Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[SCNCmod]

Ossoff 50.3
Perdue 49.7

Warnock 50.9
Loeffler 49.1

Although not exactly novel... my prediction yesterday morning (in the predict results thread) is currently within 1/10th of a point (granted I'm sure Ossoff/Warnock margins will increase some more)

[n1240]

How did Ossoff do in GA-6?

Ossoff 199978 (52.8%)
Perdue 178620 (47.2%)

Also for good measure, Warnock vs Loeffler

Warnock 203845 (53.9%)
Loeffler 174570 (46.1%)

Vote totals may be off very slightly because there is a precinct split or two in Cobb that I didn't feel like accounting for in this quick calc. D margins will also go up a bit more once Fulton and DeKalb finish counting as well.

[Sbane]

So how many votes are still outstanding?

[Mr. Smith]

GA and VA are now the only southern states to have 2 Dem Senators.

Only Southern states with ANY Dem Senators actually.

[Thunder98]

GA and VA are now the only southern states to have 2 Dem Senators.

Only Southern states with ANY Dem Senators actually.

Unless you count WV as Southern.

[Mr. Smith]

GA and VA are now the only southern states to have 2 Dem Senators.

Only Southern states with ANY Dem Senators actually.

Unless you count WV as Southern.

Touche.

[DINGO Joe]

So how many votes are still outstanding?

I'd guess about 25,000.  Henry never updated and they have 8600 left Dekalb has 5-6000.  The rest are a smattering of smaller updates (maybe Fayette and Peach) and 10-12000 provisionals, military and cured ballots mainly from metro Atlanta.

[WD]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320

[SCNCmod]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320

For several reasons (in his mind), I've thought for a couple of weeks now that he would prefer both of them to lose. (although I'm unsure if he will have the same opinion several months from now- my guess is he will... unless the Senate starts investigating his taxes or something, which probably will not happen).

Reasons:
1) He doesn't want to be the only loser in GA
2) Whether he runs in 2024, or decides to start some sort of competing Right wing media company- he feels like both would be easier for him if he can rail against all 3 bodies (house, senate, white house).
3) Lessens the power of McConnell or any other Republican Senators (allows him to maintain more control over the party).
4) He never really cared about Conservative Social Policies to begin with (His positions were just a means to an end).

[Virginiá]

Ah, I see Trump is taking the Emperor Palpatine approach to government: "If I can't have it, no one can"

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320

For several reasons (in his mind), I've thought for a couple of weeks now that he would prefer both of them to lose. (although I'm unsure if he will have the same opinion several months from now- my guess is he will... unless the Senate starts investigating his taxes or something, which probably will not happen).

Reasons:
1) He doesn't want to be the only loser in GA
2) Whether he runs in 2024, or decides to start some sort of competing Right wing media company- he feels like both would be easier for him if he can rail against all 3 bodies (house, senate, white house).
3) Lessens the power of McConnell or any other Republican Senators (allows him to maintain more control over the party).
4) He never really cared about Conservative Social Policies to begin with (His positions were just a means to an end).

It would be some next-level karma if Trump spends the rest of his life dividing and effectively sabotaging the GOP. He never cared about them anyway, he got to be president and that's what matters. As for the Republicans, play with fire and you get burned.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ah, I see Trump is taking the Emperor Palpatine approach to government: "If I can't have it, no one can"

And these people still don't call him out now that he's bringing them down with him.

Too bad Mr. Trump didn't express his dissatisfaction with Perdue and Loeffler via @realdonaldtrump. Oh wait...

[MillennialModerate]

Why hasn’t MillennialModerate done this yet?

If Dems win both I’ll change my name to MllennialMarkey

I’ve tried multiple times and it keeps saying I don’t have a valid email?

Permission from forum mods to change it for me if they can

[MillennialModerate]

I couldn’t have been more wrong. Guess November was no fluke. Georgia is a swing state that’s for sure. It’s hard to believe how quickly this has happened. I take back every negetive thing I’ve said about Stacey Abrams. No one thought less of her than me but wow.

I would’ve been a HEALTHY amount against this happening. But I’m grateful to be wrong and I’m sorry for what must’ve been maddening posts to read over and over again (Although there were moment I genuinely thought Osoff might not have the numbers but I guess no one is going to believe the boy who cried wolf)

I will change my SN for a month and I will pay out the $50 I promised in short order.

[MillennialModerate]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

We appreciate it. Can you please display your reverse psychology on Election Day in 2022 and 2024? When you project your pessimism, the opposite seems to happen. We could really use your help.

Noted

[wbrocks67]

So how many votes are still outstanding?

I'd guess about 25,000.  Henry never updated and they have 8600 left Dekalb has 5-6000.  The rest are a smattering of smaller updates (maybe Fayette and Peach) and 10-12000 provisionals, military and cured ballots mainly from metro Atlanta.

May be more than that - if Henry has 9K, DeKalb 5/6, and a smattering elsewhere, that'll be about 20K. There's at least 10K provisionals, plus an additinal possible 14K military (which there won't be), so possibly 45K in the end, but probably closer to 30-35K

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Don't mind me. Just making sure these specific posts are held for further posterity.

Yeah Democrats are going to lose.
They aren’t even punching back at these Warnock attacks enough.
Schumer should lose his job.

Well those two races are safe R now.
This is the worst news I have woken up to this month.
I was hoping Trump would lash out but nope.

