Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

How does Lula wins zero Center-West states though if he’s projected to have more votes than Bolsonaro in the North/Center-West demographic?

Is his lead in Amazonas and Pará THAT big to put him over the edge regardless of Bolsonaro numbers and supposed lead in Center-West only? Unless Bolsonaro only barely wins Goiás but it’s tied or something. Which in that case it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if it flipped red either.

IPEC per Region

Southeast - Lula +11
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 32%

Northeast - Lula +45
Lula 63%
Bolsonaro 18%

South - Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%

North + Center-West - Lula +4
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 38%

[Red Velvet]

Could there be any better comparison to the 2020 US presidential election? This is giving me so many 2020 vibes. Lula is obviously Biden here: popular elder statesman who comes back from retirement because he's best suited to oust an authoritarian demagogue who's unfit for the office and who stokes doubts on the process. Bolsonaro may very well not concede, like his orange role model.

Lula will probably have a much easier win than Biden though.

US 2020 - Biden +4,4 margin

Biden 51,3%
Trump 46,9%

Brazil 2022 (IPEC) valid votes - Lula +17,5 margin

Lula 51,6%
Bolsonaro 34,1%

Brazil 2022 (Datafolha) valid votes - Lula +12,8 margin

Lula 47,9%
Bolsonaro 35,1%

[Red Velvet]

New Datafolha Poll

Group: Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro, Simone

Income
<2 MW: 52, 27, 7, 3
2-5 MW: 40, 39, 9, 5
5-10 MW: 35, 40, 11, 6
>10 MW: 32, 41, 8, 14

I’m guessing this refers to monthly income in thousands of Reals?

If this link is accurate I’m guessing these brackets correspond to the Bottom 70%, 70-90th percentile, 90-97(?)th percentile, and Top 2-3% of income earners?

No one knows for sure because the government postponed the census that should’ve happened in 2020…

There are different estimates regarding the proportion of population, but this is one of them yeah

I know polling institutes use different proportions to calculate their numbers… Datafolha (which has different income groups than IPEC) considers 50% has 1 MW or less (which aligns with this link you posted), while Quaest considers only 38% has 1 MW or less

So at least 70% of the electorate having 2 MW or less goes in line with Datafolha (not sure about IPEC estimates, but it must be similar since they align more with Datafolha than Quaest) sounds about right.

2 MW or less —> Bottom 75%
2 MW - 5 MW —> Between 9% - 25% richest
5 MW - 10 MW —> Between 4% - 9% richest
10 MW or more —> Top 4%

And 1 MW or less would be around the Bottom 50%.

[Red Velvet]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

[Red Velvet]

New DATAFOLHA

Lula 47% (+2)
Bolsonaro 33% (0)
Ciro 7% (-1)
Simone 5% (0)

In valid votes: no one can predict if there will be a runoff or not.

Lula 50%
Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro 7%
Simone 5%

Runoff scenario: Lula 59% vs Bolsonaro 41%

1st round BY REGION:

Southeast
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 36%

Northeast
Lula 62%
Bolsonaro 24%

South
Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 39%

North
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 36%

Center-West
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%

- The race looking to be tied in the Center-West shows that either it’s a very slight Bozo win in all or there’s at least one state there where Lula can have a slight win. IMO that would be Goiás instead of Mato Grosso do Sul.

[Red Velvet]

I cannot believe this exists but I found an actually funny and accurate gringo video about the Brazilian election. This is hilarious.

Honest Brazilian Government campaign ad, shared by Aussies:

https://www.twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1573101166635798528

[Red Velvet]

Lula is the candidate of the low income people, Bolsonaro is the candidate of the high income people

What this chart tells me is that Lula is the overwhelming choice of low income Brazilians and that people with higher incomes are split between Lula and Bolsonaro

https://www.twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1570207269677064193
Oliver Stuenkel talks about the weirdness when international executives meet with Brazilian executives about the election because it’s very different logic than what happened in say, USA.

The harsh class divide that exists here and LatAm isn’t nearly a thing in US (where it’s substituted with a racial debate). Many executives in US supported Biden for example DESPITE promises of elevating corporate tax. Biden was the urban candidate. So they get surprised when meeting Brazilian executives and discovering that they broadly support Bolsonaro.

You’re right in your analysis btw. Bolsonaro tried to appeal to lower class segments but they did not move because Lula has an established wall there with the poorest that can’t be deconstructed.

