Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Do you guys worry that Democrats will nationalize these races too much for their own good, kind of like what happened in ME?

Georgia is racially polarized. Maine is not. Maine is a secular white state that splits tickets.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Do y'all think that Vaccine Distribution could help the Republicans?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

So according to what other posters have mentioned, about 23,000 18 year olds have “aged in” for this election since November, and there may be a few thousand people who have moved to Georgia since then and have registered. So, let’s just say 10,000 of them will turn out to vote. That would be about a 40% turnout rate. If they go 60/40 D-R that should give Warnock and Ossoff another 2K votes. Not a lot, but anything helps.
I’m also assuming that those who have died since November 3rd are probably older and more GOP-leaning. I know I’m doing some quick math, but would you guys agree with it?

I don't think it's that high

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

McSally or Loeffler? Who is more pathetic?

McSally. Losing twice is worse.

Yeah but 2018 is a blue wave.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

McSally or Loeffler? Who is more pathetic?

McSally. Losing twice is worse.

Yeah but 2018 is a blue wave.

She did worse this year didn't she?

We're talking about fractions of fractions of percents. Both are pathetic, but Loeffler was facing a scandalous candidate in a run-off year. GA Democrats don't exactly have a great record in runoff years.

McSally lost barely against 2 strong democratic candidates.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://twitter.com/TheNoahRing/status/1346663553898582016?s=20
So no democrat majority after all?? I'm not sure whether to trust this (yet).

F**k Joe Manchin

No one but Joe Manchin could have won that seat.

I don't trust the source.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The year is 3000. Jon Ossoff leads by 100M votes.

CNN/AP/NYT project this race as both too close and too early to call.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Tonight's Big Winners: Ossoff, Warnock, Abrams, Biden

Tonight's Big Losers: Perdue, Loeffler, Trump, McConnell, CNN

Jan 5 big winners: Moderate/Liberal Democrats

Jan 5 big losers: The ability of Georgia Republicans to win statewide elections

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Note to New York: THIS is how to run an election!

It shouldn't take more than 1 month to count all ballots.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

There seems to be around 20,000 Perdue-Warnock voters. I knew there would be some, but thats a lot more than I thought. Why is that? Just didn't like a women? Or are they Lincoln Republicans who can't stand Leoffler

Loeffler is a robot. MAGA wing of the GOP didn't like her for insider trading scandal. She was also unelected, so the incumbency advantage would have been weaker. She seemed to receive more bad press than Perdue.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I don't really buy either this whole "Reps were going to win until last week" - this race has seemed generally static for a while now (Pollster confirmed this), and just look at the early vote - black voters/Dems have been fired up ever since early voting started in Dec.

I think Ossoff would have lost had the election been held a week ago, but Warnock definitely would have won.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

Didn't Loeffler and Perdue improve on Trump's numbers in counties like Cherokee and Forsyth?  It just wasn't enough given what happened elsewhere in the state.

Biden won Gwinett by 18, while Warnock won it by >20. Most of the counties where Loeffler significantly underperformed Trump were rural, particularly SW GA.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

You hit the nail on the head--traditionally conservative. The suburbs used to be conservative, but in today's alignment, many suburbs can no longer be considered that.

For one, they're no longer heterogenously white, in fact there are lots of black, hispanic, and asian suburbs now. Even in white suburbs, there is an increased number of minorities. The people whose parents or grandparents once moved to the suburbs to get away from minorities are now living amongst them.

On gun control, suburbanites in the past may have liked guns as a means of protecting their McMansions from the unwashed hordes. But there has been a change in attitude since Columbine and Sandy Hook, I'm sure you can imagine why.

Suburbs are also densifying, which is a sign of left-leaning politics. Also, young people who may not be able to afford to live downtown in places like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago are moving to places like Orange, Gwinnett, and Will counties. Finally, with college education becoming an increasing dividing line in American politics, college-educated suburbanites are a more liberal bloc.

Put it all together, and the traditionally conservative suburbs are largely trending to the Democrats because they're more liberal. There are a few exceptions like Staten Island, but broadly speaking, this trend follows in most major metro areas.

I doubt that the electorate has diversified that much since Nov 3rd. I'm asking why Loeffler and Perdue underperformed Trump if Trump supposedly cost them the run-offs.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

how is that possible? do those black voters just not turn out?

although a few majority-black counties in Georgia may be something like 51% black in terms of population or CVAP, but the people who turn out on election-day are majority white.

Early County is an example.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The needle will go red and never go back by 8pm.

Cash it in. It’s gaining interest.

haters gonna hate

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Relevant once more:

agree. IL and VA are based.