2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Badger]

I think Pete Sessions is now more vulnerable than Atlas thinks. This race has really changed since over a year ago. This thing has gone from Likely R to Weak Lean R. Either Allred or Salerno will have a good chance to knock down Sessions, though Allred will probably be the challenger. For Pete's sake (no pun intended) Democrats won the Dallas county part of this district this primary over republicans, just the slim part of Collin put them over the top. Also, GE results in Texas almost always turn out to be a little more democrat friendly than primary ballot matchups. I'm encouraged by this result, and might start knocking on doors later this fall in my precinct, since I believe it could make a difference, especially since my precinct went for Sessions in this primary over democrats and Trump by underwhelming margins in the teens. Margins here are supposed to be 40 points or so for the GOP. And it is starting to reduce, even slightly so downballot. My precinct also finally got a Democratic chairperson here after a long absence of one, enthusiasm folks.

I have to admit, I'm having a hard time envisioning a Clinton 16 sessions 18 voter. Or any Clinton 2016 voter supporting any Texas Republican Congress crater with the possible exception of will Hurd

[Badger]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Wow.

These numbers don't include self-funding, right? Does that change the equation here does anyone know?

[Badger]

By the way, I am not necessarily opposed to Pelosi being replaced. But if she is, it should be done after a proper debate by the whole Democratic House membership, and not pre-determined by a few renegade members who already made their decision before the vote.

Come on. We all know candidates like this guy and Connor lamb will, if the chips are down would support Pelosi rather than hand chamber control back to the Republicans. It's just a good campaign tactic considering that Pelosi is, rightly or wrongly, a lightning rod for anyone who isn't liberal.

[Badger]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

Just no.

Did you not see AZ-08? A random woman nearly beat a state senator in a +21 Trump +25 Romney district LOL

Also we won PA-18 lol

And 47% of the voters were registered republicans and the median age of voters was 67

There are on the ground differences. I mentioned a lot of this on a a d last night, but the summary is difference in candidate quality. First off, let's go is not considered a crazy ass Wingnut only by the comparison of other even crazier full-blown mental ward right-wingers that the Arizona GOP has been taken over by. Nevertheless, even by AZ 8 standards she was hardly an a grade can it, and arguably not More Than A B minus or C+ level candidate. Furthermore, I would hardly call the Democratic candidate just some woman. She was a pretty damn good pick.

Meanwhile, in o h 12, the Republicans have a slew of top quality candidates, leading the pack being two state senators and the County prosecutor from probably the preeminent County in the district, none of whom are so right wing that they are bound to join the freedom caucus if elected. Any one of them would make a significantly more formidable candidate then lesko. The Democrats have only decent ish candidates. Assuming ZackScott doesn't somehow still the primary, in which case you can call this race a guinea for the Republicans considering that guy will never encourage the base to turn out, they're torn between some businessman in Delaware who has been getting a lot of endorsements, and the Franklin County Recorder, O'Connor. O'Connor would be decent, but Franklin County is only a small part of this District, and I could see him having trouble raising sufficient support outside Franklin County to tip the balance. The Delaware business man seems promising, and he might be able 2 get significant support in that all important County, and still run up massive numbers in the Franklin County portion nearly as well as O'Conner would. Still, this is his first run for office and he is untried.

If any of the Republicans main three candidates are nominated, it would be at least lean Republican if not likely against either of the 2 top Democratic contenders. Buy lean-to likely I mean it would be a close race with a significant swing tour the Democrats, but just like every other special election except pa-18 the Republicans would still come out a few points on top. The Democrats best chance here is that with enough generic conservatives with a lengthy political resume running, there is a chance of a Township Trustee backed by the freedom caucus and running as an outsider slipping through a primary where the non Outsider candidates split their support largely on Geographic grounds. If that person winds up being the Republican nominee against either of the top two Democratic contenders, you can easily put this as a genuine toss-up, and gun to my head I'd say the Democrat wins.

Yes, this is still a potentially vulnerable seat even against the top three Republican contenders if any of them win the nomination. However, Democrats would be foolish to assume that merely because this district has a more favorable pvi than a Z8 did that it's even a genuine toss-up at this point, as the Republican candidates are much stronger here.

[Badger]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

General elections are less volatile than special elections. Savarino obviously made the right call.

You've been preaching that line of BS to somehow explain why Democrats have repeatedly and consistently managed major ass swings in special election after special election in legislative race after legislative race, bordering on uniformly, for the last year. Furthermore, even if we apply this novel theory of yours  to the actual race on the ground, Hispanic turnout  in  AZ 8 IRC rather sucked. While minority turnout tends to be lower in midterms than in  presidential years,  you can bet it's going to be better in November than it was Tuesday. On the other hand, turnout among elderly whites and Republicans as a percentage of the electorate has little room to expand from Tuesday's results.

The only " volatile" thing affecting election results this year is Trump, and that sure as hell isn't going to improve by November.

[Badger]

I think your OH-12 analysis is pretty off, Badger.

