2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Adam Griffin]

Like I said before too, it's not an apples to apples comparison either. If the mail is delayed, or one day is a bigger count than the rest, that will easily make things look better or worse. If today was a slow mail day and not as many ballots processed, then obviously it's going to look bad next to the live daily updates from early in person where votes are being processed *that day* compared to god knows whenever the mail decides to move for the mail in ballots.

Yeah, for letter mail in general, Tuesday is likely to be the lowest volume day of the week. Common sense basically says that most local mail takes 2 days to be delivered. Mailed items on Friday and Saturday get backlogged due to no delivery on Sunday, so Monday becomes the biggest delivery day. For Tuesday delivery, there's very little in the system because Saturday and Sunday would be the days most of those items were mailed.

* I know election mail has been basically given marketing mail priority historically, but USPS has prioritized delivery to put it on par with standard letter-based mail this year

[wbrocks67]

So total EV in 2016 was 3.19 million and Dem lead was +304k. Current EV total is 3.61 million (400K more and growing) and Dem lead is +310k. That seems pretty damn good to me.

Early vote is definitely better for the Dems than in 2016.
I don't know if that is enough, and I don't think anybody knows that.

Yes 100%. We'll see where it goes from here. I have more faith now that Dems have a higher leda with 400K more voters and NPAs leaning Biden. But we'll see where we are by early next week. Is NC's last early voting day SUnday?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1321420458865106946

[MillennialModerate]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

[Horus]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

Warnock is up 14 points on Loeffler and 9 on Collins.

Joe Kennedy III is a joke. And a failure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

Take it from someone who lives in Georgia: you're completely wrong.  All three races are very competitive (the Class III Senate seat will certainly go to a runoff, but Warnock will have a decent chance there).

[tagimaucia]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

Where do your ideas about Georgia come from?  Just total nonsense. If Biden wins Georgia, will you at least post a mea culpa on the board?

[wbrocks67]

Florida up to 6.9 million. Dems have +246K lead. At this point, given the high turnout, I have to imagine that the GOP is cutting into its Election Day vote with GOPers voting early.

https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1321431325656711169

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Florida up to 6.9 million. Dems have +246K lead. At this point, given the high turnout, I have to imagine that the GOP is cutting into its Election Day vote with GOPers voting early.

https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1321431325656711169

I already asked, but just for good measure: can someone please kindly explain the purported phenomenon of "cannibalizing voters"?

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Democrats achieve the EV turnout % from 2016 with 5 days of early voting left.  Next goal, to bank tons more turnout before Sunday so they can blow past the Final 74.5% number on election day and at least match Republicans in the low 80s.




Dems have surpassed '16 EV Turnout now in 40 of 68 counties.   For comparison, at this time, Republicans have only done this in 5 counties.

Miami Dade hits 50% of all Dems registered but along with Orange county needs to keep the pressure on.  Large Hillsborough County (Tampa) has achieved '16 EV Turnout.   This might not get so much press but Dems are doing quite well in small/mid size counties.  I expect one outcome might be Trump winning these counties at much lower margins vs. '16

[wbrocks67]

Florida up to 6.9 million. Dems have +246K lead. At this point, given the high turnout, I have to imagine that the GOP is cutting into its Election Day vote with GOPers voting early.

https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1321431325656711169

I already asked, but just for good measure: can someone please kindly explain the purported phenomenon of "cannibalizing voters"?

Just in general? It just means parties are getting their votes in earlier and faster. Dems are "cannibalizing" their election day vote with vote by mail voters (i.e. more voters who typically would vote early or on election day are instead now voting mail-in), and I believe GOP is doing the same with a lot of their Election Day voters who are now already accounted for and choosing to vote early in person.

[wbrocks67]

It would appear that an underreported story here is that Dems have already hit their 2016 EV turnout with 5 days left while GOP is still 5% behind. Given FL Dems propensity to usually wait until the last minute, that seems notable.

[Inmate Trump]

It would appear that an underreported story here is that Dems have already hit their 2016 EV turnout with 5 days left while GOP is still 5% behind. Given FL Dems propensity to usually wait until the last minute, that seems notable.

And the NPA would most likely break for Biden more so than Trump, I would imagine.

[Umengus]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Better.

So this says that Trump has an advantage if the share of Democrats voting early in person minus the share of Republicans voting early in person is not substantially larger than the share of Democrats voting early by any means in 2016 minus the share of Republicans voting early by any means in 2016 because of the Democratic advantage with mail in ballots.

What hot garbage. Unsurprising you'd like it though.

it's just for the votes numbers. I don't care about the rest.

[wbrocks67]

Also, much like Nevada, this could be a big driver in FL too:

There's been a noticeable drop in mail ballots this week, telling me voters got the message about mailing them EARLY.

The mail ballots being counted this week so far seem rather small. Things like this could easily change the narrative. We don't know if it's actual less people sending them in, or just a delay in processing/mail handling

[The Other Castro]

Ralston knows he's going to predict NV for Biden, he's just building some hype. This is his style.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ralston know he's going to predict NV for Biden, he's just building some hype. This is his style.

He wants Nevada to matter, so he's going to act like it's a horserace.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

100,000 votes have been cast in Lake County, Indiana as of yesterday, about 50% of the 2012 and  2016 Presidential total. This is a county that swung 7 percentage points against the Democrats between the two elections (65% to 58%)

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know what's going on in Tennessee? Their #s are pretty incredible too.

[LabourJersey]

Ralston know he's going to predict NV for Biden, he's just building some hype. This is his style.

He wants Nevada to matter, so he's going to act like it's a horserace.

Yeah that's fair. Part of his appeal is knowing so much about the politics of a swing state. If it becomes a Democratic state he gets a lot less relevant

[Gass3268]

Nevada mail came in:

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1321378210144227330?s=21
https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1321380146809622529?s=21

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

What is Ralston even saying here? VBM ballots will continue to be counted past the weekend. Lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know what's going on in Tennessee? Their #s are pretty incredible too.

Unfortunately, they don't break down the data in TN, so hard to say. Might just be that early voting has been more accessible there for a while now and they're pretty quick at counting ballots. TN is a state that also has traditionally bad turnout, simillar to TX, which means there's a lower bar for it to surpass 2016.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

He even mentions he thinks the slow mail counting is due to staffing capacity in Clark County.