2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

[publicunofficial]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Bruh, look at the WV-02 race in 2016. Your argument is ridiculous.

[junior chįmp]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Why would anyone care about carpetbagging? I doing the vast majority of voters have any idea where the person they vote for came from

[Oryxslayer]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Why would anyone care about carpetbagging? I doing the vast majority of voters have any idea where the person they vote for came from

The democrats main line of attack against "Tennessee" Trey Hollingsworth was that he was an out-of-state millionaire trying to buy a safe seat. The line obviously worked, the seat was seen as lean R everywhere by November, despite a large R pvi.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone know who won VA-10 under current borders in 2008?

Daily Kos Elections does not say whether Obama or McCain won there.

[Young Conservative]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Bruh, look at the WV-02 race in 2016. Your argument is ridiculous.

Why draw attention to a race the Republican won handily?

[publicunofficial]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Hollingsworth is still a largely uncharismatic empty suit, he's got a very tough opponent in Dan Canon (Precious sweet beautiful Dan the Man). The district has, I would argue, similar features to PA-18. Also Sabato, ect. seem perfectly willing to apply the logic of "Well the generic ballot is D+X, and the last D candidate lost by less than that, so the race is in play" which IN-09 absolutely falls into the category of.


I'd also suggest CA-50 as being more competitive than some of the other districts that have already been moved to Likely R.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone else feel that it is completely irresponsible for WA-08 to be listed as a toss up? Democrats are heavily favored there.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Does anyone else feel that it is completely irresponsible for WA-08 to be listed as a toss up? Democrats are heavily favored there.

Dino Rossi is probably "leading" right now because he is a lot more well known in the state than his democratic challenger.

I think that'll change come November, but name ID matters a lot. People don't like to say they're voting for a candidate that they don't know.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

OH-07 and SC-05 are not flipping, even if Democrats win the House NPV by 30 points.

[publicunofficial]

Seats I could make the case for being Likely R by Crystal Ball standards:

-IN-09
-CA-50
-TX-31
-KS-04
-IN-02
-NY-23
-NY-02
-WA-03
-FL-25

[LimoLiberal]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Bruh, look at the WV-02 race in 2016. Your argument is ridiculous.

Why draw attention to a race the Republican won handily?

Because even though the Republican won handily, he deeply underperformed the district's partisan lean.

[KingSweden]

Does anyone else feel that it is completely irresponsible for WA-08 to be listed as a toss up? Democrats are heavily favored there.

Not really. GOP got their best possible candidate there, possibly their best House recruit in the country, and the Democrats are okay but certainly no worldbeaters

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

According to this, the 1992 ME-02 election featured 3 candidates who lived outside the District, and none who lived inside the District.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why has no one moved FL-25 out of the Safe R category yet? Trump only barely won it.

[Oryxslayer]

Why has no one moved FL-25 out of the Safe R category yet? Trump only barely won it.

Lack of quality candidates with significant hauls. Largely this is thanks to the fact that the seat is the lowest rung on the Miami ladder. If you are a Miami politician you have: FL-27 a open future Safe seat that you will have for life if you win the primary, FL-26 a dem leaning tossup seat in dem year, or Fl-25 a still right leaning seat with a high Cuban % and reaches significantly out of the county. This has largely played out as one would expect it: FL-27 is a dem primary bloodbath, FL-26 is cleared for a high profile recruit, and FL-25 got ignored in favor of the other two.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why has no one moved FL-25 out of the Safe R category yet? Trump only barely won it.

It's only 18% white (which means it probably won't swing much b/c pretty much all of the swings we've seen from 2016 have been from white folks), Romney won it by 10, Mccain won it by 18, and the representative is a fairly good fit. Also, not very good candidates on the dem side.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

[Pollster]

Stivers implying the NRCC might triage NJ-02.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/989590634183954434

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Stivers implying the NRCC might triage NJ-02.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/989590634183954434

What? No! They need to spend $30 million so they can defeat Jeff Van Drew! He must be stopped!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

Just no.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

Just no.

Did you not see AZ-08? A random woman nearly beat a state senator in a +21 Trump +25 Romney district LOL

Also we won PA-18 lol

And 47% of the voters were registered republicans and the median age of voters was 67

[Badger]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.