Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Where the f is DeKalb!?

Just east of Fulton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ has called it for Warnock.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of things about the "14,000 military ballots":

1. These are how many were sent out and haven't yet been returned.  These are sent out partly from a recurring list, i.e. they weren't necessarily requested explicitly.  So the return rate is lower than for regular absentee ballots.

2. This isn't just military members serving overseas; it includes ALL overseas voters still registered in Georgia, e.g. employees of multinational corporations, NGOs, etc.  The latter group is usually about 60% of the total overseas/military vote and tends to be strongly democratic.  

Between these two factors, I expect there are at most a few thousand that have yet to be counted (they can be received as late as Friday to be counted), and will probably be no worse than a wash for the Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This hits the nail on the head about candidate quality:

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/1346835076965777409

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/dcdufour/status/1346873659898654721

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is the scary thing

If the GOP underperforms when Trump isn't on the ballot but overperforms when he is, would the party become more Trumpist?

I'm curious if this will come true in a literal sense, e.g. the various Trump kids are successful candidates in Republican primaries because of branding and the man himself can only run for one office again.

I don't see the Trump kids having much success in primaries.  They don't have the same charisma that Trump does to impassion followers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

or Chatham, or Henry, or Fulton, or Gwinnett, they all have like 3-7K ballots left. DK what they're doing

For absentees that arrived yesterday, they all must be processed which may require review by voter review panels.  It's not a fast process.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know when the races will be certified, allowing Warnock and Ossoff to be sworn in? I know that the Georgia capitol, and SOS Raffensperger had to be evacuated yesterday - will that slow the process down?

It didn't slow things down, as the counties are not even finished counting yet.  Overseas/military ballots can arrive as late as 5pm EST tomorrow and still be counted.  Provisional ballots may also be cured during the same time frame.

All counties will likely be finished and certify their counts by around Jan. 15.  Since both races have margins greater than 0.5%, there will be no recount and the state should certify the races shortly thereafter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Miles:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1347033774069080064

[GeorgiaModerate]

When will they be sworn in?

Whenever the results get certified. It'll be before Biden is sworn in.

I wrote this morning:

Does anyone know when the races will be certified, allowing Warnock and Ossoff to be sworn in? I know that the Georgia capitol, and SOS Raffensperger had to be evacuated yesterday - will that slow the process down?

It didn't slow things down, as the counties are not even finished counting yet.  Overseas/military ballots can arrive as late as 5pm EST tomorrow and still be counted.  Provisional ballots may also be cured during the same time frame.

All counties will likely be finished and certify their counts by Jan. 15.  Since both races have margins greater than 0.5%, there will be no recount and the state should certify the races shortly thereafter.

Since the Senate is out of session until Jan. 19, I expect they will be sworn in when it reconvenes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Have Loeffler and Perdue officially conceded? Or is this the new Republican norm just refuse conceding defeat?

They have not conceded as far as I am aware.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff and Warnock continue to increase their leads:

Jon Ossoff 2,247,310 (50.46%)
David Perdue 2,206,004 (49.54%)
= Ossoff +41,306 (0.93%)

Raphael Warnock 2,266,331 (50.89%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,187,037 (49.11%)
= Warnock +79,294 (1.78%)

Man, this isn’t even going to be that close in the end.

The final needles were Warnock+2.0 and Ossoff+1.1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quick question, but is there any idea as to when both Ossoff and Warnock will be sworn in?

Short answer: probably when the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 19.

Longer answer (not directed solely at you): it's worth checking at least a page or two of the thread before asking things like this.  This is at least the third time it's been asked and answered.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thank you Kelly for conceding and not acting like some baseless voter fraud exist.  I have no time for sore losers anymore. 

Yup. Now what about Perdue? Has he said anything?

Not yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when will the crook concede to Ossoff...

About that:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1347344035564969986

I now have more respect for Loeffler than Perdue, which is something else I wouldn't have predicted as an outcome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when will the crook concede to Ossoff...

About that:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1347344035564969986
I now have more respect for Loeffler than Perdue, which is something else I wouldn't have predicted as an outcome.

What happens if David Perdue refuses to concede by January 20th?

His seat is vacant so nothing. Harris will just swear Ossoff in if she has to.

Right.  Concession by the losing candidate is not a requirement in any election; it's a sign of courtesy, class, and respect for the will of the people.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

Quite likely at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has hit his MUH NEEDLE estimate (+1.11 right now). Warnock is at +1.96, which also rounds to his +2 estimate, but I'd like to see him actually get up there.

I mean, again, just wow at the needle literally being *right* on the money.

Nate Cohn made some comments before the GE that the 2020 needle was *much* smarter than the 2016 version, but required precinct-level data by vote modality, which is only available in real time from some states (GA, NC, FL being the 2020 competitive states among them).  He was right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

when will cobb come through for perdue? im waiting for late ballots to come in and change it to 80-20 perdue

DeJoy lost them all in the mail.

On that note, I'm still getting campaign flyers in the mail as of yesterday.  Makes me wonder how many ballots arrived late.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As usual, we (Forsyth) are one of the slowest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My friend who lives in Atlanta was one of our fabled "TiCkEt SpLiTtErS." He voted Perdue-Warnock after voting for Jorgensen for President in November. The rare Libertarian/Democrat/Republican voter.

I've always believed in voting for the best candidate in each race, and I recall once voting for at least one D, R, L, and Independent on the same ballot.  (Although for the last couple of years R's have been put on my no-vote list.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenatorWarnock/status/1352694399533273089

[GeorgiaModerate]

I got a Warnock flyer in today's mail -- 29 days after the runoff!