Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen's daily tracker had recovered a bit the last few days, but today it's down to 43/56, a level not seen since the same reading on Oct. 25 of last year, and the worst net since 43/57 on Feb. 1, 2019.  For an approval rating below 43 we have to go back to early 2018.

Since you seem to know this stuff pretty well, I will ask-- Does movement like this from Rasmussen mean anything considering how terrible a pollster it is?

'
Hard to say.  I certainly don't put a lot of stock in Rasmussen; as you mentioned, they're pretty terrible.  I've only mentioned them recently because it's interesting (at least to me) that they've been among the few pollsters not to show any bounce for Trump, and if anything have gotten worse fo rhim.  Normally they'd have been among the first ones to show a bump for Trump.   I'm not really sure what, if anything, that signifies (suggestions are welcome!)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine: Critical Insights, 600 RV during March (exact dates not specified).  Change is from their Fall 2019 survey.

Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Maine politicians:

Sen. Collins: Approve 37 (-5), Disapprove 52 (+10)
Sen. King: Approve 59 (+4), Disapprove 21 (-8)
Gov. Mills: Approve 60 (+13), Disapprove 26 (-12)
Rep. Pingree: Approve 51 (+13), Disapprove 19 (-14)
Rep. Golden: Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 19 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, April 11-14, 1600 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Coronavirus handling (change from March): Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 54 (+3)

Biden 48 (nc), Trump 44 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 12-14, 1500 adults including 1166 RV

Adults:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)


RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

2020 (RV only): Biden 48 (nc), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 40 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kansas: PPP, April 13-14, 1271 voters

Approve 52
Disapprove 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, April 14-15, 1318 voters

Favorability, not approval, but still interesting:

Trump favorability 45
Unfavorability 50

In the 2020 matchup, it's Biden 48, Trump 47 -- despite Biden having a worse favorability (39/50).  The sample reports voting for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

Senate: Cunningham 47, Tillis 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting in the Gallup poll:

Congress may be enjoying a rally of its own, and one that may be persisting. Currently, 30% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, up from 22% in early March. Congressional members' bipartisan work that led to the recent $2 trillion stimulus package may have boosted Americans' ratings of the legislative branch to the 30% mark this month -- a feat not seen in more than a decade.

Congress' ratings ranged between 31% and 39% for most of 2009 when Barack Obama was enjoying his presidential honeymoon and working with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. In October 2009, it sank below 30% and remained below that level for the decade that followed -- including a record low of 9% in November 2013 after the federal government shutdown that fall.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308675/trump-job-rating-slides-satisfaction-tumbles.aspx

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm old enough to remember when certain posters were confidently predicting Trump's approval would be in the 50's by now.

Oh wait, that was last month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

I would've just wanted to see Ross Perot and his charts....

I remember the Capitol Steps had a guy back then who did a dead-on Perot...he was hilarious.  (Actually, the whole group is hilarious; if you're not familiar with them, check out https://www.capsteps.com/.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, April 7-14, 857 adults including 732 LV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Biden 46, Trump 32

GCB: D 40, R 28


RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 54

Biden 54, Trump 42

GCB: D 47, R 35


A dire poll for Trump from an R-leaning pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, April 7-12, 4917 adults (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Change Research, April 13-15, 1349 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Biden 50, Trump 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, April 14-16, 1992 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 47, Trump 43

With Justin Amash as the Libertarian candidate:

Biden 46, Trump 42, Amash 1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: St. Pete Polls, April 16-17, 5659 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

On coronavirus handling: 48/48

Biden 48.3, Trump 47.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: St. Pete Polls, April 16-17, 5659 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

On coronavirus handling: 48/48

Biden 48.3, Trump 47.5

He's losing to Biden while having a net positive approval rating? I don't know if I buy that. It sounds like more Florida shenanigans.

FWIW, it's consistent with a number of other polls that show Trump running a few points behind his approval rating against Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard CAPS/Harris, April 14-16, 2394 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 51

Biden 54
Trump 46

Yet another poll where Trump runs behind his approval rating against Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, April 13-15, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 46 (nc)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 32 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 49 (-3), Trump 42 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, April 11-18, 870 adults including 745 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Biden 43 (-3)
Trump 35 (+3)

GCB: D 39 (-1), R 29 (+1)


LV:

Approve 46 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Biden 52 (-2)
Trump 44 (+2)

GCB: D 46 (-1), R 38 (+3)


Reversion to the mean after last week's poll that was clearly an outlier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), April 17-20, 1100 adults including 990 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+6)
Disapprove 55 (-7)

RV:

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 19-21, 1500 adults including 1144 RV

Adults:

Approve 46 (nc)
Disapprove 47 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

COVID-19 handling: Approve 46 (+1), Disapprove 45 (-2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

COVID-19 handling: Approve 45 (+2), Disapprove 51 (-2)

2020 (RV only): Biden 48 (nc), Trump 42 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-1), R 38 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 15-21, 4429 adults including 3806 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+3)

COVID-19 handling: Approve 44 (-4), Disapprove 52 (+4)

Biden 43 (+1), Trump 36 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+4)

Biden 47 (+2), Trump 39 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, April 16-20, 1057 adults (change from late March)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

COVID-19 handling: Approve 41 (-3), Disapprove 58 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Quinnipiac, April 16-20, 1385 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

COVID-19 handling: Approve 46, Disapprove 51

Biden 46, Trump 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Quinnipiac, April 16-20, 1385 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

COVID-19 handling: Approve 46, Disapprove 51

Biden 46, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253029764060852224

That map (with NE-02 for Biden and ME-02 for Trump) is exactly the prediction I entered yesterday.