LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Edwards 44
Rispone 32
Abraham 20

Rispone wins runoff 54-46

LMAO

This is completely in the realm of possibility. Have you noticed how much JBE is struggling even despite the fact he’s popular?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here is my final Jungle Primary Prediction

Edwards 43%
Rispone 30%
Abraham 20%

If it's that close, Edwards is losing the runoff. 

Once Trump rallies the racists all bets are off. The early vote doesn’t give me any confidence at all. Likely D is way too generous

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The early vote numbers does not look good for Edwards.   I suspect he comes in around 45% in the primary.

Something like this. I’m not at all optimistic about this race’s trajectory

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I had no idea this election was today

I think Saturday’s make a lot more sense than having elections on Tuesdays

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Let the record show I will happily admit I was wrong if JBE wins tonight. I wonder if the same can be said when Bevin crushes it in three weeks

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE is doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE isn’t doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Conveniently ignores Jefferson, St. Tammany, Lafayette, and a bunch of others.

Are Jeffersonand St. Tammany not suburbs anymore?
Oh my bad I see auto correct put isn’t instead of is

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE is doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Wow, a Democrat during better in the suburbs and much worse in the rurals. What an unprecedented event in the modern political era. This one will go down in the history books.

But here is how IA-04 is likelier to flip than TX-10...

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Doesn't seem like there's enough votes left for JBE to crack 50% or for Abraham to overtake Rispone. Matchup looks set.

Yeah, I’m not optimistic about this runoff unlike the people rating it Likely D or whatever. A month of Trump rallies in Louisiana? Yikes

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

Is this a joke?

Why is it a joke? Rispone and Abraham are on track to get more votes than JBE combined. Wait til the GOP coalesces around one candidate

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

No. The fact that it’s Louisiana is hurting the Dems here

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

He didn’t clear 50 in too many of those runoff polls against Rispone. Only had him at 48 or 49, which is a dangerous place to be for a purportedly popular incumbent Democrat  in the south.

I’m calling it Lean R.

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Actually, strike that. I’ll go bold and say likely R for me. I’ll look like the Seer when all is said and done

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For reference, in the three polls we have with hypothetical runoff polling (in the last month) between JBE and Rispone, JBE gained 2%, 2%, and 7% without factoring in undecideds.

I can give you a clue how those undecideds will go

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Runoff: Lean D ---> Likely R

Are you high?

You’re right. Likely R is probably too generous to JBE unless Rispone is a pedophile

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

This. If it comes out that Rispone had an affair with a prostitute instead of paying tribute to our troops at a given point of time, I will adjust the race accordingly. Until then it’s Safe R.

And no, it’s not impeachment. JBE was polling the same even before it all. Republicans just hate all democrats no matter how conservative they are on Blue Lives Mattering or Collin kaepernick standing up for the pledge or how pro life they are

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I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

Because despite popular belief, the Republican base is far more partisan and inflexible than the Democratic base.

This is why I always laugh at "BLIMPF RLY CULD LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!" hot takes.

I could see Trump lose something like 54-44. He wouldn’t be losing Ohio or Iowa based on that though, that I can tell you lol

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

mrw Tillis and the GOP nominee in GA win by <1 point and McGrath loses by 20:

Only 20? That’s way too generous

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Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

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Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

Indeed he did. He also bravely stood up to Colin Kaepernick’s kneeling and the gays and he still got mercilessly clobbered by polarization

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.

The same urban-rural divide has infected the entire Western World. And it will only get worse in time. McCready lost because of the rural areas; now it looks like they may doom Edwards.

I think it’s safe for Democrats to concede all rural white heavy areas at this point and just devote all their attention on the suburbs and cities instead. No use chasing down voters who vote against their own economic interests because Sean hannity tells them to

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

The polls almost all showed JBE >= Abraham + Rispone. I don’t think any had the latter outpolling him by 5%. Doesn’t bode well!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

Yes. And still - he was, probably, "insufficiently conservative" for his voters. You don't expect winning Republican to vote differently, don't you?

Aren’t you the one always bellyaching about how Democrats don’t run enough moderate candidates or conservative candidates to fit their districts? This is what happens when they do! They lose anyway

Meanwhile Democrats will fall over themselves on their way to vote for “moderate” Republicans