2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

Lol, one of my friends woke my wife and me up screaming that Biden won WI and now here I am. It does look like WI is going to Biden by ~1%. Congrats, team blue.

MI and GA also looking good for Biden given outstanding votes. PA really just depends on how D the mail-ins really are.

[forsythvoter]

Almost everything is in now. I'm not even sure 30K votes total remain and Biden leads by about 20K. Remaining votes also lean D, so hard to see how Trump cuts let alone eliminates the deficit.

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

[forsythvoter]

I'm still doing the calculations, but it's starting to look like the votes are there in MI for a Biden win assuming Biden can replicate Hillary's margins in Wayne...more to come

[forsythvoter]

Hey folks, Biden is going to win MI and it's not even going to be all that close. He's only down 70k right now, with only an 87K margin out of Wayne (Hillary won by 250K plus). Detroit alone is going to give Biden a lead.

[forsythvoter]

Remaining Green Bay votes are from city of Green Bay, which was Hillary +4K or so

I’m sorry but what are you guys seeing that gives Wisconsin to Biden?! 9k is not holding up

The remaining vote is basically all absentee votes which will either go slightly to Biden or heavily to Biden.

Even the Green Bay ones?

[forsythvoter]

Morning everyone! Bumping up this post since it looks like no new updates from GA since then. I am open btw to debating the methodology - just the facts and data please.

Update: It looks like a few more votes have come in and I've rerun the analysis for ALL GA counties with 3% or more of the vote outstanding.

Trump's lead: 102K
Vote count in counties with more than 3% of vote outstanding: Biden 1,494K-854K (640K lead)
Vote count in these counties if remaining votes vote the same way as existing ballots: Biden by 1,766K-988K (778K lead)

Estimated outcome: Biden + 36K once all votes are in (in line with the NYT needle).

So Biden's would net 138K from the remaining outstanding ballots if they vote the same way as existing ballots. We know that about 100K Fulton mail-ins are part of this group, but not sure about the other counties.

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

[forsythvoter]

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

[forsythvoter]

The Cuban voters in Miami-Dade seem to think so apparently

So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yup. We're on the steady path to full communism. Trotsky-Bidenism will prevail.

[forsythvoter]

Gotcha - well add 100k to Biden's margin then. 51-48%

Wouldn't it be impossible to make up Trump's gap if there are only 600K mail ballots left?

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

No, I mean Trumps lead is only 600 right now

[forsythvoter]

For what it's worth, I hope both parties put more attention and resources on GA instead of our neighbor to the south. Turns out we're more swingable!

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

[forsythvoter]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

[forsythvoter]

In theory, yes. If those remaining ballots follow same distribution as the counted ballots in their counties, Biden would end up with about a 30K lead. While a big chunk of these are mail-in votes which lean even more D than the other votes, this is not guaranteed to be the case which is why it's a tossup.

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

[forsythvoter]

Michigan is gone for Trump. PA and GA are the ones to watch now

Wayne County new batch

Biden 41372
Trump 20570

Still reasonable amount of vote remaining.

[forsythvoter]

Is that the first time in recent history Forsyth has given a D more than 30% for president?

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

Yes, Bourdeaux has declared victory although McCormick has not conceded.  Since she's at 51.15% with all of Forsyth County in (the more R part of the district) she's got it.

(btw, Forsyth wound up going 67-31 Trump, down from 71-24 in 2016 and not too far off my prediction of 65-35).

[forsythvoter]

Do you not realize there are 375K ballots outstanding in metro Atlanta and Trump is up 87K votes? I feel like you are just ignoring the data and willing Trump to win lol.

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[forsythvoter]

Sorry that was from earlier this mroning. Just heard an update from GA SOS that there are 250K left.

Do you not realize there are 375K ballots outstanding in metro Atlanta and Trump is up 87K votes? I feel like you are just ignoring the data and willing Trump to win lol.

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

There’s like 150k ballots left total in the state, where are you getting 375k from?

[forsythvoter]

Last batch of votes went 20K-3K Biden from DeKalb

Watching the PA and Georgia margins drop minute by minute.

Drip. Drip.

Has Trump margin really dropped much in either?  I'm not seeing any drastic movements yet.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, Biden's NV margin will increase if it follows the trajectory of other mail-in ballots.

Talcum X is worried:

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1324037740334338048?s=20

Nevada will go Biden, especially since it's more mail-in ballots.

[forsythvoter]

The swings in WI are super fascinating. Atlas is going to a field day analyzing all the results once we get the complete results. Looks like Biden won because of a few factors:
1) D Turnout in Milwaukee County: Hillary won +162K, while Biden won it by +183K
2) D Turnout in Dane County: Hillary won +132K, while Biden won it by +181K
3) Decreased R margins in WOW: Hillary lost by -104K, while Biden lost them by -97K depite a huge turnout increase

Combined, these 3 areas gave Hillary a net margin of +180K, while Biden won them by +267K

In the rest of WI, Hillary lost by -203K, while Biden lost by -246k!

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.

[forsythvoter]

Looking at MI and PA, basically the red mirage happened in the Midwestern states. It looks like both on track to go Biden by 2-3%, maybe a touch more for PA if the absentee ballot returns continue at this 80%+ Biden pace.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, in addition to metro ATL, there's still votes out in the mid-sized cities and black belt counties. All Democratic strongholds.

With Muskegon County pretty much on a knife's edge tilting towards Trump for the whole reporting period, very curious about the final extent of the Mahoning Effect. No surprises here in Maryland, Biden breaks FredCo out of the Class of '64 as predicted in 2018 and puffs up a hair on the Eastern Shore, all expected stuff. Georgia is becoming a real nail-biter with so much from the metros and Sanford Bishop's country still outstanding.

There's outstanding vote from GA-02?

[forsythvoter]

I'm actually glad to hear Collins wins. We need more moderate members in the Senate from both parties.

[forsythvoter]

They're mostly from Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton where Biden is getting 72%, 83%, 85% respectively.

Hmm, according to NYT there are over 200k ballots left in Georgia.

To overcome Trump's 87k vote lead, Biden needs around 72% of the vote.

This could very well happen, folks.

[forsythvoter]

If there are 200,000 ballots left and Perdue has 2,382,000 with 50.8%, he would need to get 31% of the remaining ballots to avoid a runoff. He has 29%, 17%, and 13% in Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton right now.

So I'm guessing Perdue probably will narrowly fail to avoid a runoff.

They're mostly from Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton where Biden is getting 72%, 83%, 85% respectively.

Hmm, according to NYT there are over 200k ballots left in Georgia.

To overcome Trump's 87k vote lead, Biden needs around 72% of the vote.

This could very well happen, folks.

How do you think this affects the Perdue-Ossoff race?

[forsythvoter]

I actually agree with this. We should always count all the votes regardless of which party is ahead or behind. That includes NV. That includes AZ. That includes GA. And yes, that includes PA.

https://twitter.com/dougducey/status/1324054428886867969?s=19

Ducey keeping it professional, I'll give him respect for that. I'm sure he has bigger ambitions and could probably challenge Kelly in 2022 but I doubt he makes that move. Maybe runs for President in 2022.