2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Excellent article by GEM on the difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting, and how they look different for this year's House races:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/two-ways-of-thinking-about-election-predictions-and-what-they-tell-us-about-2018/

[BlueDogs2020]

Scroll to bottom of the page; WV-03 is rated as Lean Democratic by whoever is their ¨expert¨.
Personally I agree---- thoughts?

[nerd73]

Shows up as Likely R for me.

[Politician]

O J E D A

[ON Progressive]

Shows up as Likely R for me.

And that is the correct rating until we have any sufficient information to change it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like we don't know anything about WV-03 other than basically gossip. It may end up at Lean Democratic by October, but I think it's way too early to put it there yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

Even with metoo scenarios, I think Kaine would edge out 49-48.

even with a vague, unspecified scandal, I think my preferred candidate would win by a margin that I have pulled out of my ass

I'm sorry. I just don't see Stewart winning VA statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm pretty sure you just have your own map saved. The 270 to win map uses the Sabato numbers, which are likely R. The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

So the same strategy the CA Republican Party is doing? Kashkari did get 40% in 2014, maybe Cox could get 42%?

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

So the same strategy the CA Republican Party is doing? Kashkari did get 40% in 2014, maybe Cox could get 42%?

Kashkari got 40% because Jerry Brown didn't campaign like at all he used the money he raised for the ballot propositions he wanted past while kashkari nonstop campaigned across the state for a year and got 40%. A lot of Allen voters won't turn out for cox plus trump endorsed cox the moderates who voted for kashkari in 2014 won't support cox because of his trump endorsement cox's floor is 31% what trump got in 2016. His ceiling is Kashkari's performance at 40% I can't see him out preforming Kashkari unless Newsom raped somebody.  Cox's campaign is already alienating Romney-Clinton voters that might have considered supporting him. I predict he'll get 36%.

[KingSweden]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Fun fact about Najjar: Apparently his grandfather, Mohammed Youssef al-Najjar (a.k.a. Abu Youssef) was third in command of the PLO and also helped plan the Munich massacre as Black September’s operations chief.  

In fairness, I don’t know what Ammar’s views are and hopefully he’s denounced his grandfather’s terrorism, but in light of this, Butner was definitely a stronger candidate b/c this is definitely gonna get brought up if Hunter feels he’s in any danger.

Najjar has repeatedly denounced his grandfather (who he’s never met seeing as he was killed by Eric Bana a few years after the Olympics) and Najjar is in fact a Protestant Christian convert.

[Oryxslayer]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Pretty good, a little too optimistic for the GOP in Tennessee.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Daily Kos needs to fire their election prediction team. They are a bunch of Republican hacks, predicting results more favorable for the Republicans than literally anyone else.

RRH, Sabato, Cook, Inside Elections; all of them are predicting a better result to some extent for Democrats than Daily Kos.

[KingSweden]

Daily Kos needs to fire their election prediction team. They are a bunch of Republican hacks, predicting results more favorable for the Republicans than literally anyone else.

RRH, Sabato, Cook, Inside Elections; all of them are predicting a better result to some extent for Democrats than Daily Kos.

Uh have you ever been to DKE? I for one think being cautious with predictions is sound.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Daily Kos needs to fire their election prediction team. They are a bunch of Republican hacks, predicting results more favorable for the Republicans than literally anyone else.

RRH, Sabato, Cook, Inside Elections; all of them are predicting a better result to some extent for Democrats than Daily Kos.

Uh have you ever been to DKE? I for one think being cautious with predictions is sound.

The Daily Kos predictions are basically what I would expect if the generic ballot was R+1 by election day. Much more likely, it will be something like D+11.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

There is a fine line between a cautious prediction, and an effortless prediction. This Daily Kos prediction is in effortless territory.

[IceSpear]

If the generic ballot was R+1, then many of those toss ups would be lean R (at least.) But I do agree their ratings are oddly pessimistic. Stabenow and Menendez as likely to win as Blackburn and Cruz? Lol, I'm relatively pessimistic on the TX/TN races and even I think that's ludicrous. I also refuse to take seriously any ratings that have Nevada as a toss up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad WI rating.

[Young Conservative]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad GOOD WI rating, bad Ohio rating

[MT Treasurer]

The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

I mean, it’s not really that absurd to rate it Lean D, especially given that Manchin will win the district easily against Morrisey. If Ojeda wins this year (which is certainly possible), he might run against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020 and make that race competitive, so Republicans need to take this race very seriously.

[Oryxslayer]

The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

I mean, it’s not really that absurd to rate it Lean D, especially given that Manchin will win the district easily against Morrisey. If Ojeda wins this year (which is certainly possible), he might run against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020 and make that race competitive, so Republicans need to take this race very seriously.

Oh yeah, I suspect it will be closer to the center by November. But right now, we have no polling for the race, and no real good polling for the senate with regional divides. Plus we have not yet seen consistent fundraising numbers yet - but that is simply because the primary was not that long ago. So yes it will move, but we need more data. Likely/Lean R is a good place right now.

[Badger]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad GOOD WI rating, bad Ohio rating

Really bad ratings all over the map. Montana? Wisconsin? Nevada?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad GOOD Bad WI, Ohio, and PA ratings

[Politician]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

>Wisconsin and Ohio being Lean D while Tennessee is Likely R
LMAO