Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten: the race is too close to call.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/29/politics/fox-news-poll-virginia-analysis/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Honestly this race makes me glad I’m on another continent now

There were times in the days leading up to the 2020 election that I wished i was on another planet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just realized polls close at 11 my time. Boo! Closer sooner I want to watch the finale live and I have a nine AM

At least you're lucky that the election falls in the one-week gap after the UK has returned to standard time but the US hasn't.  Otherwise they would be closing at midnight your time.


Amusing(?) related story...I work with a guy in England, and when I joined our work chat yesterday morning we had this exchange:

Him: Wow, you're on an hour early today!  (True from his viewpoint, because there's only 4 hours difference between us this week instead of 5.)

Me: No wonder I'm so tired.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s over for Youngkin

Young Kim is the end for him

Youngkin...Young Kim...

Coincidence?  You be the judge!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure this bit of trivia has been mentioned, but this is the first time that a baseball World Series game will be held on Election Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT! THERE IS RAIN IN NOVA NOW FOR REAL!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL.

I guess Davison is inevitable in Seattle as well, since it's supposed to rain this afternoon.

Isn't it always raining in Seattle?

In November it sure rains a lot. Who knows how Democrats manage to win here?

But is it a cold November rain?

(BTW, did you know that Atlanta gets more annual rainfall than Seattle or Portland?  Really true.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Never change, Atlas lol.

To sum up - is it fair to say there are positives so far for both sides regarding turnout and there are no meaningful takeaways so far?

This is correct.  Basically we will know almost nothing useful until actual results start coming in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.

Whether or not you (and NSV) believe the race is competitive, most of the world believes that it is, and that's what generates the attention.

Also a tip: you don't need to keep responding that way about the competitiveness of the race.  You've made your opinion extremely clear by now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 live blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/ (apologies if already posted, I was away for an hour and came back to >10 new pages which I'm not going to read).

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

It depends.  Some exit polls will also make an effort (before Election Day) to sample those who have voted by mail.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When does Fairfax early vote drop?

I saw a post on Twitter (don't have the citation) suggesting around 7:30 EDT.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, the exit poll has updated to Biden -9 approval versus -13 from earlier

so by the end what will the final number be?

Sorry, I left my crystal ball at the office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455677772957900806

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455678492675293192

[GeorgiaModerate]

For as much as people have been ragging on Wasserman, he's been providing some very useful bits of info so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn is saying that so far Youngkin is running just a bit ahead of his benchmarks for a tied race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455684670222475267

Looking like it may be a long night ahead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m trying to be hopeful that if Youngkin wins, it will signal that Republicans need to distance themselves from Trump to win.

With the corollary that this may be more difficult to achieve in states that actually have a primary, unlike the Virginia GOP this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket's update on the VA legistlative races: https://split-ticket.org/2023/10/12/virginia-temperature-check-10-12/

TL;DR: they forecast Democrats to end up in control of both the HoD and Senate...but it's close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1714087190605467790

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717932899880546788

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those numbers don't look great for Democrats...

You never think anything is good news or good numbers for Democrats. What's your basis for this statement?

The AA and 18-29 percentages look lower than what Democrats would like.

as I said before you never think anything is positive for Democrats.

If Biden won reelection in a 1984-like sweep, he'd say that the future was ominous for Democrats because they still lost one state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tara Durant Built Her Political Career On A Story That Doesn’t Add Up

But newly obtained documents relating to Durant’s 911 call, in addition to an interview with a protester who was present during Durant’s supposed assault, tell a different story of what happened that day ― one that suggests Durant has been significantly exaggerating.

HuffPost reviewed copies of police reports, obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, that suggest Durant instigated a confrontation with protesters, who regularly held peaceful demonstrations in the area, and that she tried to hit them with her car as they stood in a crosswalk.

According to the police reports ― which characterize the protest as peaceful, with “no arrests or property damage” ― witnesses told police there was a car being aggressive toward protesters in the same intersection where Durant was located, at the same time she was there.

Worth reading the whole thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1719817349203739053

[GeorgiaModerate]

Imagine if republicans get a trifecta in VA while losing the KY and MS gubernatorial races . Would Be crazy lol

What would be the emerging narrative? Maybe that so long as abortion isn’t meaningfully discussed or pols respect that it will be a right in half the country and a crime in the other half, politics are moving back to local issues.

Especially if Ohio ends up approving everything up and down.

The funniest possible result tomorrow would be for both houses to flip in opposite directions, while both the KY and MS governorships flip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't have much else to say about the Virginia elections tomorrow, I'm just posting here to take a moment and note how amazing the name Chaz Nuttycombe is.

That's the name of a cereal mascot.

The first time I saw his name, I thought it was a made-up Twitter handle.