2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 641851 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #75 on: November 04, 2020, 11:29:24 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #76 on: November 04, 2020, 12:07:50 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #77 on: November 04, 2020, 12:17:58 PM »

Trump leads by 87K, outstanding votes expected to be heavily D.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #78 on: November 04, 2020, 01:05:29 PM »
Quote from: riceowl on November 04, 2020, 01:04:22 PM
I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

FWIW, the Times stopped updating the needles at 6am EST.  They're not going to change any further.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #79 on: November 04, 2020, 02:11:43 PM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #80 on: November 04, 2020, 02:16:56 PM »
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on November 04, 2020, 02:16:04 PM
Quote from: GP270watch on November 04, 2020, 02:14:22 PM
Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

When do we get the dump today?

I believe Nevada will be providing daily updates at 3pm PST (6pm EST).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #81 on: November 04, 2020, 02:18:59 PM »

Yes, if the remaining absentees are not as overwhelmingly D as they are expected to be.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #82 on: November 04, 2020, 02:23:10 PM »
Not that it will change anything, but interesting:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #83 on: November 04, 2020, 02:25:45 PM »
Quote from: EliteLX on November 04, 2020, 02:25:07 PM
I would argue it is legitimately outright unacceptable for PA to be at 64% reporting today at 2:24 PM.

Ridiculous.

Take it up with the GOP state legislature that refused to allow election officials to start processing absentee ballots early.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #84 on: November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #85 on: November 04, 2020, 03:34:11 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #86 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:03 PM »
Quote from: Asta on November 04, 2020, 03:37:10 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:34:11 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.
Have you run your own numbers to support this? Not that I don't trust Nate but it'd be more convincing with a second opinion.

Based on what's out, *IF* Biden wins those counties as strongly as Nate projects (and on that have to defer to him), then Biden would win narrowly.  But (1) as Nate noted, there could be reporting errors (which could go either way, of course), and (2) there are some high bars in there, e.g. 93-7 in DeKalb.  Not unrealistic, but with little room for error.

So my opinion is a solid maybe. Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #87 on: November 04, 2020, 03:56:28 PM »
This starts in a few minutes:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #88 on: November 04, 2020, 03:59:04 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #89 on: November 04, 2020, 04:05:53 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on November 04, 2020, 04:02:11 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 03:55:21 PM
I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

In fact:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #90 on: November 04, 2020, 04:07:47 PM »
Quote from: politics_king on November 04, 2020, 04:07:06 PM
If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

Sell off the White House furniture.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2020, 04:10:04 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #92 on: November 04, 2020, 04:11:38 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #93 on: November 04, 2020, 04:22:53 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 04:26:51 PM by GeorgiaModerate »
With MI and WI called, a summary of what's left of interest:

AZ - Biden leads, has been called by Fox and AP but nobody else, considerable number of votes left to count.  Next update: 9pm EST tonight.

NV - Biden leads, remaining ballots look favorable to him.  Next update: 1pm EST tomorrow.

PA - Biden trails, but will likely lead after all absentees are counted.

GA - Biden trails, but is making up ground and is possibly on track for a narrow win.  Next update: 6pm EST tonight.

NC - Biden trails, but has an outside shot of overcoming Trump's lead with remaining votes.

So if Biden wins PA or any two of the others, he wins the election.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #94 on: November 04, 2020, 04:26:09 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 04:24:46 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on November 04, 2020, 04:23:30 PM
Quick question; is the senate really completely gone for Ds?

I'm not there chances are low but they definately aren't non-zero yet.

It seems like Tillis and Peters will both ling onto their seats. From there, it comes down to whether Perdue can be pushed below 50% or not, which looks like it'll be close. From there, they would have to win both the runoffs.  If Democrats go brute force in GA, they might have a chance, though GA D turn out is traditionally bad in off years. Again, this is a lot of ifs, and their chances are probably close to single digits, if not single digits, but imagine if Democrats still end up with the trifecta... lol
There might be 2 runoffs in Ga

I think this is more likely than not at this point.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #95 on: November 04, 2020, 05:59:03 PM »
All of you folks speculating about what the Democrats should do in 2024: the last four years should have taught you that we have no idea what the country will look like by then.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #96 on: November 04, 2020, 06:03:35 PM »
I don't know if this relates to the rumored 6pm Georgia update.  I've also seen something saying 9pm.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #97 on: November 04, 2020, 06:08:31 PM »
Quote from: forsythvoter on November 04, 2020, 06:04:36 PM
Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still allows mail-in ballots that are received through this Friday to count. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

Quote from: Peter Henderson/Kamelamela Harris 2020 on November 04, 2020, 06:02:23 PM

Current margin <60k


We don't allow absentee ballots to be received by Friday.  They must have been received by poll closing time yesterday.  But those that arrived (via mail or dropbox) in the last day or two are still being processed.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #98 on: November 04, 2020, 06:14:08 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 04, 2020, 06:13:33 PM
Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

I predicted 65-35.  Would love to see it come down to that number with the remaining absentees, if any.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #99 on: November 04, 2020, 06:18:19 PM »


FFT!
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