Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

I would have posted that tweet even if it was the other way around.  If you've read my posts for the last several years, you should know that I post polls and interesting items about polling regardless of which side they favor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

I would have posted that tweet even if it was the other way around.  If you've read my posts for the last several years, you should know that I post polls and interesting items about polling regardless of which side they favor.

I don't know man, I really don't know. You seem to post a lot of polls, even if they were partially mentioned in the thread, bur nor Gallup, nor ABC/WaPo pollsters... Both are live Gold Standard, both showed Removal under water and Trump gaining momentum... 


With that said, yes, these polls were of course outlier'ish and likely to bounce back, but if the same polls that showed Trump at ~40% a year ago shows him now at ~47% it tells you something.

Take a look at the record.  I've posted tons of Gallup and WaPo polls, but wasn't the one to post the two recent ones only because somebody else did it first.  I post all new ones that I find (with a few exceptions, below) but I don't have an exclusive franchise on polls and do have a life that occasionally keeps me busy doing other things.

Exceptions: I don't post any daily trackers unless they start showing unusual trends.  And I don't post McLaughlin or Zogby unless they do something particularly LOLworthy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Dakota: DFM Research, Jan. 28-Feb. 1, 600 adults

Approve 62
Disapprove 34

Strongly approve 48
Strongly disapprove 28

GE matchups (second pair of numbers is among LV, but the subsample size is not listed)

Trump 59, Biden 34 (57/38)
Trump 61, Sanders 32 (60/35)
Trump 59, Klobuchar 33 (57/36)
Trump 59, Bloomberg 32 (56/36)
Trump 62, Warren 31 (59/34)
Trump 59, Buttigieg 31 (57/34)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, Feb. 4-5, 1989 RV (this isn't the usual Politico tracker, but I'll use that for comparison since it's MC's next most recent RV poll - Jan. 29-30)

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting enough that none of Atlas Democrats is talking about the new "TheHill/HarrisX" Poll which pegs the Presidents JA at 49/51. The Hill isn't Trumps favorable Pollster.

The Economy added 225K Jobs in January far more compared to what Analysts were predicting.

I asked this again: Why the heck would you toss out a President with these kind of Job Numbers?

Because the economy isn’t the only thing that matters. Also his job numbers lag behind Obama’s who you b*tched about nonstop over petty things like tan suits and coffee salutes so you guys hypocrisy on this issue is duly noted

Obamas Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009 (or Stimulus as it was called) was the biggest trainwreck in the United States History. Biggest of jokes entirely. I still loathe Susan Collins for voting for it. Specter lost in the Primary the year after and Dems lost that Senate Seat consequently and Snowe isn't in Office anymore. I won't cry one bit if Collins loses this year. I even would give up the Senate Majority for getting these Moderate RINOS out of Office once and for all.

Collins must go, Portman must go (hopefully in 2022), Murkowski must go (2022), Romney must go (2024)

I want a total conservative Republican Caucus in the House & Senate, a Caucus who doesn't make the slightest of deals if the next President is a Democrat.

Tim Geitner was a joke compared to Steven Mnuchin. Obama had bad Economic People.

Trump should relentlessly hammer the Message: Democrats create Mobs, Republicans create Jobs.

As others have pointed out, fewer jobs have been created during Trump's three years in office than during Obama's last three years.  In fact, Trump's best year falls short of any of Obama's last three.  But keep trying - you'll get it right one of these days!

[GeorgiaModerate]

To give Trump credit, he does not drink.

Perhaps he should start.  It might make him lighten up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker, Feb. 7-9, 1996 RV (prior poll Feb. 4-5)

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Following questions not asked in prior poll:

Definitely vote for Trump 33
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 6
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 41, someone else 51)

GCB: D 45, R 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another weirdly mixed bag from YouGov:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 46 (+3), No 41 (-1)

Should Trump have been removed? Yes 45 (+2), No 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 50 (+1), No 44 (-2)

Should Trump have been removed? Yes 48 (nc), No 44 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (-1), Trump 41 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 10-11, 1114 adults including 959 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Tarrance Group (R), Jan. 14-16, 500 LV

Approve 48
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 46
Sanders 47, Trump 47

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb. 12-13, 1530 RV (this is not the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker)

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Feb. 14-17, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Biden 52, Trump 44
Bloomberg 50, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 46
Buttigieg 48, Trump 44
Klobuchar 48, Trump 45
(Warren vs Trump not polled)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 16-18, 1500 adults including 1150 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 30 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 18-19, 1113 adults including 951 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


This continues a recent trend in which most live-interview polls have shown a steady improvement for Trump, while online surveys have remained more or less stable.  G. Elliott Morris has suggested that a partisan response effect is responsible for at least part of this difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Survey USA, Feb. 13-17, 2768 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

I can't find a recent prior for comparison, but they're a good pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Feb. 13-16, 1074 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-4)

I believe this is Trump's best-ever result in this poll, which is usually a bad one for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Feb. 13-18, 1207 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-5)

This is one of several recent polls where we've seen *both* strong approval and strong disapproval dropping significantly, while the overall approval/disapproval numbers don't move much.  My theory is that the impeachment hearings and trial fanned partisan feelings on both sides and drove more people into the strong categories.  Now that the trial is over, that effect is fading.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Feb. 17-20, 1100 adults including 993 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

RV:

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (nc)

(Note: 538 currently has the RV approval erroneously listed as 36/50.  I've sent them an email about it.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't disagree with Nate Silver.  Trump's approval has clearly improved over the last couple months.  But at the same time, there is definitely a noticeable separation in that trend between live-caller and online polls, which has led to the partisan response bias theory promoted by Elliott Morris among others.  I suspect that they're both right to some degree: Trump's approval is improving, but the movement appears greater among live-caller polls due to response bias.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1230888902766014470

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, Feb. 23, 1990 RV (prior poll Feb. 15-17).  This was a post-Nevada flash poll, not their usual tracker with Politico.

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 23-25, 1500 adults including 1184 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 19-25, 4439 adults including 3809 RV (this is a much larger sample than usual - no idea why)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)


RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)