Franklin County is roughly 50% of the district, while the other 50% are made up of other counties. And would-be Freedom caucus member was only narrowly behind Balderson in terms of fundraising. Between Balderson, Bacon, O’Brien — and maybe even Kane — there seems a very good chance Leneghan becomes the nominee for not only the special, but the general too.

This is also the most winnable special election yet. I started off feeling bery negative about this, but am feeling pretty cofident now. OH-12 has a very active Indivisible, too.

Also, this is not John Russell’s first run for office. He ran for state representative last year in the district that is comprised of East Delaware County and all of Knox. He lost, obviously, but outran Clinton by at least 7% in every precinct, and upward of 20% in other areas.

I didn't realize half of the electorate was in Franklin County. That does change my view somewhat, though if I recall correctly at some of the more Republican areas such as Westerville.

I'm not saying the freedom caucus nut can't win the primary. Though I'd be interested in knowing if her fundraising numbers included the $200,000 gift from the freedom caucus. That would indicate if she has some Grassroots support as well. At any rate, if she wins this is at least toss up if not tilt d.

Wait a minute. Are there two elections going on, one primary for the special and one for the general election?

[Badger]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad GOOD WI rating, bad Ohio rating

Really bad ratings all over the map. Montana? Wisconsin? Nevada?

[Badger]

Morris is probably right.  But always remember Hillary was almost everyone’s winner for the whole cycle and by greater %s than 75%.

You lefties actually have some people afraid to express there support.  I even have second thoughts about putting up a Trump sign or putting on a bumper sticker.  It really makes me mad I have to worry about this because some of you have developed derangement syndromes and will take it to the point of destroying property and injuring persons.

I can't imagine what it's like for someone living in the United States to fear an attack on their property or person by deranged individuals simply because of who they are. Thoughts and prayers.

You need to post here much much more often.

[Badger]

List of candidates/seats where Trump is contributing to the Republicans. Lots of... interesting... choices.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article215768270.html

Senate seats:
PA, WY, TN, IN, ND, TX, NE, MO, NV, MN, MT, FL

So he's gonna contribute to Nebraska and Wyoming's senate races, but not Mississippi (the special in particular)? What a joke.

That has to be a typo and had to have meant West Virginia rather than Wyoming. Nebraska is probably only a hair further out than the Mississippi special race.

[Badger]

List of candidates/seats where Trump is contributing to the Republicans. Lots of... interesting... choices.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article215768270.html

Senate seats:
PA, WY, TN, IN, ND, TX, NE, MO, NV, MN, MT, FL

So he's gonna contribute to Nebraska and Wyoming's senate races, but not Mississippi (the special in particular)? What a joke.

That has to be a typo and had to have meant West Virginia rather than Wyoming. Nebraska is probably only a hair further out than the Mississippi special race.

No, the list on McClatchy says the money went to Barasso.

He tweeted out his endorsement of him today too.

bizarro - are GOP internals showing red for Barasso? I mean Trauner is about as good an opponent as you can get but that's... a very low bar in Wyoming. Or is he seeing red in the primary? I've heard literally nothing about this race.

he also donated to Scalise and McCarthy tho, so backing potential leadership prospects.

That's right. Isn't Eric Prince running against

[Badger]

I hate how ratings agencies have reacted to 2016 by, uh, making rash decisions based on one poll and moving races back to lean R at the drop of a hat:



But I'm sure the NRCC insists that Cartwright is only barely ahead and Curbelo won't lose this year. Good for Sabato, good enough for me!

Where did the change on Cartwright come from?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

Absent Wexton being outed as a child molester or murderer, this race is Safe D. Stewart is probably gonna lose this seat by at least 20 points in the Senate race, if not 30.

I agree. It's just weird that Comstock is still getting so much cash and resources, and the only real explanation that would really justify this imo is if she has a surprise that large in store to drop a week or two before November 6th, otherwise I have no clue.

There's a few other possible explanations. For one, Comstock has friends in high places. Lots of connections there. Secondly, it could be that she was promised support all the way through the end in exchange for running for re-election and/or voting for the tax bill. Third, the NRCC could also be trying to shift the narrative about how deeply endangered most of their incumbents are. They've also been "targeting" a lot of lean/likely D seats currently held by Dems, so VA-10 is hardly alone there. Notice that despite the fact that several of their incumbents are in dire situations, the only one they've publicly given up on is Rothfus.

Your first and second theories are quite compelling.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044958016372723719

Yeah, it's also similar to Democrats denying that the electorate was moving pretty strongly against them in September/October 2014. It seems denying all the evidence because of not liking what it suggests is the norm in politics.

It is not really similar.

In 2014, there were polls, even up until right before the election, that actually had Democrats leading narrowly int he Generic Congressional Ballot.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html#polls

The last fox news poll right before the election had Dems +1, for example, and the final RCP average was only R+2.4

Whereas now, Democrats have a very clear, substantial, and stable lead in the GCB. There has not been a poll since forever that has had Republicans ahead.

What was the final 2014 Congressional popular vote anyway? Percentage wise that is