2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/988392085777731586

Damn.

[LimoLiberal]

Isn't the Virginia primary in just over a month? It doesn't look like Freitas is gonna have the resources to stop Stewart from being the standard bearer. Which is bad news for Scott Taylor

It would help if we got some actual polling.

[The Other Castro]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

[Young Conservative]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

You guys might get really lucky and hold WA-8, but I highly doubt it.  VA-10 is long gone for you guys though, the question is whether or not Comstock loses by double-digits.

[YE]

Having a moderate candidate only takes you so far in a bad mid term. Sure it helps but it’s not a life saver. Ask the Blue Dogs in 2010.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Democratic enthusiasm and fundraising has been so turbocharged that there is no good reason for them to preemptively surrender in expensive media markets in competitive seats that have heavily trended their way the past decade, and to claim that it would be good strategy for them to do so is patently absurd.

I know you have an infatuation with Comstock being a vicious fighter holding a vulnerable seat, but the elections in Virginia last November made it very, very clear which direction her district is heading. Her district is permanently realigning leftward like the rest of NoVA, the environment will be way too anti-Republican come November, and her district is way too anti-Trump for her to survive. The writing is on the wall, it's just a question of whether you want to accept it or not.

[The Other Castro]

Oh also, I forgot to add PA-04 to the list of districts where Dems have the most CoH and best 1Q.

[Nyvin]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

[Young Conservative]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

The Washington Post disagrees.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

The Washington Post disagrees.

And?

[IceSpear]

I’d like to point out that Paul Penzone won AZ-6 by 7% per Miles.

Paging DCCC

Yeah, Dems would've just gotten a victory if it was Schweikert who resigned.

[Gass3268]

New Crystal Ball rating changes coming tomorrow in response to AZ-08:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/989161228437282816

[KingSweden]

I’d like to point out that Paul Penzone won AZ-6 by 7% per Miles.

Paging DCCC

Yeah, Dems would've just gotten a victory if it was Schweikert who resigned.

Do we have anybody in AZ-6?

[MAINEiac4434]

I’d like to point out that Paul Penzone won AZ-6 by 7% per Miles.

Paging DCCC

Yeah, Dems would've just gotten a victory if it was Schweikert who resigned.

Do we have anybody in AZ-6?

Two Some Guys: Garrick McFadden and Anita Malik:

https://anitaforarizona.com/
https://www.electgarrick.com/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’d like to point out that Paul Penzone won AZ-6 by 7% per Miles.

Paging DCCC

Yeah, Dems would've just gotten a victory if it was Schweikert who resigned.

Do we have anybody in AZ-6?

Two Some Guys: Garrick McFadden and Anita Malik:

https://anitaforarizona.com/
https://www.electgarrick.com/

Thankfully, there's still about a month left until the filing deadline. Perhaps a stronger candidate who was encouraged by yesterday's results may jump in.

Lol what? Anita is similar to Hiral Tipinerni. It's not like anyone knew who Tipinerni was before the campaign, and she ended up making a great impression on people.

[Jeppe]

Not sure how you guys missed Heather Ross, but she's the Democrat who's raised the most money by far in AZ-06.

Heather Ross (D) - $229,336
Garrick McFadden (D) - $68,814
Anita Malik (D) - $64,139

She seems highly qualified, and is another healthcare practicioner like Tipirneni. Ross is also running on a very "issues-oriented" campaign (she doesn't mention being a Democrat or Trump even once in her campaign website). Aside from her outdated campaign website, I don't have any complaints about her.

https://www.heatherforaz.com/

[Horus]

Not sure how you guys missed Heather Ross, but she's the Democrat who's raised the most money by far in AZ-06.

Heather Ross (D) - $229,336
Garrick McFadden (D) - $68,814
Anita Malik (D) - $64,139

She seems highly qualified, and is another healthcare practicioner like Tipirneni. Ross is also running on a very "issues-oriented" campaign (she doesn't mention being a Democrat or Trump even once in her campaign website). Aside from her outdated campaign website, I don't have any complaints about her.

https://www.heatherforaz.com/

I thought you left Atlas?

[Doimper]

Not sure how you guys missed Heather Ross, but she's the Democrat who's raised the most money by far in AZ-06.

Heather Ross (D) - $229,336
Garrick McFadden (D) - $68,814
Anita Malik (D) - $64,139

She seems highly qualified, and is another healthcare practicioner like Tipirneni. Ross is also running on a very "issues-oriented" campaign (she doesn't mention being a Democrat or Trump even once in her campaign website). Aside from her outdated campaign website, I don't have any complaints about her.

https://www.heatherforaz.com/

I thought you left Atlas?

A lot of people have """left""" Atlas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

[Gass3268]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

[IceSpear]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

Seriously, is it that hard to see that VA-10, CA-10, etc. are leans D (at least) in the same universe that districts like VA-07 is only "leans R" or CA-04 (!!!) is merely "likely R"?

muh incumbency truly is the fatal flaw of these pundits and why they ALWAYS underestimate waves, especially early on.

[Brittain33]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

I can understand it as purely a reaction to AZ-8 and looking at comparable "Safe R" seats.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

I can understand it as purely a reaction to AZ-8 and looking at comparable "Safe R" seats.

Maybe so, but no one should take any “expert” at all seriously if they still have VA-10 at tossup at this point LOL

They probably want to see some more polling from VA-10... I think the DCCC internal had Wexton leading Comstock 46-43 in February.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

I can understand it as purely a reaction to AZ-8 and looking at comparable "Safe R" seats.

Maybe so, but no one should take any “expert” at all seriously if they still have VA-10 at tossup at this point LOL

Having WA-08 at tossup is even stupider.