Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Jan 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

RV:

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump hit 51 in Rasmussen one day last week, which is likely what he's referring to.  It was just a one-shot, though, and went back into the 40's the next day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, Jan. 13-15, 1996 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 42

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 30
Probably Trump 9
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 39, someone else 52)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Dec. 20-30, 1215 adults (usual caveats about polling during the holidays; prior poll Nov. 7-12)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 19-21, 1500 adults including 1176 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 43 (+1), No 42 (-1)


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (nc), No 47 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 47 (+1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 44 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-2), R 43 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the Pew poll: https://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/01/1-22-20-Impeachment-for-release-2.0.pdf.  Last poll (September) was 40/59.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Jan. 16-21, 1353 adults (prior poll Dec. 5-9)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 45, No 40 (strongly 42/33)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Jan. 16-21, 1353 adults (prior poll Dec. 5-9)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 45, No 40 (strongly 42/33)

If the numbers hold up to November 3 and the Democratic nominee isn't going nuts, the God Emperor will be in serious trouble.

The numbers look terrible, but a couple of cautionary points:

1. It's a poll of all adults, not of voters.

2. AP/NORC is consistently one of Trump's worse pollsters.  538 adjusted this result to 43/54.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 21-22, 1108 adults including 899 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)


Zzzzzz...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval is now at -12.0 in the 538 average, returning to levels seen in late Nov. and early Dec.  This has pretty much erased the holiday bump (it got as close as -8.2 a week before Christmas).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wanna bet that Trump tweets something unfavorable about Fox polling again?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: NBC/Marist, Jan. 20-23, 2604 adults including 2223 RV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 43


RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 46

GDB: D 47, R 42

Buttigieg 51, Trump 41
Biden 51, Trump 43
Sanders 51, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac 1/28

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

Same as their two previous polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 27-28, 1118 adults including 950 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

Thank God the GCB number bounced back.

Last week sure looked like an outlier at the time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back down it goes:

Ipsos (January 27 and 28)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%

I posted that one yesterday morning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Jan. 16-22, 1212 adults (change from Nov.)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, Jan. 28-29, 1202 adults

Approve 43
Disapprove 51

R: 89/10
D: 9/87
I: 40/49

Is there anything Donald Trump could do or say as president that could change your mind about his job performance, or not?

Yes 28
No 70

R: 29/69
D: 22/76
I: 31/65

[GeorgiaModerate]

A state we don't see too often:

Tennessee: Mason-Dixon, Jan. 28-30, 625 RV

Approve 57
Disapprove 42

Interesting geographic breakdown:

East Tennessee: 61/38
Middle Tennessee: 56/32
West Tennessee: 53/46

Further right on map => further right voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1277 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 43 (-4), No 42 (+1)

Remove Trump: Yes 43 (-1), No 41 (-2)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 49 (-1), No 46 (+1)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+1), No 45 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 39 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 3-4, 1114 adults including 932 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-4)


RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-4)

Kind of a weird disconnect between the overall movement and those with strong feelings.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1225159360084660225