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.
This is much much much different ballgame.
Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

Updated CNN exit polls...  dreadful (someone back me up since everyone will roll there eyes at me)

Sources: MillennialModerate is beside himself. Driving around downtown Boston begging (thru texts) Warnock's family for address to Raphael's home

This isn’t over. Pages I’m seeing still shows Dems behind

And if Osoff doesn’t win it’s worthless.

Why is everyone celebrating? The GOP are still well ahead
Or am I missing something?

DeKalb is going to wipe that out

Mark my words this isn’t even close to over

I’m shocked we’re grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.
Shocked I tell you.
Where are the posts who mocked me?

LOL, the gap is 19k.
OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.
The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I’ll change my name to Millennial Markey if the Dems win both seats.
It’s not happening.. & tbh I can’t image ticket splitting is all that likely either

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government.

My desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end.

Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

No shame or clue at all. Pathetic.

[wbrocks67]

So according to FOX/AP exit poll, definitely a bit more of a Biden electorate, given favorabilities.

Oddly enough, Perdue had a +3 fav, better than Ossoff, but Perdue/Loeffler got bad marks on "do they care about people like me"?

Favorabilities:

Joe Biden: 51/47 (+4)
Donald Trump: 47/51 (-4)

Raphael Warnock: 49/46 (+3)
David Perdue: 50/47 (+3)
Jon Ossoff: 48/48 (=)
Kelly Loeffler: 47/48 (-1)

Do you think ___ cares about people like you?
Jon Ossoff: 53/47 (+6)
Raphael Warnock: 52/48 (+4)
David Perdue: 48/52 (-4)
Kelly Loeffler: 45/55 (-10)

[tagimaucia]

So according to FOX/AP exit poll, definitely a bit more of a Biden electorate, given favorabilities.

Oddly enough, Perdue had a +3 fav, better than Ossoff, but Perdue/Loeffler got bad marks on "do they care about people like me"?

Favorabilities:

Joe Biden: 51/47 (+4)
Donald Trump: 47/51 (-4)

Raphael Warnock: 49/46 (+3)
David Perdue: 50/47 (+3)
Jon Ossoff: 48/48 (=)
Kelly Loeffler: 47/48 (-1)

Do you think ___ cares about people like you?
Jon Ossoff: 53/47 (+6)
Raphael Warnock: 52/48 (+4)
David Perdue: 48/52 (-4)
Kelly Loeffler: 45/55 (-10)

Does anyone have a link to the detailed page of FOX/AP Votecast data for the runoff?  I've seen little bits and pieces of info from it, but I couldn't find the full thing.  Looking for the equivalent of this:

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

[wbrocks67]

So according to FOX/AP exit poll, definitely a bit more of a Biden electorate, given favorabilities.

Oddly enough, Perdue had a +3 fav, better than Ossoff, but Perdue/Loeffler got bad marks on "do they care about people like me"?

Favorabilities:

Joe Biden: 51/47 (+4)
Donald Trump: 47/51 (-4)

Raphael Warnock: 49/46 (+3)
David Perdue: 50/47 (+3)
Jon Ossoff: 48/48 (=)
Kelly Loeffler: 47/48 (-1)

Do you think ___ cares about people like you?
Jon Ossoff: 53/47 (+6)
Raphael Warnock: 52/48 (+4)
David Perdue: 48/52 (-4)
Kelly Loeffler: 45/55 (-10)

Does anyone have a link to the detailed page of FOX/AP Votecast data for the runoff?  I've seen little bits and pieces of info from it, but I couldn't find the full thing.  Looking for the equivalent of this:

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

I was the same way - funnily enough, its on there - its on the same page, just go to Georgia and then in the drop down youll be able to pick the Runoffs + the regular

[South Dakota Democrat]

I couldn’t have been more wrong. Guess November was no fluke. Georgia is a swing state that’s for sure. It’s hard to believe how quickly this has happened. I take back every negetive thing I’ve said about Stacey Abrams. No one thought less of her than me but wow.

I would’ve been a HEALTHY amount against this happening. But I’m grateful to be wrong and I’m sorry for what must’ve been maddening posts to read over and over again (Although there were moment I genuinely thought Osoff might not have the numbers but I guess no one is going to believe the boy who cried wolf)

I will change my SN for a month and I will pay out the $50 I promised in short order.

I still don't understand why you were so stubborn about it, though.  It was obviously trending Democratic, but you just seemed to think it wouldn't continue to trend anymore at all or might even trend in the opposite direction.  Why did you insist on ignoring all available evidence?

[Torrain]

Does anyone know when the races will be certified, allowing Warnock and Ossoff to be sworn in? I know that the Georgia capitol, and SOS Raffensperger had to be evacuated yesterday - will that slow the process down?

[forsythvoter]

I spoke to my dad this morning and asked him how he felt about sitting out the runoffs given the close outcomes in favor of the Ds (he's a strong R but not particularly fond of Trump). In his words: "It was an election of the crazy leading the blind. And I'm not blind." If you're wondering how one of the November Perdue / Loeffler votes fell off in the runoffs.

[DINGO Joe]

Does anyone know when the races will be certified, allowing Warnock and Ossoff to be sworn in? I know that the Georgia capitol, and SOS Raffensperger had to be evacuated yesterday - will that slow the process down?

Counties have to certify by 1-15 and SOS can certify immediately thereafter.