2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

Elaine Luria is a demon shark.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/pdfweb/videos/0417f763-32e8-4ed1-bb2f-351caf85b865.mp4

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

[Xing]

Wow, Republicans must want to lose the House if they're willing to flush money down the toilet like that. I get that they actually think that WA-08 is winnable, but I don't see how they can even fool themselves about AZ-02, MN-03, or VA-10.

[Gass3268]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

[Virginiá]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

How competitive is this district this cycle? DK backported the new district presidential results to their congressional list, and evidently Romney only won PA-16 by around 5 points. Given how Democrats have been able to make up a lot of ground lost between 2012-2016 (depending on the region), it may not be an unreasonable reach target, even if it did go for Trump by 20 points.

[Gass3268]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

How competitive is this district this cycle? DK backported the new district presidential results to their congressional list, and evidently Romney only won PA-16 by around 5 points. Given how Democrats have been able to make up a lot of ground lost between 2012-2016 (depending on the region), it may not be an unreasonable reach target, even if it did go for Trump by 20 points.

Agreed, It probably doesn't get the publicitiy because neither than Democratic or Republican are that flashy.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

How competitive is this district this cycle? DK backported the new district presidential results to their congressional list, and evidently Romney only won PA-16 by around 5 points. Given how Democrats have been able to make up a lot of ground lost between 2012-2016 (depending on the region), it may not be an unreasonable reach target, even if it did go for Trump by 20 points.

Obama won it in 2008 apparently.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

Absent Wexton being outed as a child molester or murderer, this race is Safe D. Stewart is probably gonna lose this seat by at least 20 points in the Senate race, if not 30.

I agree. It's just weird that Comstock is still getting so much cash and resources, and the only real explanation that would really justify this imo is if she has a surprise that large in store to drop a week or two before November 6th, otherwise I have no clue.

[NOVA Green]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

The Air War is heating up....

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

Absent Wexton being outed as a child molester or murderer, this race is Safe D. Stewart is probably gonna lose this seat by at least 20 points in the Senate race, if not 30.

I agree. It's just weird that Comstock is still getting so much cash and resources, and the only real explanation that would really justify this imo is if she has a surprise that large in store to drop a week or two before November 6th, otherwise I have no clue.

There's a few other possible explanations. For one, Comstock has friends in high places. Lots of connections there. Secondly, it could be that she was promised support all the way through the end in exchange for running for re-election and/or voting for the tax bill. Third, the NRCC could also be trying to shift the narrative about how deeply endangered most of their incumbents are. They've also been "targeting" a lot of lean/likely D seats currently held by Dems, so VA-10 is hardly alone there. Notice that despite the fact that several of their incumbents are in dire situations, the only one they've publicly given up on is Rothfus.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

Absent Wexton being outed as a child molester or murderer, this race is Safe D. Stewart is probably gonna lose this seat by at least 20 points in the Senate race, if not 30.

I agree. It's just weird that Comstock is still getting so much cash and resources, and the only real explanation that would really justify this imo is if she has a surprise that large in store to drop a week or two before November 6th, otherwise I have no clue.

There's a few other possible explanations. For one, Comstock has friends in high places. Lots of connections there. Secondly, it could be that she was promised support all the way through the end in exchange for running for re-election and/or voting for the tax bill. Third, the NRCC could also be trying to shift the narrative about how deeply endangered most of their incumbents are. They've also been "targeting" a lot of lean/likely D seats currently held by Dems, so VA-10 is hardly alone there. Notice that despite the fact that several of their incumbents are in dire situations, the only one they've publicly given up on is Rothfus.

You know, I just had another thought. By advertising in VA-10, the GOP is buying on Washington stations and hitting a Washington audience. This could be a way to show every Republican in the capital that they're doing something to defend Trump and the Republicans in this election and demonstrate return on their investment, even if Comstock is non-salvageable.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

I meant it more of her having dirt on Ryan or some other big time Republican.

[ajc0918]

While this isn't surprising given the environment and their candidate. It's wild to hear him openly say this this bluntly.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1044942330560679938

[Gass3268]

But Muh Weak Wallace!!!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044951715777314816

[Politician]

NC-13 might be jumping the shark, but the change is justifiable. All the other changes make sense. Wallace is a weak candidate, sure, but this is a Clinton district and he's been gaining ground.

[beesley]

But Muh Weak Wallace!!!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044951715777314816

Shame about Coffman, but not surprising. I still think Wallace is a bad candidate who shouldn't be in Congress, the important bit is he's a candidate in PA-01, not PA-10 or PA-16, where his candidacy would make more of a difference.

And who would have thought it was possible Will Hurd could be re-elected, but not John Carter?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Comstock will probably outrun Stewart by 20 points and still lose.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But Muh Weak Wallace!!!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044951715777314816

He is weak!! This race should be strong Lean D in this environment with even a halfway decent dem candidate.

[wesmoorenerd]

But Muh Weak Wallace!!!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044951715777314816

NY-02 TO LIKELY R

IT'S HAPPENING LADS

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow so the gops chances in KS-02 just got worse as Watkins just got busted flat out making up a story of building a company from scratch https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article219050510.html#click=https://t.co/bbTh6m60OZ

[GeorgiaModerate]

Assuming this is the thread for registration numbers...if not, feel free to move.

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1044298729879154691

[Virginiá]

^ This thread is fine for registration stats.


I'm so glad so many young people register with me

[TarHeelDem]

NC-13 might be jumping the shark, but the change is justifiable. All the other changes make sense. Wallace is a weak candidate, sure, but this is a Clinton district and he's been gaining ground.

Disagree. If anything they're a little late on NC-13.