Meanwhile the richest, which overwhelmingly backed Bolsonaro in 2018, are now more divided like you said. The big dumb elites, entrepreneurs, executives and people who just hate the poor in general still are on board with Bolsonaro but I think he gained some backlash amongst some higher education segments amongst the richest, especially with the female electorate, because of his actions and words during his government.

When he made fun of the pandemic for example, that was something that affected him a lot. Another recent example is when he called himself “Imbrochável” - unfloppable - on our 200th independence anniversary. That toxic masculinity stuff just doesn’t fare well with the women electorate.

Which basically means that besides not gaining any populist ground with the poor, who remain loyally solidified around Lula, he also lost a lot of wealthier upper class female voters in comparison to past election who just get really offended by the shocking stuff he says so naturally. He lost some ground with wealthier male voters too, but I argue this was a much stronger phenomenon with women. COVID dismissal and threats to democracy were general backlash, regardless of gender, but the attacks against female journalists and sexual references he makes have much more damage in female segments.

It will be much bigger humiliating defeat than Trump because of that since Trump and his populism at least had some level of penetration amongst the poorest and he could sell himself to them as the “anti-elite” candidate despite being a millionaire. Bolsonaro cannot in any shape sell himself to the poor in that way - he’s broadly seen as the elites candidate, exception only maybe being in some lower class suburbs of Rio de Janeiro where some people told me Lula was the candidate of the university students lmao

But as I said Rio behaves weirdly, especially after Bolsonaro surged - Lula is expected to perform better in the upper class neighborhoods here in Rio, in reversal to what generally happens in the rest of the country.

[Red Velvet]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

50/50 as of right now

Low but not nearly impossible I would guess, he won’t want to risk going to jail but he could be enough crazy/dumb to do it. Not much that he can do by himself only though.

Close to zero, the public and institutional mood is in a different direction, sick from Bolsonaro. US can immediately recognize the electoral results as soon as they come out and congratulate Lula as the elected president, that’s it.

[Red Velvet]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

[Red Velvet]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

Brazil is currently in a very dark place. Killings-per-Arrest is currently 1,600 times higher in Brazil than the United States.

“Per Arrest”? What is this? In the US inflated for-business capitalist penitenciary system where it’s more game to find more and more people to arrest and be put in jail for the sake of corporate profit? LMAO

You want to compare police violence you can pretty well use the police murders numbers overall since our populations numbers are somewhat comparable and Brazil will already be much more violent than US without the need for using this “per arrest” thing to make you look much better when it’s precisely the inflated arrest thing that is the main problem in the USA. One single police operation inside a Rio favela to “search for drugs” is already is a mini-genocide to some degree. Watch Oscar-nominated “City of God” to have some idea of how it works.

Top 10 biggest annual police killings:
1. Philippines — 6,069+ (avg 2016-2021—includes only deaths during anti-drug operations)
2. Brazil — 5,804 (2019)
3. Venezuela — 5,287 (2018)
4. India — 1,731 (2019)
5. Syria — 1,497 (2019)
6. El Salvador — 1087 (2017)
7. United States — 946 (2020)
8. Nigeria — 841 (2018)
9. Afghanistan — 606 (2018)
10. Pakistan — 495 (2017)

Violence levels overall is high, including but not nearly just from police. Police is inherently violent regardless, but in more violent environments they naturally adapt proportionally for even their self-survival.

One necessary urgent policy for the matter is full decriminalization of abortion and most drugs. I don’t accept arguments that are against those two when their correlation with violence is proved at this point.

But as always, religion being put over science is the main problem stuck in the way. Necessary to have someone bold to tackle this stuff and who puts the F-ing crazy Christians in their place.

Unfortunately, I don’t see anyone doing this now or in the near future. Lula certainly ain’t it, he’s boring conciliatory moderate with center-left sprinkles who’s already kissing the evangelicals rugged ass in the name of national conciliation. When the left should be going for blood instead.

Abortion may come (limited to three months only though, not enough as I defend no limits at all) by the Supreme Court soon in order to follow Argentina and Colombia steps but the drugs debate is even more important. The war on drugs is undeniably a FAILURE on all aspects and every/any country that engages on it should rethink its priorities when talking about diminishing crime or violence, because it’s the opposite of everything they defend that is the actual path to solution.

[Red Velvet]

I am watching the presidential debate

Waste of time imo. I’m hearing it somewhat from the room next door and it feels so cheap and with lazy prepared lines. It’s clear that it’s all very rehearsed by them. And that random priest who I didn’t even know was a candidate manages to be way way cringier than the NOVO guy.

