2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

It's possible but will still be difficult because R crossover in Maricopa county has generally been higher than D crossover and Indies leaned D this year.

So it's possible

[forsythvoter]

How much money do you have tied up in betting markets on this lol? Not a good bet

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Even Nevada, Georgia and Arizona?

Percent Trump will win:

Georgia: 99%
Arizona: 90%
Nevada: 75%

You have Trump as a favourite in Nevada?

Slightly to more Probable

[forsythvoter]

There's more in Fulton too. NYT doesn't have the right numbers. Still about 195K ballots out given last update was about 5K.

Trump's lead just fell to 79K in Georgia.

If there really is more than 10% left in DeKalb, Clayton, Bibb, Chatham, Dougherty, and Muscogee, Biden should take the lead.

[forsythvoter]

They would have been rejected ballots so not included in ballots to be counted which is where the 200K figure represented.

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

I think your signature goes on the outside of the envelope, so I think those ballots would have been rejected before getting sorted and prepped for counting.

[forsythvoter]

I'm pretty confident PA will end up going Biden by 2% or so.

Wow. 20K new batch from Bucks County and it is 78% Biden, 22% Trump.

Before: Bucks (300k): Trump 53.2%, Biden 45.5% (Trump +7.7)
After: Bucks (320k): Trump 51.2%, Biden 47.5% (Trump +3.7)

Nearly 60K mail ins still to be counted in Bucks.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeSolis/status/1324011661200601088

[forsythvoter]

I ran an analysis of the oustanding PA ballots. If they go 80% Biden (which is actually below the support rates he's been receivng in most counties), he's on track to win PA by about 200K or about 51-48%. Actually will be the to the left of MI and WI.

PA looking good for Biden - honestly it might not even end up that close.

[forsythvoter]

I was just thinking GA is going to look quite out of place for 4 years if Biden pulls it off but falls short in NC

Kind of beautiful being able to look at blue Wisconsin and Michigan again. The 2016 map is so ugly.

[forsythvoter]

The real question is how similar to the already counted vote will these ballots be. If they are mail-in votes (which I believe the networks are saying), I think Biden is heavily favored to take GA because those ballots are likely MORE Dem than the already counted vote. If it's election day ballots, then I think Trump is favored.

Anyways, I am still skeptical about a Biden win in Georgia, but it’s not impossible with what we have left. Still a lot of votes left in Albany and some in the Atlanta suburbs, it’s feasible.

[forsythvoter]

Red mirage, the remaining 30% will go 95-5 Biden if they are anything like the last few batches.

With 70% of the vote in so far. Philly has swung R interestingly.

[forsythvoter]

That would certainly be the case if this were election day results by precinct. These are all mail-in ballots though so they are randomly distributed across the city.

Red mirage, the remaining 30% will go 95-5 Biden if they are anything like the last few batches.

With 70% of the vote in so far. Philly has swung R interestingly.

I would imagine you see big swings across precincts in an urban area like that depending in what part of town it is.

[forsythvoter]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still had additional mal-in ballots that were received yesterday but not processed until now. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

[forsythvoter]

Dekalb and Clayton are probably the big ones that could net Biden 50K votes. The mid-sized cities look like they could net Biden around 25K or so. The additoinal votes from Cobb, Gwinnett may add a few thousand more. Trump is up less than 60k.

Most of the counties in GA with votes out are heavily Biden but they're not Fulton/Gwinnett size. It's going to be tight.

Stunned

[forsythvoter]

Yeah that was my bad.I mistook it for a different state so took down the post.

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still allows mail-in ballots that are received through this Friday to count. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

We don't allow absentee ballots to be received by Friday.  They must have been received by poll closing time yesterday.  But those that arrived (via mail or dropbox) in the last day or two are still being processed.

[forsythvoter]

Wow, the last batch of Forsyth votes actually went D. Assuming they are all mail-in votes at this point.

Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

I predicted 65-35.  Would love to see it come down to that number with the remaining absentees, if any.

[forsythvoter]

Trump's at 50.0% right now. Up by 57K votes

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

Running behind Trump?

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, we are looking at a very likely Blue GA given how the votes have been coming in.

Yeah, I don't know much discussion there's been, but...Biden's favored in Georgia at this point. If he wins 70% of what's left, he wins by 20k votes (not including any mail ballots that arrive by Friday and/or provisionals, both of which skew heavily D).

[forsythvoter]

I could see this happening. He also did quite well this election all considering so I imagine he would be the R frontrunner if he chose to run.

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

[forsythvoter]

Up to 200K now that Fulton has processed the mail-ins they received yesterday.

How much vote is left in Georgia?

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, I'm projecting Biden win end up winning by about 30-40K when it's all said and done.

If that's the case then Biden should win Georgia

[forsythvoter]

Folks can probably stop panicking about AZ and NV since GA is looking all but gone for Trump at this point with where the outstanding ballots are coming from.

[forsythvoter]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

[forsythvoter]

GA SOS says there are 98K ballots left to count. Trump lead is 33K so Biden needs a 2-1 margin among these ballots to win. He's been getting about 75-85% so far among the last few batches.

[forsythvoter]

NBC reporting Trump campaign just filed a lawsuit to stop the vote counting in Chatham County, GA (Savannah)

[forsythvoter]

The latest Fulton batch was Biden +18K but isn't in the NYT map yet

It’s close, but where are you getting 12k from?

[forsythvoter]

Fulton just released another batch of absentees. It will go down to 12K once the latest Fulton absentees are included.

Every election site I have open shows Trump ahead in Georgia with 29-30k ahead.

Where does the 12k number come from?