2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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What time are we expecting the remaining calls?

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Is there any chance at all that Gideon wins? I can't figure out who the remaining vote in Maine will favor.

You gotta think Collins needs to be in the 47-48 range for that to be likely for Gideon to win on IRV, although I'll defer to anyone who knows more

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Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

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The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

Your numbers as to how those ballots favor Gideon are extreme. In fact they might even favor Collins. But def not Gideon 60%

What? Savage is a progressive. Almost all of hers are going to Gideon unless they leave it blank.

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That's far too early from Gideon and I hope there isn't reason to regret it in the near future.

I don't see the point of this from Gideon. She should at least wait to see if RCV is triggered.

The concession isn't binding. She still wins if the RCV somehow saves her.

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They're mostly from Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton where Biden is getting 72%, 83%, 85% respectively.

Hmm, according to NYT there are over 200k ballots left in Georgia.

To overcome Trump's 87k vote lead, Biden needs around 72% of the vote.

This could very well happen, folks.

O sh**t, it might happen

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Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

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So does Gross actually still have a shot?

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So to sum this up:

- Biden wins NV (by an underwhelming margin, to the right of the nation)
- Biden wins AZ
- Biden wins GA very narrowly
- Trump probably wins NC very narrowly
- PA will go down to the wire, with Biden very slightly favored?
- Trump will win AK

Trump is pretty much toast.

Senate:

- Sullivan will win AK
- Tillis will win by a point or a little less in NC, outperforming Trump
- Collins has won in ME
- McSally is toast in AZ

Meaning the Senate will be 50R/48D when all is said and done, with the GA runoffs deciding Senate control.

Is this accurate? Curious about PA in particular.

Yes, other than Stats Twitter is much more confident than you than Biden wins PA.

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CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

No, he needs to win them 59,500 - 30,500 (~66%) if he's making up a 29,000 margin.

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So why did all of these states say they'd have results yesterday, or at least during the night, but I now wake up on Thursday and all of them are in the same place they were at midnight?

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324348271003897857

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896?s=19

Ok we win Arizona and Nevada for 270.

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Will be getting Biden's victory speech tonight?

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My back-of-the-napkin estimates say that Gross needs 70-75% of the remaining votes to win Alaska. That seems far-fetched, but what do I know?

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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324698927136997377

Silver needs to go away forever and stop talking about politics. He is a freaking joke.

And you are...?

My prediction was 10000x closer to the result than Silver. He said Trump would lose Florida by 2 and he won by 4. He said Ohio was a tie and Trump won by 8. Silver can shut the f*** up

S-N-2-9-oh-for-three

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Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

My favorite two-name county has to be Deaf Smith County.

Pronounced like "Deef Smith" apparently...

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https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1324852450109624322?s=20

In the words of Bill O'Reily, "DO IT LIVE!"

Georgia:
Lean Warnock -> Likely Warnock
Lean Perdue -> Lean Ossoff

And more to come!

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So is Biden gonna speak?

If the networks would quit being scared of Trump rioters and call the outstanding states, sure.

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Maricopa: Biden +31K, Trump +38K

Call it.

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Can we please just call it this is so painfully obvious by now

There was a time when the media wasn't afraid of upsetting the president, but in 2020 that's just not how it is.

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From the 538 blog:

NOV. 6, 9:03 PM
Our partners at ABC News have learned that Philadelphia will have no further updates on its vote totals tonight. This may essentially eliminate any realistic chance of a race projection in Pennsylvania tonight because Philadelphia is the most Democratic-leaning area in the state, and a vote dump of some size from there could expand the margin to a point where it would be very difficult for Trump to overcome Biden’s statewide lead. As things stand, Biden leads by about 21,700 votes, or 0.32 percentage points, with fewer than 100,000 mail ballots and around 100,000 provisional ballots left to count.

Time to go to bed, folks.  It won't be called tonight.

Ridiculous. The networks would have called any race in this situation if the loser weren't Donald Trump.

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The media is unwittingly (I hope) stoking a major, violent Trumpist backlash by letting the "uncertainty" fester so long. It's been obvious that Biden is the winner for about 60 hours, and inexcusable not to call the result for about 24 hours. What's it going to take?

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"The elections chair in Erie County, Pa., said about 1,500 provisional ballots were cast there, and they’ve been about evenly split Trump-Biden. Biden’s lead will change little."-Trip Gabriel, NYT

What is a provisional ballot?

Someone shows up a precinct and isn't on the voter rolls. The person insists they are registered and should be on there, but the poll worker can't find their name on the list. OK, they get a provisional ballot and can fill it out, and if later it can be determined that the person was a valid voter after all, then they can count the vote, but it takes time and research.

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Call Arizona.
Call Nevada.
Call Pennsylvania.