Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

You aren't taking into account Newton's First Law of Motion. If Trump has risen to 46%, his momentum will carry him upward to 47%, 48%, and possibly to 49%.

Uggh. I hate when people actually try to apply Newton's Laws outside of physics. Especially Newton's 3rd Law of Motion, which is often described as "For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction." A clever restatement that lends itself to forces and processes outside of physics. A better statement would be that for every force there is an equal and opposite force. And it's not even true! It only works for electrostatics, magnetostatics, and weak gravity.

His comment was undoubtedly satirical.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, Feb. 14-17, 1299 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

R: 88/11 (strongly 57/5)
D: 10/88 (4/77)
I: 36/58 (11/40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: NBC/Marist, Feb. 23-27, 2530 adults including 2120 RV

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 37

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 38

GCB (RV only): D 46, R 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yahoo News/YouGov, Feb. 26-27, 1662 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disaprove 48

GCB: D 51, R 40

Biden 50, Trump 41
Sanders 48, Trump 42
Warren 47, Trump 43
Buttigieg 46, Trump 43
Bloomberg 43, Trump 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Feb. 20-29, 908 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

This is Trump's lowest rating in this poll since November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Feb. 17-28, 1020 adults (2-week change)

Approve 47 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: UGA, Feb. 24-March 2, 1117 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 46

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 39

Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump 52, Sanders 41
Trump 40, Bloomberg 42
Trump 52, Warren 42

I don't doubt that Trump is popular/ahead here, but this seems a little too favorable for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 1-3, 1500 adults including 1134 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 51 (+3), R 38 (-2)


Interesting movement in the GCB when everything else was fairly stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 2-3, 1115 adults including 943 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Take your pick of Morning Consult RV polls:


Morning Consult/Politico, Feb. 28-March 1, 1992 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 42


Morning Consult, March 1, 1995 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of new PPP polls:

Arizona: PPP, March 2-3, 666 RV

Trump approval: 45/51

Biden 48, Trump 47
Trump 47, Sanders 46


Maine: PPP, March 2-3, 672 RV

Trump approval: 42/56

Biden 52, Trump 42
Sanders 52, Trump 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP: March 2-3, 866 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

I don't see a recent prior from PPP for comparison.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, March 5-8, 1261 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 47 (nc)


Biden 52, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 42

Favorability:

Biden 45/40 (+5)
Sanders 40/46 (-6)
Trump 39/58 (-19)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, March 4-7, 1211 adults including 1084 RV (change from Jan.)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

In "battleground states" (AZ, CO, FL, GA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI):

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

RV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 8-10, 1500 adults including 1191 RV

(NOTE: This week's sample is more R-friendly than usual for this poll, while last week's was more D-friendly.  Averaging them is probably a sound idea.)

Adults:

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

---

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

GCB: D 47 (-4), R 42 (+4)

2020 (specific matchups not asked in prior polls):

Generic D 48 (nc), Trump 42 (+2)
Biden 47, Trump 43
Sanders 47, Trump 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 9-10, 1113 adults including 961 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

--

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, March 6-8, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of new PPP polls:

Kansas: March 10-11, 1567 RV

Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Trump leads both Biden and Sanders 52-40.


Wisconsin: March 10-11, 1727 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 45
Sanders 48, Trump 46

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, March 11-13, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 46 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 33 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Biden 52, Trump 43
Sanders 49, Trump 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, March 2-13, 1019 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Gallup noted a discernable increase in Trump's approval rating around the time he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate. Now, his approval rating is back to where it was before that bounce. Whether the decline reflects the fading of the post-acquittal rally or a reaction to the emerging coronavirus threat is unclear.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 15-17, 1500 adults including 1129 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+4)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only):

Generic D 48 (nc), Trump 40 (-2)
Biden 48 (+1), Trump 41 (-2)
Sanders 48 (+1), Trump 41 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+2), R 39 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

I am not familiar with this particular tracking poll. Does it often have misleading static?

It has variation that's quite normal for the sample sizes they typically use; the margin of error is +/- 3.3% for adults, 3.6% for RV.  This kind of variation is normal for this poll and IMO is a healthy sign.  When a pollster is consistently stable with very little variation, I get a little suspicious.  (For example, during the 2016 campaign, SurveyMonkey published a weekly head-to-head that was exactly the same for something like 10 weeks in a row, and within +/-1 for 16 or so weeks.  That kind of stability is extraordinarily unlikely.)