2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

From https://twitter.com/alexoimas/status/1320079972116107264:

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.

If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

I arrived just as polling place opened. Short line. Thought I'd be in and out in 20 minutes tops. Even w/ this short line, it took 2+ hours.

About 10 minutes into me waiting in line, the first Semi started up the residential road adjacent to voting line. It started honking.

hen the next Semi followed, then the 3rd. A motorcade of Semis, jeeps, and a few sedans drove down the road. All honking. All flying Trump 2020 flags. With people yelling out the window.

This motorcade snaked around the polling place the entire time I was there (2 hrs)

Let me just say that a line of Semis honking at the same time is *LOUD*. Listening to this for hours is jarring.

Election officials, who were extremely professional, could not give instructions to people in line because no one could hear them. People covered their ears.

At some point the people in line started yelling at the trucks. Some of which stopped, and started yelling back. There were enough police/officials to keep things from escalating.

But all this being said: There is no telling what Nov 3 is going to be like. Vote early!

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

[GeorgiaModerate]

Metro Atlanta weekend voters pleasantly surprised by short, efficient lines

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

??

Just another person who doesn't understand that party registration doesn't show who you're voting for.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1320341125031481345

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1320426372028895237

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it is more likely that CBS polls are wrong.

NYT/Siena has seen similar discrepancies (see Nate Cohn's Twitter feed for details).

[GeorgiaModerate]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

I'm not overlooking anything. Give me the math that can translate the actual voting data into CBS poll results.

This is just off the top of my head (I'm not going to search through the NYT crosstabs), but a plausible breakdown is:

40% D who vote 95% for Biden, 5% for Trump
30% R who vote 90% for Trump, 10% for Biden
30% other who vote 65% for Biden, 25% for Trump, 10% for a third party

The above breakdowns are consistent with numerous polls, and get you very close to a 61-36-2 Biden result.

EDIT: Fixed a couple of swapped numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1320412747310485504

[GeorgiaModerate]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

The Georgia one could definitely be right, but Texas I don't think has info like this, so I believe that's just speculation.

Oh I wasn't arguing with you -- the last month has been a spectacular learning experience for how different states handle early voting!

It's been a learning experience for the states themselves.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It really is amazing, the confidence that some people have in talking about things they don't understand.

I had a professor with a great way of saying this: "People who think they know everything are particularly annoying to those of us who really do."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MaxMMarin/status/1320774557469462530

Click to see the whole thread, which includes more details, photos, and videos.  Very interesting!

[GeorgiaModerate]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

Wouldn't it be simpler to just hit yourself in the head with a hammer?

[GeorgiaModerate]

66.666M votes

This is a turning point.

Absolutely beastly turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Steve Schale's blog post on Florida if anyone is interested

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321125538849763330?s=20

This bit was hilarious:

Dade County.    It is important to remember for those who are tweeting at me about Dade that is basically a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, stuffed into a empanada, doused with hot sauce, and barreling down I-95 at 90mph in a Honda Civic in the emergency lane with the driver leaning out the window holding a couch that is tied to nothing yet somehow balancing on the car roof in a driving rain storm with no windshield wipers, or functioning turn signals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

Take it from someone who lives in Georgia: you're completely wrong.  All three races are very competitive (the Class III Senate seat will certainly go to a runoff, but Warnock will have a decent chance there).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not even a pandemic or the potential for national VBM shenanigans will prevent Californians from waiting until Election Day to return their ballots

Could Trump somehow sabotage mail-in ballots and win California? Say, they get lost.

Please provide even a faintly plausible way this could happen.  We'll wait.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting today has been canceled or delayed in at least 16 Georgia counties due to widespread power outages from Tropical Storm Zeta.

https://www.ajc.com/news/power-outages-delay-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/G5GD22MWL5G6DMLEKJZC3BYCW4/

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that the question of whether a group of late ballots might be determinative means they have the *potential* to affect the outcome.  If there are 10,000 such ballots and the margin without them is less than that, the ballots could potentially change the outcome, and should be counted.  If the margin is larger, then those ballots can't affect the outcome, so counting them may be moot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321915632854556672

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO numbers look horrendous for the GOP.  Cory Gardner better start pitching show names to FoxNews.  "Cory's Corner"?

Cory's Garden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

The number of unreturned ballots nationally is unsettling. How many more of these can really come in before election day?

Some are already in the mail. Some are yet to be mailed, which may get them back too late or not. Some will be returned via Dropbox or to a polling place. Some will be replaced by in person votes from people who decided to do that instead. And yes, some will be nonvoters in the end. The question is: how many of these are in each group? Nobody knows, so it's pointless to fret about it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN showing huge lines in Cobb county Georgia right now.  The huge turnout continues....

Interesting.  The AJC is reporting not many lines for early voting today:

The last and largest day of early voting Friday got off to a smooth start for most metro Atlanta voters, but a few voting locations remained closed because of power failures after heavy storms.

Voters reported short lines at polling places, with the longest waits at about an hour. Some locations had no lines at all.
...
The busy day of voting is likely to break more turnout records for early voting this year. Already, 3.6 million voters have cast early or absentee ballots, 50% more than in 2016.

The final day of early voting always has the highest turnout, and Friday probably won’t be an exception. Election officials have said as many as 400,000 people could vote at 336 in-person early voting locations across Georgia on Friday.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/polls-open-for-high-turnout-on-last-day-of-georgia-early-voting/TQOKWG3E5ZGO5DEWCQNE5IGHWQ/