It actually makes me think Lula did right thing by not going and I want to vote more for him after looking at these other options. Trash politicians all around. Ciro and Simone are somewhat more serious but still look ridiculous just by participating on that stage.

[Red Velvet]

Also, these people are fully disconnected with Brazil. They sounded like they thought this was 2018 instead of 2022. I get it’s that the fake Priest made it look like a full circus and intoxicated the whole thing, but no one else did much favor to themselves in addition to that. The low level I see in politics nowadays is quite sad. It wasn’t like that in 00s, when the PSDB opposition sounded prepared and smart!

If I had absolutely no context to who these people were, I would think Bolsonaro was the better one by default, which is evidence of how everyone looked like a joke lol. Honestly, very smart decision of Lula to skip this sh**tshow and decide to go just to the Globo one next week. I’m sure the Globo final debate on Thursday will be much better (and get better audience) by just not inviting joke candidates to speak.

No one gives a f*** about corruption narratives anymore, damn it. I wanted to warn these candidates of that while hearing snippets of the debate. It’s sooo 2010s, drop the disk, it’s just obvious that the economic concerns are the main topic this elections for anyone who is minimally connected with reality.

The Bolsominions appropriated that morality rhetoric in 2018 and now people saw Bolsonaro be corrupt as hell and the polls still show Lula and Bolsonaro leading with >80% combined. No one cares! Even in 2010s it was mostly only a pretext just used to validate other kinds of dissatisfactions.

These third party nobodies hope they can break the polarization by screaming corruption to the top 2 candidates but no one really cares outside maybe some very few upper class people who didn’t lose their purchasing power in last four years and don’t really have ANY other thing to say they’re mad about.

It’s such a tired disk to not talk about actual proposals and hide behind some abstract unproved moral purity. It may stick in specific times to mobilize some bunch but people always eventually get reminded these random moral crusaders from Jânio to Collor to Bolsonaro only choose that rhetoric because there was nothing else possible in their favor.

[Red Velvet]

Anyway, unlike the BAND debate where the 3rd candidates shined and Lula and Bolsonaro “lost”, I feel like Bolsonaro and Lula (even by not going) are the weak winners of this debate and the 3rd candidates looked like a joke this time, thanks to fake priest lowering the level of the discussion - which dumbed everyone down and naturally makes Bolsonaro look better.

Not that this SBT debate will influence anything like the previous BAND one that at least assured some small temporary growth for the 3rd candidates on the polls. Audience is bound to be much smaller, making this a nothing burguer.

[Red Velvet]

You compare the levels of the debates of today with the ones from 10-20 years ago and I start feeling we’re in the movie “Idiocracy” in fast forward.

You used to have only serious candidates on the debates and maybe one joke candidate for the comedic purposes. It worked! Nowadays, the joke candidates dominate and they include the actual president, while the serious options on the debate (Ciro and Simone Tebet) are a minority now and diminish their stature by participating in conversations with these people. Not their fault, but they looked ridiculous just by being there.

[Red Velvet]

I just read that this Kelmon priest guy is part of the integralist movement (ACTUAL old-school Brazilian fascism) and saw pictures of him in an integralist event.

Everyone who criticized Lula’s decision of not going flopped so hard lmao. It clearly ended up being one of the smartest campaign decisions. SBT trash TV inviting these types of people to talk on TV, doesn’t deserve any attention.

I trust Globo way more as serious TV channel to not call this Kelmo guy

[Red Velvet]

This last week I think the momentum is on Lula’s side because it’s when the “Voto útil” starts happening - with more voters feeling pressure to not “waste” their vote and end the election. That’s why he is showing last minute growth in the polls.

It has potential to be easy 1st round win if polls are right. But big deciding factor will be the level of abstention in the day. Polls work with the idea of the usual general abstention of 20% - 21%

Analysts say if abstention is higher than 21% then it’s bad sign for Lula and the 1st round win because it’s bound to be driven by uninterest in lower class segments - which is the most pro-Lula one as vote falls between class lines: Poor with Lula and Rich with Bolsonaro.

So that’s another interesting factor to target in Election Day as well. Better to have an abstention of 21% or lower for increased Lula chances.

[Red Velvet]

From the Blonde famous Brazilian TV presenters who were absurdly big especially in the 90s, Xuxa is politically my favorite while also being the one with most famous past.

