2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

[philly09]

80.4 Million Votes so far.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

Hawaii always had among the worst, if not THE worst, turnout in the country. So it probably isn't as impressive as it sounds, but still a major milestone.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

Hawaii always had among the worst, if not THE worst, turnout in the country. So it probably isn't as impressive as it sounds, but still a major milestone.

yeah but it also hasn't had heavy population growth like Texas or Georgia either.  So it's still impressive.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

In particular, Hawaii has a large Asian-American population. Although there are not that many Indian-Americans specifically, perhaps the prospect of Kamala Harris becoming the first Asian-American VP has at least a small part to do with that also. If so, Asian American turnout may be strong elsewhere, and this could be an indication to expect that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

In particular, Hawaii has a large Asian-American population. Although there are not that many Indian-Americans specifically, perhaps the prospect of Kamala Harris becoming the first Asian-American VP has at least a small part to do with that also. If so, Asian American turnout may be strong elsewhere, and this could be an indication to expect that.

I saw a chart yesterday that showed the most common name among Harris county early voters was Nguyen.

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting.  The most diverse state in the country.  Clearly minority voters are engaged in a way they weren't in 2016.  

Hey GOP - maybe sitting by idly while your party's standard bearer openly acts like a white supremacist isn't working out in a 2020 election?

In particular, Hawaii has a large Asian-American population. Although there are not that many Indian-Americans specifically, perhaps the prospect of Kamala Harris becoming the first Asian-American VP has at least a small part to do with that also. If so, Asian American turnout may be strong elsewhere, and this could be an indication to expect that.

I do think they will turn out and not just because Kamala, Trump's racism, etc.  But also because as a group they are the highest educated and Trump is anathema to educated people of all races.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321846904360230912

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Were we ever given an answer on if the total PA ballots in are all valid (in the slips) or is this just something we’ll find out the hard way on Election Day? If not, that’s f’d

[Florida Man for Crime]

I saw a chart yesterday that showed the most common name among Harris county early voters was Nguyen.

That is very interesting. There are not many swing states where higher Asian American turnout would make much difference because the Asian-American population is fairly small and somewhat concentrated in safe blue coastal states like CA and NY and VA, but among those Texas is probably the biggest one where a large increase in Asian-American turnout could make a difference, with Harris, Fort Bend, and Collin Counties being the epicenters. It could also make some difference in Georgia.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

Texas and Montana are up next. Also NY has reporting only from NYC not the whole state and they are already at 28%

[Storr]

Early vote will be open in Harris County until 7 PM tomorrow for 8 locations.

(tweet snip)

With "more than 30,000" votes so far today, that means Harris county is only 12,000 away from reaching total 2016 turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321915632854556672

[Gass3268]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

I know Philadelphia and the 4 suburban counties are starting at 7:00 AM in the morning and they are not stopping until all of the ballots are counted. Allegheny is also starting at 7:00 AM and I think they are going to count all night as well. Blair, Dauphin, Lehigh, Northampton, and York have also confirmed they are starting at 7:00 AM. Lebanon is starting only a half hour later at 7:30 AM.

Here is a spreadsheet with the information that's been made available

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Early vote will be open in Harris County until 7 PM tomorrow for 8 locations.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1321901791018127361?s=20

Travis County tweeted they have 14k today as of 3pm. They look on track to outpace yesterday. This puts Travis County at 510k and counting!

Those stupid ass Trump+4 polls are going to look real silly here next Wednesday.

[Gass3268]

Some (legit) good information from TargetSmart (using real party registration data and voter information from the public record):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321908453321953280?s=20

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321910263361249281?s=20

[Tintrlvr]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

I know Philadelphia and the 4 suburban counties are starting at 7:00 AM in the morning and they are not stopping until all of the ballots are counted. Allegheny is also starting at 7:00 AM and I think they are going to count all night as well. Blair, Dauphin, Lehigh, Northampton, and York have also confirmed they are starting at 7:00 AM. Lebanon is starting only a half hour later at 7:30 AM.

Here is a spreadsheet with the information that's been made available

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

[charcuterie]

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

But with such a large amount of absentee ballots in these places, would that really happen as quickly as closing? Is there anyone with insights into how long it would take for these huge blue counties to process these votes?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I saw a chart yesterday that showed the most common name among Harris county early voters was Nguyen.

That is very interesting. There are not many swing states where higher Asian American turnout would make much difference because the Asian-American population is fairly small and somewhat concentrated in safe blue coastal states like CA and NY and VA, but among those Texas is probably the biggest one where a large increase in Asian-American turnout could make a difference, with Harris, Fort Bend, and Collin Counties being the epicenters. It could also make some difference in Georgia.

Nguyen is a Vietnamese last name. Vietnamese-Americans are the most pro-Trump subgroup of Asian-Americans. There is a generational divide between older Vietnamese-Americans who favor Trump and the GOP, meanwhile younger Vietnamese-Americans favor Biden and the Dems.

Many older Vietnamese-Americans believe that the Democrats are "communists/socialists" and that Democrats "suck up to China". There is a historical anger among many Vietnamese people towards China because China occupied Vietnam 4 separate times in the past. Many Vietnamese people like Trump's "tough" rhetoric on China. Also, there is a decent amount of Vietnamese-Americans who are Catholic and thus they are heavily anti-abortion and anti-LGBT.

[Non Swing Voter]

Some (legit) good information from TargetSmart (using real party registration data and voter information from the public record):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321908453321953280?s=20

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321910263361249281?s=20

Sounds like Biden and Dems spent their money on targeting the right voters whereas the Trump campaign spent it on lining Brad Parscale's pockets and frivolous lawsuits.  I guess we'll find out which strategy works in 5 days.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm getting more excited about the North Carolina numbers.

Durham 2016 vote = 156k, now = 145k

Orange 2016 vote = 82k, now = 67k

Mecklenburg 2016 vote = 473k.  Now = 419k

Wake 2016 vote = 528k.  now = 453k

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations Hawaii!

[philly09]

I'm getting more excited about the North Carolina numbers.

Durham 2016 vote = 156k, now = 145k

Orange 2016 vote = 82k, now = 67k

Mecklenburg 2016 vote = 473k.  Now = 419k

Wake 2016 vote = 528k.  now = 453k

Don't forget Buncombe, home to Asheville.