more* evident. For instance, the GOP carried the statewide House PV by  over 4 points  in 2022.

Republicans haven't won a Federal Race since 2012.

In 2022, Nevada featured the ONLY incumbent governor OR senator *in the country* to get toppled, and of course it was a Republican defeating Steve Sisolak.

Presidential Turnout

As opposed to turnout for state-level races, which has helped Mark Kelly (multiple times), Kyrsten Sinema, Katie Hobbs, and Raphael Warnock (multiple times) win?

WI seems like the least likely one to flip.

Why's that?

I don't think Trump will win but that one is the likeliest of all.

Which one?

[wbrocks67]

Only one I see is GA, AZ, and WI flipping back.

If Trump is the nominee, not sure how AZ especially would flip back. GA and WI are unlikely too.

AZ almost voted for Kari Lake, so I don't think it would be shocking if Trump won it. GA was also extremely close. WI seems least likely of those 3 to flip.

I don't think Trump will win any of the states but in this scenario that one seems most likely.

AZ almost voted for Kari Lake - in a red wave year. The fact that Kari Lake still lost with such a GOP turnout advantage is pretty indicative to me that AZ is likely a tough sell for GOP than in 2024 when turnout is better for Ds.

[cherry mandarin]

a red wave year.

Which version of 2022 did you happen to live through, my friend?

[Vosem]

Pretty easy to see AZ flipping back just off the back of certain third-party maneouvres

Do you think Kyrsten Sinema might have any bearing on the AZ presidential result, by the way?

Probably not. What I mean is that Arizona is historically a pretty decent state for third-party totals, and the Hobbs v. Lake race was unusual in not having a third-party option.

I would be surprised if GA/WI don't trend Democratic in 2024, but AZ might well go either direction. Many of the demographic trends there seem similar to FL a decade ago

What makes you say so?

Unusually old and unusually Hispanic in-migration; it's also one of the few states recording increases in religious observance, together with FL, which usually requires both factors to be present. I think the reason AZ hasn't gone in the direction of FL is just that the local GOP is not very competent, while the FLGOP is unusually competent, and this is mostly about institutions.

All Trump 2020 states must be held, but only NC will be seriously contested unless the election becomes a veritable Democratic landslide

Agreed.

MN boasts relatively high rural white fertility; throughout the 2030s, as parent/non-parent becomes a larger sticking point

What did you mean  by  this, specifically?

Over the past few cycles parents have usually trended Republican, while people in the same age bracket without children have trended Democratic. I can go find a county-by-county map, but in general Plains states tend to have higher fertility, with more people becoming parents, than Midwestern states do, and rural MN and IA have patterns that look more like ND and SD than WI and IL. I think this means that the state will eventually trend Republican.

the Twin Cities growing quickly means it's probably going to trend leftward

Yeah, I suppose  this  sounds  somewhat  plausible, reasonable, realistic and broadly fathomable.

the 2022 Midwestern leftward trend.

You think that's actually going to CONTINUE in 2024? Do you mean  relative to 2020 president, or the 2022 midterm races?

WI and PA still trended leftward
from 2020, by the way.

Relative to 2020-POTUS. Most of the Midwest trended Democratic in 2022, and even apart from that it's now trended Republican at multiple consecutive cycles and so is overdue for reversion to the mean. Wisconsin and Ohio have been ruled by Republicans for a while and seem to be experiencing some backlash over abortion. I think MI/PA look iffier, and in particular that the MI outcome from 2022 has patterns which seem pretty iffy for Democrats.

To wit: MI, unlike most places, had an extremely good turnout environment for Democrats, and one of the worst Republican campaigns in the nation. But the generic ballot -- for the US House, and state Senate and state House -- was around D+1-2. This is hard to interpret, because the combined total for state Supreme Court candidates was D+19, and no statewide race was any worse than D+8. But the former sort of implies a rightward trend, and I think in general a new trifecta usually causes backlash.

I'm not predicting this happening, but one 2024 Election Night surprise that would make me go, "oh, wait, in hindsight that actually that makes sense" would be MI voting right of WI. Madison has much more impressive left-wing growth than Ann Arbor, and Milwaukee is not declining the way Detroit is.

[cherry mandarin]

Unusually old and unusually Hispanic in-migration

Why are unusually old and unusually Hispanic people  going there, I wonder?

the local GOP is not very competent, while the FLGOP is unusually competent

Surely there has to be MORE at play, given that we're talking about the difference  between  losing last year's gubernatorial election (despite a universally reviled, weak candidate who refused to even debate her opponent) and trouncing a well-known and well-liked former governor by 20 points (despite low spending and the incumbent's much-publicized national ambitions)?

it has trended Republican at multiple consecutive cycles, and so is overdue for some reversion to the mean.

With  trends that are sufficiently consistent  to  last  for  a number of  cycles  in a row, reversion "to the mean" usually  actually  doesn't occur.

Ohio

2022 was mostly a Tim Ryan thing, and partly a J.D. Vance/toxic and divisive primary, featuring a recount/weak candidates factor. I'm fairly confident in saying Republicans' struggles  in that regard  were  isolated to  last year, though  obviously  that doesn't help them  take Sherrod Brown out, either.

Wisconsin

Tony Evers faced a very competitive race, while Ron Johnson cruised to re-election by comparison, despite the GOP collapse region-wide.

MI/PA look iffier

Are you saying Biden has a chance to carry OH in 2024, or just that it's more likely to *trend* D than MI and PA are? What do you think their margins are likely to be, by the way?

in particular, the MI outcome  from 2022  has  patterns  which seem iffy  for Democrats.

How so?

unlike most places

What makes you say this?

Last year, MI saw an extremely good turnout environment  for Democrats

What do you mean  by  that?

the former would generally tend to imply some sort of rightward trend

Why's that?

a potential 2024 Election Night surprise that might actually make some sense would be MI voting to the right of WI. Right now, Milwaukee is not declining as quickly as Detroit.

Detroit's getting redder  more quickly  than Milwaukee is, though, but that's already factored into  our calculations  here.

[HAMMERS]

Not sure what you mean by "easiest".   Easiest, in therms of mathematics?   Or do you mean most likely to happen?   I think the question should have been phrased as "likeliest" scenario. 

[HAMMERS]

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?

Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.

I'm conservative but this is vastly unrealistic.   He's not going to get MN and MI both LOL!   MI was a 1-off fluke, in 2016.   Not going to happen again.   So right off the bat, there are 25 votes to subtract from this unrealistic scenario.