Xuxa Meneghel - Endorsed Lula publicly. Was by far the most famous of the three, having some international projection Queen of the Kids but now is more like the Queen of the Gays with her defense of social progressive agenda lol

Angélica Ksyvickis - Said the decision is very hard for her. She’s married to Luciano Huck so she screams to me like a PSDB type who dislikes Bolsonaro but cannot bring herself to go for Lula. Will likely nullify her vote or go for a third party candidate.

Eliana Michaelichen - Hinted identifying more with the right on Instagram and based on the vibes she gives, I think she’s voting for Bolsonaro again.

[Red Velvet]

Angélica endorsed Lula too.
She just tweeted some minutes ago
https://twitter.com/angelicaksy/status/1574953191711510528

LMAOO I bet she felt the pressure to do it after people started commenting about her after Xuxa did her public endorsement.

Glad that she jumped out of neutrality though because she had said the decision was hard for her and is likely a (reasonable, I guess) PSDB-leaning voter

So Xuxa and Angélica with Lula and Eliana with Bolsonaro…

[Red Velvet]

I decided my votes.

Federal Representative: Chico Alencar 5050
State Representative: Renata Souza 50007
Senator of Rio de Janeiro: Alessandro Molon 400
Governor of Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Freixo 40
President: Lula 13

Do you think Molon has a chance? I expected him to be quite irrelevant once Freixo and Lula started campaigning alongside Feliciano. Why hasn't that happened?

Not even Freixo benefits that much with the Lula association.

The voters PT are trying to cater to with Ceciliano will vote for Romário anyway. I bet Lula-Castro-Romário won’t be a small thing in Rio.

Even if the Left wasn’t divided between Molon and Ceciliano, they would struggle against Romário. The fact it IS divided just made it completely irrelevant to be concerned about the senator vote and takes away campaign energy from potential voters.

Lula likely wins in Rio but that will be the only decent thing from here. Castro will be Governor and Romario is even more locked for Senator.

[Red Velvet]

My votes:

Federal Representative: Heloísa Helena (REDE) 1818
State Representative: Martha Rocha (PDT) 12040
Senator of Rio de Janeiro: Alessandro Molon (PSB) 400
Governor of Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Freixo (PSB) 40
President: Lula (PT) 13

Decided to go for Freixo anyway to not split the vote but it’s useless. Even in a 2nd round he cannot win against Castro, unless there’s a major scandal released during campaign.

[Red Velvet]

Since we’re talking about celebrities votes, Neymar posted a video showing he will vote for Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Online rumors are saying that the DATAFOLHA poll that will be out later today has been leaked.

Lula 49% (+2)
Bolsonaro 32% (-1)
Tebet 6% (+1)
Ciro 4% (-3)

Let’s wait a bit more if this leak confirms itself. But considering it’s not even valid votes, shows easy victory on 1st round for Lula with around 52%-53% I am guessing.

[Red Velvet]

Thanks! It ended up being fake after all, but still mostly positive for Lula.

Basically both Lula and Bolsonaro grew 1 point while Ciro decreased 1 point. It will be really close to 50% in the end!

[Red Velvet]

Last debate started now

I’m glad this wasn’t covered here because anything with the presence of that fake priest Kelmon guy is an utter embarrassment bigger than Bolsonaro. Anything with his presence looks like a comedy sketch joke.

We do not deserve to hear these people. I know dumb electoral law obligated inviting even these irrelevant candidates who don’t even reach 0,5% if their party has seats in congress but a serious 1st round debate would NEVER invite more than five people. Invite only people who have at least 2% or 3% on the IPEC / Datafolha polls for Christ sake and limit it to a maximum of 5 people there to save time and give more time for the relevant candidates to talk.

That this one had seven and one of them was that Kelmo guy constantly disrespecting rules and not letting others talk in order to campaign for ANOTHER candidate (Bolsonaro) makes it impossible for any person to take this debate as serious conversations and proposals for the country. People watched it for the drama and to see the Priest be a mess and the moderator lecture Priest Kelmo for not following the debates rules.

Band debate, the 1st one, was the only somewhat serious one because the fake priest wasn’t present there.

[Red Velvet]

I will work in the election as a table worker and I think it’s much more practical this electronic way of collecting the voter finger digitals to confirm their identity automatically at the time. They just put their finger in the machine of the table president and their identity is immediately confirmed!

I think not that long ago, you collected the finger digitals manually to put in the election book, which takes a long time. Ugh, I love these electronic voting machines, they facilitate everything so much. I can even leave the work right after the vote is closed because I don’t have to help count anything.