Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Read this morning somewhere that the alleged DMR poll had Biden in 4th Place. Does anyone have the numbers for people placed 1-3 on the alleged leak?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sanders overwhelmingly won the first time caucus goers in 2016. So don’t expect the prior caucus group to be heavily against him since by definition that group will also include a very favorable subset for him

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What a mess. Anyway, people shouldn’t be writing Biden’s obituary yet. Yes, it looks like he did terribly, but last I checked, SC is still coming up, and Buttigieg is at 0% among black voters (and Sanders isn’t exactly doing great, either.) Assuming what we know is right, this hurts Biden (less than it would have if the results had come in properly) but unless another candidate scoops up a lot of his support, he’s nowhere near out of the race.

Yeah, Biden underperforming is definitely a far less talked about news story right now than it otherwise would've been, & that's good for him considering he doesn't really need Iowa at all to win the primary.

He's still done, though. He surely won't win New Hampshire or Nevada, either.

You dont come back from a 4th or 5th place finish in Iowa if you’re a Democrat. He’s done.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The fact Buttigieg is confidently declaring victory while the Sanders campaign isn't doing much to dispute it leads me to think the victor was Pete.

If you read what Buttigieg actually said, it does not say or imply that he believes he cane in first.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think Biden is done. He ain't going to win IA, he won't New Hampshire and Nevada as well. They're in huge Trouble.

If he comes indeed 4th or 5th you do wonder if that whole Hunter Biden/Burisma thing in the Impeachment Trail had a lingering effect of his Campaign.

I think it’s more the culmination of everything about Biden’s campaign thus far being so utterly underwhelming doing him in

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie winning 1st and 2nd ballot, but getting screwed by geographical distribution of the vote on the state delegates by the caucus system delegate apportionment being biased to rural areas

What a scam

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie winning 1st and 2nd ballot, but getting screwed by geographical distribution of the vote on the state delegates by the caucus system delegate apportionment being biased to rural areas

What a scam

Big news for Biden.

How does that even compute, Pete winning Iowa would allow him to be the moderate alternative to Biden

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Does anyone have results from first and final alignments instead of the dumb SDE counts?

Sanders is winning, but in true American form, the popular vote loser is winning

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1224817964886777864?s=20

Indeed. Sanders has no path now. Biden is basically inevitable.

Can you please actually explain your posts if you are going to make extremely controversial takes. I know you are better than SN.

Sanders needed to win Iowa. Without it, I don't think he has a path.

So Joe Biden who is currently barely at viability is going to skate to the nomination?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Even if Pete winds up winning, Bernie coming within 2% of first place is still a relatively positive outcome for him.

I must disagree. Without winning Iowa, he has lost. It’s over for his campaign because of this. He lost to Hillary by an even smaller margin and was still easily taken out. In a best case scenario, this goes contested and he loses.

The difference, of course, being that Hillary actually won Iowa. The presumed front runner in the race is currently at a distant fourth in Iowa

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Winning both popular votes and narrowly losing SDEs isn't a bad result for Sanders (assuming this all holds up). He solidly beat both of his serious opponents (Biden & Warren) on every measure.

I can guarantee you that Buttigieg isn't going to be a thing in any state with more than a few black & brown people in it.

MSM is mostly talking about how much of a disaster this was for Biden fwiw.

Yeah Buttigieg is a non-factor in every other state. Biden doing so poorly seems to be the sub headline

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Biden might actually survive this.

Even if he loses his frontrunner status, did anyone seriously think Biden would be crashing to like 3rd or 4th? Butti winning is good for Biden too.

Yes, I predicted Biden would get 4th

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Does it matter that Sanders won the raw vote? (As I predicted)

It feeds into the “it’s rigged against Bernie” meme for the low info people

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Numbers are probably wrong.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225168116994445312?s=20

They just keep on rigging it and rigging it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225145936671911937

He is the former Vice President and he got 4th place.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Dang it.

But again, no one's really going to notice this outside of here, so there won't be a huge effect on future primaries.

If Bernie wins 3 in a row before SC people will definitely notice

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why does NYT still have Iowa >95% Buttigieg?

Again it’s rigged

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How much did Bernie net off of CD3?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just putting together a list of data-points from this thread and elsewhere, I think the final margin is basically going to be this (2-4 delegate win for Buttigieg), unless there are more reporting errors and/or select precincts buck NYT's analysis.

Nevertheless, incredible.

It really depends how big of a share Warren takes from Bernie in the satellite for CD1

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie got blown out in states like Texas and Virginia in 2016. There's no way he's winning them, unless the field is still very, very divided.

Joe Biden is also no Hillary Clinton as evidenced by his pitiful performance here

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You can’t even make this stuff up anymore. Right as Sanders was about to pull into the lead, Perez halts the results. If Bernie doesn’t win the nomination, I’m voting Republican this fall just to punish this embarrassment of a party

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

There should be 100 % of the Caucus Vote in right now. Why is the IADP not going to release these Results? I don't get it!

Because they don’t want Bernie to get the momentum of an Iowa win before NH. If that sounds conspiratorial, whatever. Do people really think it’s a coincidence that the first 62% released were the most favorable Buttigieg batch?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I agree that a recanvass probably needs to happen - this whole thing was run so incompetently that it's funny, in a sad way - but why not release the full results? I don't like jumping on these conspiracy theories, but I honestly can't see this as anything other than the DNC trying to screw Bernie over. There's no reason to not release the full results unless you want to hide something.

I agree that a recanvass probably needs to happen - this whole thing was run so incompetently that it's funny, in a sad way - but why not release the full results? I don't like jumping on these conspiracy theories, but I honestly can't see this as anything other than the DNC trying to screw Pete over. There's no reason to not release the full results unless you want to hide something.

Is this a joke? Bernie by most accounts was poised to pull into the lead when all the results were in and Perez just called for a halt

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So Pete is pretty much Kasich now huh?

No, a Kasich figure would be Warren if she stays in as a vanity run just to try and win Massachusetts

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This just never ends.

Which will be declared first, the Iowa Democratic Caucus winner or the Iowa general election winner?

The 2024 Iowa Democratic primary